The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

It should be already at or around there from Keyser's data. I'm expecting $4-5 million more based on the pace compared to Lion King. 37-38 million.

I'm actually most curious how low the walk up percent is...I mean, there has to still be some non-reserved seating theaters, but I'd expect at reserved ones, there will be practically zero walk ups tonight...

[Welfin]

If $30m is in trouble then this may miss $150m...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But I think Cats will be okay

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Welfin said:

If $30m is in trouble then this may miss $150m...

not in trouble. neither is 35 in trouble.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'm actually most curious how low the walk up percent is...I mean, there has to still be some non-reserved seating theaters, but I'd expect at reserved ones, there will be practically zero walk ups tonight...

It'll still get some. Currently late pace is looking like about 70% of TLK from MTC2. TLK added about 7 million from this point, this may do 3-4 as it's fading fast relatively. So perhaps 36-37 but overall in that range.

[infamous5445]

What's a good preview number for TROS to have at least, lets say an 80%+ chance of making 200M OW?

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, infamous5445 said:

What's a good preview number for TROS to have at least, lets say an 80%+ chance of making 200M OW?

$39m 

[a2k]

A-grade trackers we are fortunate to have on this epic thread have given nice ranges of 36-38 to 38-40 last couple of pages.

 

Enough intel for Deadline to break the story soon 

 

At least something like "34-35+ and still growing with some saying we cannot rule out high-30s to even 40-41 according to one source who would not be named. If you see these numbers elsewhere remember we broke them first and they are quoting us."

[keysersoze123]

Quick update on SW9 previews. This is about 3 hours after last one.

 

MTC1 Prev - overall 6802 shows 494426/1023251 7215149.27
MTC2 Prev - overall 4199 shows 324066/554210 3969825.00

 

Trickle of shows are being added as well. Let us see how things go with walk ups. I will update at least MTC1 once in the evening and will update both late in the night. Dont forget unlike normal movies this has preview shows as late as 530AM !!!!

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, infamous5445 said:

What's a good preview number for TROS to have at least, lets say an 80%+ chance of making 200M OW?

 

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

$39m 

No way. With 39 it’s gotta be less than 50% to hit 200M. I’d say like 44M or so, since 43M needs a 4.65 IM and it’s not too hard to imagine missing that on a poorly reviewed finale.

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, infamous5445 said:

What's a good preview number for TROS to have at least, lets say an 80%+ chance of making 200M OW?

 

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

$39m 

 

12 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

 

No way. With 39 it’s gotta be less than 50% to hit 200M. I’d say like 44M or so, since 43M needs a 4.65 IM and it’s not too hard to imagine missing that on a poorly reviewed finale.

I agree with the above. It is not hitting 200m with a 39m preview. That is a preview to OW multi of 5.13. That is significantly above TFA (4.35x) and above TLJ as well (4.88x). For comparison it is just below Rogue One (5.34). Based on tracking reports from media, TROS's presales have been around that of TLJ and with this being a finale I think it will have a preview to OW multi below that of TLJ.

 

Let's say a multi of 4.7 will require previews of 42.5 whereas same multi as TLJ will require previews of 41m. So I think previews below 40 would rule out 200m. it needs a minimum 41m to have a chance. 

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:30pm - 4:30pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL showings with six or fewer seats left)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	32	272	8504	28045	19541	69.68%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day	21
Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	5
Total Sets Added Since Mid-Day	293
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	645

 

Final Adjusted Comp #1

	Time	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	5:30-6:30	175.27%		1520	9033		8/216	9439/19992	52.79%		36.28m
EG	4:30-5:30	69.39%		1407	26484		158/347	3718/30373	87.76%		41.63m
TLK	4:30-5:45	168.50%		1800	10977		7/289	17020/27997	39.21%		38.75m
TROS (adj)	3:30-4:30	n/a		557	18496		32/272	7345/25841	71.58%		n/a

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel, Endgame, and The Lion King. 

Final Adjusted Comp #2

	Time	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Solo	5:30-6:30	275.80%		486	5789		5/143	7732/13521	42.81%		38.89m
TROS (adj)	4:30-5:30	n/a		438	15966		32/272	5603/21569	74.02%		n/a

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

 

Comps off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	196.31%		8133		15966		36.51m
Solo	275.80%		5789		15966		38.89m
JW:FK	256.36%		6228		15966		39.22m
AM&tW	346.71%		4605		15966		39.87m
Venom	382.39%		4493		17181		38.24m
CM	175.27%		10553		18496		36.28m
EG	69.39%		26655		18496		41.63m
TLK	168.50%		10977		18496		38.75m
It 2	345.31%		5659		19541		36.26m
AVG							38.41m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

========

 

For the record, 20 showings for a total of 79 tickets sold were manually adjusted for showings with six seats or fewer left.  Before the adjustment, the count was as follows:

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	12	272	8583	28045	19462	68.09%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	566

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/18/2019 at 3:31 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2421

4011

60.36%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2147

3926

54.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12673	567	24620	51.47%	9	199

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 30.76M

Final Maleficent count comp: 35.94M

Final IT 2 count comp: 34.27M

Final Hobbs count comp: 35.82M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 37.36M

Final Lion King count comp: 38.42M

 

Average: 35.43M

 

Very disappointing day. The reviews might be hurting sales. Also the lack of more showtimes being added from 6-9PM isn't helping. But more should be added later this afternoon and evening. So, we'll see if there are enough openings in those hours for a big boost tomorrow. To get the average of my comps to 40M, there needs to be 1655 tickets sold between now and previews. Which is a big number to reach, perhaps too big of a number.

