The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Atreides]

On an unrelated note to all the lightsabers, while a couple theaters already had it up, just not ones I track, a good number of theaters have Dolittle showtimes (previews start at 5). I'm happy at least that I don't have to spend hours on this one lol

[XXR vs XXR]

Looking to next year, here is a rough list of films for which I'll do final preview numbers in 2020. Bold red films are the ones I plan on doing bi-weekly from when tickets go on sale. I don't see any film going over $20m in previews next year. 

 

 

Birds of Prey ($5.5m)

Onward ($3.6m)
A Quiet Place: Part II ($7m)

Mulan ($12m)

No Time To Die (Wednesday release, $23m OD)

Black Widow ($15.5m)
Fast & Furious 9 ($7m)
Artemis Fowl ($2.2m)
Wonder Woman 1984 ($16m)

Soul ($4.5m)
Top Gun: Maverick ($5.1m)

Tenet ($6.5m)
Jungle Cruise ($6m)
Morbius ($7m)
Venom 2 ($10.5m)
The Eternals ($13m)

Godzilla vs Kong ($6m)

Dune ($4m) 

Edit: Added my preview predictions. Lets see how I do! 

 

Edited December 20, 2019 by VenomXXR

[RockyMountain]

Worldwide so far is near a 100m (again taken from deadline which seems to be getting their info straight from Disney).

[cdsacken]

I knew the low 30s were impossible. Too many open seats for no walkups.

 

Edited December 20, 2019 by cdsacken

[Porthos]

18 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:30pm - 4:30pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL showings with six or fewer seats left)

Comps off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	196.31%		8133		15966		36.51m
Solo	275.80%		5789		15966		38.89m
JW:FK	256.36%		6228		15966		39.22m
AM&tW	346.71%		4605		15966		39.87m
Venom	382.39%		4493		17181		38.24m
CM	175.27%		10553		18496		36.28m
EG	69.39%		26655		18496		41.63m
TLK	168.50%		10977		18496		38.75m
It 2	345.31%		5659		19541		36.26m
AVG							38.41m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

When I get a chance, I'm going to reformat this to look like my regular blocks (I used Google Sheets to automate EVERYTHING in an attempt to get to see my movie on time [folks who read the WE thread know how THAT turned out])

 

But it is interesting.  If I remove DP2 and It 2 (no 3D),  I get 38.83m (turns out I used the wrong formula on Google Sheet for AM2, dragging that comp up - whoops).

 

Ironically, if I then remove Captain Marvel, in retrospect the clear outlier, I get 39.25m.  Now I didn't know I could remove CM, and I probably would have removed EG for being too high.  

 

Still, only being off by 1.85m isn't too bad for such a moving target.  Especially since I stopped an hour earlier than I normally would. 

Looking at all the realistic comps I had every last one came in under except for Endgame (41.6m).  Closest one was JW:FK at 39.22m

 

So even with that missing hour, pretty clear that Sacto actually slightly underperformed on one level.  Which is certainly ironic given all the chatter in this thread for months.

The other explanation is those late night showings that got added at the last minute filled up at a slightly quicker pace than normal, dragging the comp up a bit.  Prob a bit of both in the end.

[Justin4125]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ironically, if I then remove Captain Marvel, in retrospect the clear outlier, I get 39.25m.  Now I didn't know I could remove CM, and I probably would have removed EG for being too high.  

Continuing your nearly impeccable track record, thanks for the consistent stream of info. Its amazing just how informative Sacto is as a region

[cdsacken]

It's amazing. We thought early on it could be 45+ then people freaked and some thought walk-ups would be zero. Yet porthos absolutely nailed it.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

It's amazing. We thought early on it could be 45+ then people freaked and some thought walk-ups would be zero. Yet porthos absolutely nailed it.

