The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MattW]

38-39 seems like where it's at to me. 

 

[RockyMountain]

89% on audience rating for RT. Yep figured that would be the case.

[JB33]

Even if the audience loves it, tracking still suggests Star Wars is indeed losing parts of said audience at an alarming rate. High 30's previews? Up until recently (as in the last week or two) I hadn't even considered under 40. I guess the one hope is that those who did end up going opening weekend and loving it are able to convince the ones who didn't return for this one to go see it eventually. In that case this could be a leggy behemoth, despite likely having an alarmingly low OW.

[keysersoze123]

Update for Cats

 

MTC1 previews - overall 685 shows 11296/62100

 

I am thinking 0.5-0.6m previews. No point tracking this for OW.

[LegendaryBen]

50 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Update for Cats

 

MTC1 previews - overall 685 shows 11296/62100

 

I am thinking 0.5-0.6m previews. No point tracking this for OW.

Sub-$10M OW is possible.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Sub-$10M OW is possible.

I am not sure about that. these target family. it could have crazy preview to OW multi. Just that its not interesting. But what is interesting is it seems to have strong PS in korea where its opening next week !!!

[dxmatrixdt]

.

Edited June 26, 2020 by abusive brainwashed Christ

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Friday Seat Report: T-0 days @ Midnight
12/19/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	469	63,219	88,452	25,233	28.53%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	5	24	46	79	112

 

Gonna try to get another count in the morning.

Edited December 20, 2019 by ZackM

[keysersoze123]

On 12/18/2019 at 9:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9(T-1)

MTC1 Prev - overall 6639 shows 456501/1007630 6697499.61 +27933
MTC2 Prev - overall 3888 shows 297839/531164 3680091.00  +18928
MTC1 OD - overall 7876 shows 408986/1409370 6053025.69  +32255
MTC2 OD - overall 6130 shows 322828/935036 3465684.00 +28475
MTC1 D2 - overall 7882 shows 336608/1406219 4783433.60 +27969
MTC2 D2 - overall 6079 shows 262442/929105 2785509.00  +21704
MTC1 D3 - overall 7554 shows 214710/1363828 3058936.34  +21148
MTC2 D3 -  overall 6002 shows 164145/924711 1680303.00 +16152

 

I repasted D2/3 numbbers and so its same as afternoon. Numbers are higher across the board though not at a crazy level. Not sure its due to reviews or lack of availability of prime time seats. There is no question D1/2/3 have lots of seats available and so WOM will play a factor in its OW. Let us see how things go.

SW9 (Thursday END)

MTC1 Prev FINAL - overall 6792 shows 526597/1015531 7638050.75  +70096
MTC2 Prev  FINAL - overall 4439 shows 351871/571761 4271595.00 +54032

MTC1 OD - overall 7935 shows 455373/1415875 6648057.16   +46387
MTC2 OD - overall 6282 shows 362774/948569 3845100.00 +39946
MTC1 D2 - overall 7961 shows 365130/1417898 5150487.43 +28522
MTC2 D2 - overall 6133 shows 286998/933624 3031551.00  +24556
MTC1 D3 - overall 7629 shows 235902/1374858 3339269.23 +21192
MTC2 D3  - overall 6048 shows 182107/928521 1854682.00  +17962

 

Day 2/3 were updated in the afternoon. Excellent increase for OD tickets. Previews had a good day but its final week finish was weaker than what I thought late last week. I think range for previews is 38-40m and OW around 180-190m. What gives this an advantage is sunday being so close to christmas that it will have  a great hold.

 

I will look beyond OW on saturday but it was overall fun tracking such a huge PS seller. i dont think any other movie in 2020 will sell even half this number.