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2635

4011

65.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2363

4127

57.26%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
14264	1705	25227	56.54%	9	211

 

Showings removed: 1

Seats sold/total seats removed: 114

Showings added: 13

Seats added: 721

 

Frozen 2 count comp: 34.62M

Maleficent count comp: 40.45M

IT 2 count comp: 38.57M

Hobbs count comp: 40.32M

Adjusted OUATiH count comp: 42.24M

Lion King count comp: 43.24M

 

Average: 39.91M

 

I'm quite surprised it accomplished the goal of 1655 tickets that needed to be sold. Unfortunately a sold out showing was removed, so it seems like it was a false sell out. Nonetheless, it still made a net increase of 1591 tickets. It's possibly overperforming here, so I'll play it safe and go with 39M

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:00pm - 5:30pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	9	310	26064	61433	35369	42.43%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 3

Total Showings Added Today: 8

Total Seats Added Today: 1029

Total Seats Sold Today: 3103

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
Joker	309.51		8421		26064		41.17m
Frozen 2	403.45		6460		26064		34.29m

 

===

 

And we're finally done. I'm gonna go with $38M +/- $1M for the preview number.

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

 

Frozen 2 count comp: 34.62M

Maleficent count comp: 40.45M

IT 2 count comp: 38.57M

Hobbs count comp: 40.32M

Adjusted OUATiH count comp: 42.24M

Lion King count comp: 43.24M

 

Average: 39.91M

 

I'm quite surprised it accomplished the goal of 1655 tickets that needed to be sold. Unfortunately a sold out showing was removed, so it seems like it was a false sell out. Nonetheless, it still made a net increase of 1591 tickets. It's possibly overperforming here, so I'll play it safe and go with 39M

F2 has the biggest deviation. Removing both, the highest (TLK) and lowest (F2) the avg is 40.4m. It might turn out that F2 plays closer to SW9 somehow but as such seems like an outlier.

[Eric Duncan]

Cats Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	240	2,891	8.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

 

Comp

1.182x of Dora (1.48M)

1.067x of Abominable (693K)

0.727x of Addams Family (909K)

0.344x of Maleficent (792K)

1.387x of Last Christmas (798K)

0.825x of Charlie’s Angels (742K)

0.071x of Frozen II (607K)

0.266x of Jumanji (1.25M)

[charlie Jatinder]

Going by @keysersoze123 mid-day numbers, will say $36-37mn. Let's see what's final number.

[Eric Duncan]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	201	16,138	34,952	46.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,491

 

Comp

8.485x of Once Upon (49.21M)

4.659x of It: Chapter Two (48.92M)

3.287x of Joker (43.71M)

23.153x of Maleficent (53.25M)

18.528x of Terminator (43.54M)

4.801x of Frozen II (40.81M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.498x of Lion King (34.46M)

7.109x of Hobbs & Shaw (41.23M)

 

I guess in the end, my area might be overperforming, or it's just the lack of any megahits, but my data is positive...but I don't think it's happening. There's just too much opposing evidence for me to say otherwise. So I guess I'll follow the crowd and go with high-30s.

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	201	16,138	34,952	46.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,491

 

Comp

8.485x of Once Upon (49.21M)

4.659x of It: Chapter Two (48.92M)

3.287x of Joker (43.71M)

23.153x of Maleficent (53.25M)

18.528x of Terminator (43.54M)

4.801x of Frozen II (40.81M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.498x of Lion King (34.46M)

7.109x of Hobbs & Shaw (41.23M)

 

I guess in the end, my area might be overperforming, or it's just the lack of any megahits, but my data is positive...but I don't think it's happening. There's just too much opposing evidence for me to say otherwise. So I guess I'll follow the crowd and go with high-30s.

TO me only good comparison is Joker. Other movies are not comparable. But it could be over-performing in phily and that is not surprising.

 

FYI I should have an update soon.

[keysersoze123]

SW9 Previews (630PM PST update)

 

MTC1 Prev - overall 6881 shows 518305/1030783 7531769.31
MTC2 Prev - overall 4420 shows 341291/570321 4155121.00

 

About 40K tickets since my last update on 2 MTC. Sticking to high 30's for now.

 

[RockyMountain]

Just got back from the movie. I can see why critics were indifferent towards it as the plot is all over the place. However at the same time it is a very fun movie and full of action and has some nice nostalgia moments. Think this indeed might be one that goes over better with audiences than critics.