The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[a2k]

 

30 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Well, I can’t quite put my finger on when it happened, but I guess I fell into the upside down. Time to step back for a bit and wait for midday updates/EOD Keyser.

 

38 minutes ago, a2k said:

Seems a bit optimistic compared to gloom-doom but the fan-base is massive and should turn up consistently early on at least.

 

Weekday	Date	Gross	% Hold	Cume
Thu	19 Dec 19	38.0		38.0
Fri	20 Dec 19	46.5	22.5	84.5
Sat	21 Dec 19	52.5	12.5	137.0
Sun	22 Dec 19	44.5	-15.0	181.5

 

84.5 od = 2.22x previews (TLJ 2.33x)

181.5 ow = 4.78x previews (TLJ 4.89x)

2.76x for 500+ (TLJ 2.82x)

 

Not optimistic other-wise. A week back 17% ow drop and 19% dom drop from TLJ was scraping the bottom of the barrel. Probably after reviews came out and pre-sales seem to slow down.

Edited December 19, 2019 by a2k

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

 

 

Seems a bit optimistic compared to gloom-doom but the fan-base is massive and should turn up consistently early on at least.

Your projection actually matches BOP's, and they are going with a prediction closer to their "optimistic" model than their "mid-range" one.

[charlie Jatinder]

@keysersoze123 if its doable, hit us with numbers at 6 PM EST before final update.

[FlashMaster659]

Going to be just one update today before shows start. Too much checking and counting to do two.

[keysersoze123]

MTC2 is running very slow. But MTC1 I just updated around 1130 and its at   476856/1013791 6974626.60. So it sold 20K since last night update. I will refresh again close to 5PM EST when the movie opens in East coast and post final updates at night.

 

I will update once i have mtc2 numbers.

 

MTC2 is at overall 4033 shows 311395/541678

Edited December 19, 2019 by keysersoze123

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC2 is running very slow. But MTC1 I just updated around 1130 and its at   476856/1013791 6974626.60. So it sold 20K since last night update. I will refresh again close to 5PM EST when the movie opens in East coast and post final updates at night.

 

I will update once i have mtc2 numbers.

 A 4% increase in 12+ hours on the final day. 

Hmm, maybe $30m is at risk also....

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 A 4% increase in 12+ hours on the final day. 

Hmm, maybe $30m is at risk also....

Dont be silly . its primetime shows have almost sold out or only shitty/special needs seats available . So % increase does not matter when it has sold almost 500K. if you look at Porthos's final update its not as if Endgame increased huge on % basis.

[Madhuvan]

35-37m is what I am expecting. 

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dont be silly . its primetime shows have almost sold out or only shitty/special needs seats available . So % increase does not matter when it has sold almost 500K. if you look at Porthos's final update its not as if Endgame increased huge on % basis.

Ive been so bummed out with all the bad news so far, but what are current preview numbers would you guess? 35

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

Ive been so bummed out with all the bad news so far, but what are current preview numbers would you guess? 35

5x MTC1 numbers would be my guess. Based on anecdotal search at smaller chains, it has sold lots of tickets there as well. But the bumps this week have been meh to put it in a nice way. So something like what Porthos is saying. I would say 38-40m range. I would post my final update at night and can take a guess.

 

Of course Deadline and others should have numbers before that.

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dont be silly . its primetime shows have almost sold out or only shitty/special needs seats available .

[cdsacken]

49 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Not really. Math doesn't allow for the possibility. 

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [11:55pm - 12:50pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	267	8856	27752	18896	68.09%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Sellouts Removed Since Last Night	1
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	8
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	327
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	589

 

T-0 Mid-Day Adjusted Comp #1 

	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	198.59		1053	9033		1/202	10114/19147	47.18%		41.11m
EG	71.05		1481	25248		79/333	5023/30271	83.41%		42.63m
TROS (adj)	n/a		501	17939		11/267	7721/25660	69.91%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-0 Mid-Day Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Solo	292.81		425	5303		2/142	8150/13453	39.42%		41.29m
TROS (adj)	n/a		407	15528		11/267	5860/21388	72.60%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

 

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	190.93		8133		15528		35.51m
Solo	268.23		5789		15528		37.82m
JW:FK	249.33		6228		15528		38.15m
AM&tW	337.20		4605		15528		38.78m
Venom	370.93		4493		16666		37.09m
CM	169.99		10553		17939		35.19m
EG	67.30		26655		17939		40.38m
TLK	163.42		10977		17939		37.59m
It 2	333.91		5659		18896		35.06m
AVG							37.29m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

 

===

 

Sigh.