[Madhuvan]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 (Thursday END)

MTC1 Prev FINAL - overall 6792 shows 526597/1015531 7638050.75  +70096
MTC2 Prev  FINAL - overall 4439 shows 351871/571761 4271595.00 +54032

MTC1 OD - overall 7935 shows 455373/1415875 6648057.16   +46387
MTC2 OD - overall 6282 shows 362774/948569 3845100.00 +39946
MTC1 D2 - overall 7961 shows 365130/1417898 5150487.43 +28522
MTC2 D2 - overall 6133 shows 286998/933624 3031551.00  +24556
MTC1 D3 - overall 7629 shows 235902/1374858 3339269.23 +21192
MTC2 D3  - overall 6048 shows 182107/928521 1854682.00  +17962

 

Day 2/3 were updated in the afternoon. Excellent increase for OD tickets. Previews had a good day but its final week finish was weaker than what I thought late last week. I think range for previews is 38-40m and OW around 180-190m. What gives this an advantage is sunday being so close to christmas that it will have  a great hold.

 

I will look beyond OW on saturday but it was overall fun tracking such a huge PS seller. i dont think any other movie in 2020 will sell even half this number.

Black Widow can sell more than half of this PS. Marvel while being very strong on Saturday is also becoming PS heavy. 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Black Widow can sell more than half of this PS. Marvel while being very strong on Saturday is also becoming PS heavy. 

Considering even Spidey was no where near half this number, i dont see BW going that high. . Anyway Let us wait and see. That is more than 4 months away.

[jb007]

Just got out. Fantastic movie. Loved it. Critics can sivk ass. 

[Marek the Jedi]

 

33 minutes ago, jb007 said:

Just got out. Fantastic movie. Loved it. Critics can sivk ass. 

ohhh cool!
I am so glad! that means I will probably love it too!!!

7 more hours for my IMAX  and 10 hours for second IMAX

thanx @jb007

[jb007]

6 minutes ago, Marek the Jedi said:

 

ohhh cool!
I am so glad! that means I will probably love it too!!!

7 more hours for my IMAX  and 10 hours for second IMAX

thanx @jb007

Marek, you will enjoy thoroughly. Have a good time. 😎😎😎

[charlie Jatinder]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Final

 

MTC 1: $34mn

 

At same time

Endgame: $52mn Approx

The Last Jedi: $36.2mn

The Force Awakens: $36.2mn

 

MTC 2: $19.5mn

 

At same time

Endgame: $31mn Approx 

The Lion King: $12mn

 

Nationwide estimates: $123mn

At same time

Endgame: $193mn

The Force Awakens: $130mn

The Last Jedi: $130mn

The Lion King: $74mn 

 

Note: All these numbers include a good amount of estimation. The system is working well but there's always margin of error, take +/-5%.

 

http://bit.ly/JatUSPS

[charlie Jatinder]

Well per my calculations; its $38 Million previews.

From Friday pre sales I expect $47mn Approx. Let's see what the actual numbers show us tonight.

[dakus]

2 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Well per my calculations; its $38 Million previews.

From Friday pre sales I expect $47mn Approx. Let's see what the actual numbers show us tonight.

What do you think about Deadlines 44-48M? Thats a pretty shocking divergence from your numbers.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, dakus said:

What do you think about Deadlines 44-48M? Thats a pretty shocking divergence from your numbers.

From my experience, that's how media reports. For underperformers they will start with a little optimistic numbers and for overperformers, slightly lower.

 

MTC 1 suggests $37.5mn Approx while MTC 2 suggests $38.75mn, it shall be in between only.

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

From my experience, that's how media reports. For underperformers they will start with a little optimistic numbers and for overperformers, slightly lower.

 

MTC 1 suggests $37.5mn Approx while MTC 2 suggests $38.75mn, it shall be in between only.

Yeah, see this is why I'm not going to bed with those Deadline numbers at all. I feel like $38M is a good number. Hoping for as good an OD multi as possible via WOM.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, dakus said:

What do you think about Deadlines 44-48M? Thats a pretty shocking divergence from your numbers.

 

(Would have posted this reaction gif in the WE thread but I didn't think about until later.  Mostly coz I find it really unbelievable so it didn't even cross my mind to use this reaction. )

Edited December 20, 2019 by Porthos