No no, I the credit this time goes to @Inceptionzq:

 

18 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2635

4011

65.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2363

4127

57.26%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
14264	1705	25227	56.54%	9	211

 

Showings removed: 1

Seats sold/total seats removed: 114

Showings added: 13

Seats added: 721

 

Frozen 2 count comp: 34.62M

Maleficent count comp: 40.45M

IT 2 count comp: 38.57M

Hobbs count comp: 40.32M

Adjusted OUATiH count comp: 42.24M

Lion King count comp: 43.24M

 

Average: 39.91M

 

I'm quite surprised it accomplished the goal of 1655 tickets that needed to be sold. Unfortunately a sold out showing was removed, so it seems like it was a false sell out. Nonetheless, it still made a net increase of 1591 tickets. It's possibly overperforming here, so I'll play it safe and go with 39M

He nailed it almost exactly.  If he had the courage to listen to his comps he would have nailed it precisely by rounding up.

 

'grats, Inceptionzq. 👍

 

...

 

Next time, don't listen to peer-pressure.  

 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Porthos

[a2k]

18 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 count comp: 34.62M

Maleficent count comp: 40.45M

IT 2 count comp: 38.57M

Hobbs count comp: 40.32M

Adjusted OUATiH count comp: 42.24M

Lion King count comp: 43.24M

 

Average: 39.91M

 

[XXR vs XXR]

22 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Looking at everything and my own prognosticative ability, my previews prediction will be....

$33 million 

 

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Looking at everything and my own prognosticative ability, my previews prediction will be....

$33 million 

 

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Your application for Deadline has been processed and approved.  You begin work in the New Year.

 

(thanks for having such a good sense of humor about missing the comp )

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Your application for Deadline has been processed and approved.  You begin work in the New Year.

 

(thanks for having such a good sense of humor about missing the comp )

 

Actually, WeGotThisCovered wants me to run their newly formed box office unit 😎

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Looking to next year, here is a rough list of films for which I'll do final preview numbers in 2020. Bold red films are the ones I plan on doing bi-weekly from when tickets go on sale. I don't see any film going over $20m in previews next year. 

 

 

Birds of Prey ($5.5m)

Onward ($3.6m)
A Quiet Place: Part II ($7m)

Mulan ($12m)

No Time To Die (Wednesday release, $23m OD)

Black Widow ($15.5m)
Fast & Furious 9 ($7m)
Artemis Fowl ($2.2m)
Wonder Woman 1984 ($16m)

Soul ($4.5m)
Top Gun: Maverick ($5.1m)

Tenet ($6.5m)
Jungle Cruise ($6m)
Morbius ($7m)
Venom 2 ($10.5m)
The Eternals ($13m)

Godzilla vs Kong ($6m)

Dune ($4m) 

Edit: Added my preview predictions. Lets see how I do! 

 

You snub 1/5 movies you have over 10M, and it’s the one you’re named after 😛     
 

At the moment I pretty much agree on what the biggest 5 previews this thread will track will be, tentatively maybe:  

BW 18  

WW84 16

Eternals 16

Venom 2 11.5

Mulan 11    
 

So only serious 20+ shots would be (ordered):

BW

Eternals

WW84   
 

Hope at least one of them makes it.  
 

Edit: Also looking at this list, it occurs to me that Hollywood big numbers are about to become even more CBM dominated with SW going dormant and a lot of heavy hitter LA remakes and animated sequels just burned through.

Edited December 20, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[cdsacken]

@Inceptionzq you legend you. Well done.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

So is TROS looking good?

[Porthos]

34 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

So is TROS looking good?

Better than it was  yesterday or the day before at least.  Don't believe we've gotten much word how True Friday is playing out yet.

[Legion Again]

54 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

So is TROS looking good?

 

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Better than it was  yesterday or the day before at least.  Don't believe we've gotten much word how True Friday is playing out yet.

Jat 47-52, DL 50

[JB33]

Hoping for as much over 50 for true Friday as possible. There's toxicity around this movie but it sounds like amidst it all there's quite a positive GA reaction. Hopefully that kicks in today and over the weekend.

[Tinalera]

Double post

Edited December 20, 2019 by Tinalera
Double

[Tinalera]

Anecdotal. People ive talked like it, consensus mong them it will do better than tlj not as much as tfa. They said theyre waiting dvd for rewatch theres a lot to unpack exposition wise. They enjoyedit but  basically said " its time to move on" as far as new storiesand characters