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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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$38M * 4.35 (SW:TFA IM) = $165.3M first weekend
$38M * 4.89 (SW:TLJ IM) = $185.8M first weekend
$38M * 5.43 = $206.3M first weekend

 

Deadline:

$44M * 4.35 (SW:TFA IM) = $191.4M first weekend
$48M * 4.35 (SW:TFA IM) = $208.8M first weekend
$44M * 4.89 (SW:TLJ IM) = $215.16M first weekend
$48M * 4.89 (SW:TLJ IM) = $234.72M first weekend
$44M * 5.43 = $238.92M first weekend
$48M * 5.43 = $260.64M first weekend

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2 hours ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

$38M * 4.35 (SW:TFA IM) = $165.3M first weekend
$38M * 4.89 (SW:TLJ IM) = $185.8M first weekend
$38M * 5.43 = $206.3M first weekend

 

Deadline:

$44M * 4.35 (SW:TFA IM) = $191.4M first weekend
$48M * 4.35 (SW:TFA IM) = $208.8M first weekend
$44M * 4.89 (SW:TLJ IM) = $215.16M first weekend
$48M * 4.89 (SW:TLJ IM) = $234.72M first weekend
$44M * 5.43 = $238.92M first weekend
$48M * 5.43 = $260.64M first weekend

Why would you use $48M

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Deadline clearly pained at us smearing them hurled out at an 'FU I don't need your thread' number. Next update probably will be 40-42 before Disney reports the official number in between 38-40.

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1 minute ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Why would you use $48M

Deadline early numbers have it at 44-48

 

The question is where 5.43 comes from?    Is it RO's 5.34 internal with the last two numbers accidentally swapped?

 

Regardless, the higher the preview the lower the internal multi so if it's between 44-48 the multi would most likely be in TLJ area for 44 and lower for 48.

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6 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Without wanting to be rude, how the bloody hell does Deadline suddenly say 44-48M???

If they (based on the resale thread on here) want to be optimistic they should have said 40M.

Pretty sure they have their own sources.  We only joke they're getting the numbers from this board.

 

That doesn't mean the sources are more accurate though. 

 

It was funny when they whiffed on AIW previews giving both $36-38m and $40-45m estimates and  it was the one number they didn't claim - $39m

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1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Pretty sure they have their own sources.  We only joke they're getting the numbers from this board.

 

That doesn't mean the sources are more accurate though. 

 

It was funny when they whiffed on AIW previews giving both $36-38m and $40-45m estimates and  it was the one number they didn't claim - $39m

 

 

Remember when IW got that preview and we declared the opening weekend record safe...

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Remember when IW got that preview and we declared the opening weekend record safe...

Even after Friday it was almost safe. Then when I looked at Saturday numbers waking up in morning in India, those were crazy. That made it clear that OW is gone.

 

Deadline 45 estimates

Spoiler

 

 

39 Actuals

Spoiler

 

 

After Friday numbers

Spoiler

 

 

And Saturday

Spoiler

 

 

Edited by Jedi Jat
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2 hours ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Does Deadline check this thread?

i don't think so, the forum teases deadline - if they did keep an eye on the thread it would help them refine their numbers imo.

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2 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Even after Friday it was almost safe. Then when I looked at Saturday numbers waking up in morning in India, those were crazy. That made it clear that OW is gone.

 

IW and Endgame Saturday are the busiest days ever at the box office for a single film (if we look at just day business) 

 

Smashed the single attendance records at my local theater.

Police had to be called to direct traffic and people were parking on the grass and illegally. 

 

 

I watched Endgame Saturday at 11:30pm and the theater looked like a riot took place, garbage everywhere and the employees looked like they were fully exhausted and worn out.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

Spoiler

IW and Endgame Saturday are the busiest days ever at the box office for a single film (if we look at just day business) 

Smashed the single attendance records at my local theater.

Police had to be called to direct traffic and people were parking on the grass and illegally. 

I watched Endgame Saturday at 11:30pm and the theater looked like a riot took place, garbage everywhere and the employees looked like they were fully exhausted and worn out

 

And then Endgame beat that by just Friday and then annihilated on Saturday.

Edited by Jedi Jat
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The Rise of Skywalker Premiere Night Seat Report at a Theater in Wisconsin, USA:

 

Theater location: a city in the state of Wisconsin, USA with a population between 40,000 and 90,000. There are no theaters within 10 miles of this theater.

Tracking: manual counting using fandango.com. Every seat report was taken between 5 and 15 minutes after a given show's start time, so hopefully closely reflects final sales.

Theater chain: not MTC 1 or MTC 2.

Numbers in parentheses exclude wheelchair-related spaces and seats.

 

Standard shows:

6:30: 99/112 (98/101)

7:00: 119/127 (116/116)

7:30: 93/112 (93/101)

8:30: 45/49 (45/45)

9:00: 53/62 (53/54)

9:30: 47/62 (47/54)

10:00: 84/112 (84/101)

10:35: 102/127 (100/116)

11:00: 70/112 (70/101)

12:00: 29/49 (29/45)

12:30: 32/62 (32/54)

 

3D shows:

8:00: 45/62 (45/54)

11:30: 9/62 (9/54)

 

Recliner with premium sound shows:

6:00: 159/164 (153/153)

9:30: 157/164 (153/153)

 

Total:

1143/1438 [79.5%] (1127/1302 [86.6%])

 

Total as of November 6:

658/1438 [45.8%]

 

Comps (probably useless):

Ford v Ferrari: 79/224, $2.1M domestic, $30.4M comp

Frozen 2: 472/930, $8.5M domestic, $20.6M comp

Knives Out: 84/124, $1.66M domestic, $22.6M comp

Playmobil: 2/49, $0.04M domestic, $22.9M comp

Jumanji The Next Level: 216/1076, $4.7M domestic, $24.9M comp

 

It seems that TROS underperformed in this theater, making the comps likely useless. Perhaps the underperformance is because the theater did not give enough early evening shows to TROS?

Edited by Wisk
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CINEPLEX BANQUE SCOTIA MONTREAL

 

STAR WARS : THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - THURS DEC 19 2019 (FINAL)

 

Regular (Fan Event)

5:00pm - 226/226

Regular

8:00pm - 309/314

8:30pm - 157/163

9:00pm - 201/226

11:30pm - 217/314

11:59pm - 106/163

12:10am - 6/313

Regular 3D

7:00pm - 331/347

7:30pm - 330/390

10:30pm - 236/347

11:00pm - 141/390

UltraAvX 3D

6:00pm - 369/378

9:30pm - 341/378

IMAX 3D

6:30pm - 335/343

10:00pm - 336/343

 

3641/4635 (78.55%)

 

These are the final sales from last night. The comps were all over the place. The family movies put it too high while the fanboy movies put it too low. There was a KOTM comp that had it in deadlines range though. I'm interested to see the number.

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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Friday Seat Report: T-0 days @ 10am
           
12/20/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 470 62,013 88,574 26,561 29.99%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 4 27 50 83 117

 

 

Final update for Friday.

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Disney is reporting 40m according to Deadline.

 

Probably finish somewhere between 190-200.  Think this film might end up being leggier than people were expecting as it does seem like it has been received far better from audiences than it was from critics.

Edited by RockyMountain
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