[Porthos]

PROGRAMMING NOTE:
 

My final count will be about an hour earlier than normal, as I'm headed to a 5pm showing.  I'll almost certainly not have any time for analysis or anything like that.  So if Sacto is over-performing, keep in mind I'll be missing about an hour or so off my normal counts so don't adjust too much, if at all.

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Final Seat Report
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	5	2	43	13	1
Seats Added	281	375	3,778	4,224	321
Seats Sold	1,978	1,483	1,470	962	858
12/19/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	331	29,736	55,113	25,377	46.05%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	21	65	107	143	166

 

16 hours of tracking for today.

[XXR vs XXR]

Star Wars: TROS -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 3:30pm CST -- Preview Day 

 

 

Dolby Cinema
07:00pm: 205/205 -- SOLD OUT 

10:40pm: 170/205

02:15am: 43/205 

 

IMAX / IMAX 3D

06:00pm: 133/151 

09:40pm: 122/151 

01:20am: 24/151

 

Real 3D

06:00pm: 61/125 

06:20pm: 20/76

06:25pm: 25/76

06:30pm: 21/76 

06:45pm: 21/60

07:00pm: 21/60

07:15pm: 35/60

09:45pm: 43/125

10:05pm: 0/76

10:10pm: 0/76

10:30pm: 4/76

10:40pm: 0/60

10:50pm: 0/60

11:10pm: 2/60

01:45am: 0/76

 

Digital 

06:00pm: 114/147

06:15pm: 51/76

07:10pm: 95/147

07:30pm: 42/60
07:40pm: 20/44

07:45pm: 24/44 

08:00pm: 29/44

08:15pm: 28/44
08:30pm: 20/44

08:45pm: 81/125

09:50pm: 97/147

09:55pm: 46/76

10:00pm: 44/76
10:45pm: 26/147
11:00pm: 7/44

11:25pm: 13/44

11:40pm: 0/44

11:55pm: 2/44
12:00am: 0/44

12:25am: 15/125

1:30am: 15/147

1:40am: 1/76

 

Fan Event

05:00pm: 106/125

 

 

TOTAL

44 show times, 1826 tickets sold out of 4124 seats available (44.28%)

 

 

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Captain Marvel = 1440 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday

Avengers: Endgame = 3623 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday

Joker = 659 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday

[XXR vs XXR]

Looking at everything and my own prognosticative ability, my previews prediction will be....

$33 million 

[cdsacken]

Gimme 38

[a2k]

BOR's 189 projection might entail smth like
 

Weekday	Date	Gross	% Hold	Cume
Thu	19 Dec 19	40.0		40.0
Fri	20 Dec 19	49.0	22.5	89.0
Sat	21 Dec 19	53.9	10.0	142.9
Sun	22 Dec 19	45.8	-15.0	188.7

 

Would like to see it make it.

 

 

Weekday	Date	Gross	% Hold	Cume
Thu	19 Dec 19	39.0		39.0
Fri	20 Dec 19	47.8	22.5	86.8
Sat	21 Dec 19	52.6	10.0	139.3
Sun	22 Dec 19	44.7	-15.0	184.0

 

Weekday	Date	Gross	% Hold	Cume
Thu	19 Dec 19	38.0		38.0
Fri	20 Dec 19	46.6	22.5	84.6
Sat	21 Dec 19	51.2	10.0	135.8
Sun	22 Dec 19	43.5	-15.0	179.3

 

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by a2k

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Looking at everything and my own prognosticative ability, my previews prediction will be....

$33 million 

It should be already at or around there from Keyser's data. I'm expecting $4-5 million more based on the pace compared to Lion King. 37-38 million.