The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ZackM]

First look at ticket sales for tomorrow.

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Saturday Seat Report: T-1 days @ 6pm
12/20/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	470	69,358	89,727	20,369	22.70%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	5	25	50	89

[Eric Duncan]

Dolittle Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	19	24	4,585	0.52%

 

Comp

0.320x of Maleficent (736K)

 

Nothing really noteworthy here. It's still a good month away, it's not really a presales-driven property, most people are more focused on stuff this Christmas, sales probably won't go into full effect until New Year's, blah blah blah.

[keysersoze123]

On 12/19/2019 at 10:07 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 (Thursday END)

 

MTC1 D2 - overall 7961 shows 365130/1417898 5150487.43 +28522
MTC2 D2 - overall 6133 shows 286998/933624 3031551.00  +24556
MTC1 D3 - overall 7629 shows 235902/1374858 3339269.23 +21192
MTC2 D3  - overall 6048 shows 182107/928521 1854682.00  +17962

 

 

SW9

MTC1 D2 - overall 8070 shows 442604/1428072 6107536.17 +67474
MTC2 D2 - overall 6175 shows 345669/936464 3609415.00 +58671
MTC1 D3 - overall 7696 shows 266607/1380910 3734593.61  +30705
MTC2 D3 - overall 6089 shows 207661/931810 2102856.00 +25554

 

Day 3 numbers were taken in the afteroon. Day 2 numbers are for around 30 hours.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Seems like $51-52mn Saturday from Keyser numbers.

Edited December 21, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

any word on Friday?

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

any word on Friday?

88.5-89.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

88.5-89.

this is Domestic right?

 

with Thursday that gives us about 129, so 180 OW seems locked right ?

[StarWarsMemer]

3So pure Friday increased 22%ish from previews compared to the 32.6% increase of TLJ. If this has the same pure Friday to Sat and Sun ratio as TLJ, then it'll gross 182.9M. Not bad

[Andreas]

6 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

this is Domestic right?

 

with Thursday that gives us about 129, so 180 OW seems locked right ?

It's $88.5-89M WITH thursday previews. So $48.5-49M Fri...

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, StarWarsMemer said:

3So pure Friday increased 22%ish from previews compared to the 32.6% increase of TLJ. If this has the same pure Friday to Sat and Sun ratio as TLJ, then it'll gross 182.9M. Not bad

this would get me more excited if not for the terrible cinemascore

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, Andreas said:

It's $88.5-89M WITH thursday previews. So $48.5-49M Fri...

OOF

[charlie Jatinder]

Me and @Arendelle Legion were having a discussion earlier today. I think TFA previews aren't $57mn but something around $53-54mn. The numbers and trend we have prove that True Friday of TFA was something around $65-66mn.

[Inceptionzq]

8 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Me and @Arendelle Legion were having a discussion earlier today. I think TFA previews aren't $57mn but something around $53-54mn. The numbers and trend we have prove that True Friday of TFA was something around $65-66mn.

What numbers and trends prove that? And why would they fudge previews when 53-54M would’ve smashed the record anyways?

[Darth Lehnsherr]

5 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

What numbers and trends prove that? And why would they fudge previews when 53-54M would’ve smashed the record anyways?

Maybe they think cause TLJ and TROS was more backloaded in terms of Previews to OD than TFA? But then I always thought it made complete sense as to why that was the case.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

predictions for WW total now ?

[charlie Jatinder]

30 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

What numbers and trends prove that? And why would they fudge previews when 53-54M would’ve smashed the record anyways?

ohh so I posted it. I thought I deleted it 😛

basically the Friday hourly numbers suggest $65mn plus number at least. I went to TFA thread and yeah both RTH and Deadline had it over 125+ OD.

 

Now I am not saying Disney fudged it. Just that they gave $57mn numbers, actuals might have come lower. At end of day $119.xx is actual opening day and since no one really care about previews reporting, they didn't bother correcting it and we assumed that $62mn is true Friday.

 

That would make sense in lot of areas.

[a2k]

4 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Seems like $51-52mn Saturday from Keyser numbers.

49 true Fri, 52 Sat followed by -14% Sun will give it 186 ow (4.65x the previews compared to 4.89x for TLJ ... normal sequel behavior).

[Legion Again]

Now that we”re about to have a sample size of 3, there are several things* about the Disney main Saga weekend behavior that make a lot of sense if TFA’s OD actual of 119.119 is more of a 54-65 split and very little sense with a 57-62 split. They key here is that Disney doesn't need to actually “fudge” anything for the discrepancy to arise, because there are only 2 numbers that actually get reported by Disney (or any other studios): preview estimate and OD (preview+true Fri) actual. If the preview actual is below the preview estimate, which is especially understandable if you’re doing 50% more preview business than the record, this won’t show up in any kind of “preview actual” on Monday because the convention is to pretend like previews are a part of the Friday daily. So the quantity of “OD actual minus preview estimate” vs “True Fri actual” actually has a small % error for all movies, not because of any effort to mislead from any studio but because of basic reporting conventions. In this case it makes sense that a relatively large % error is possible because of the unprecedented nature of the preview gross, and we’re just saying that of the plausible actual splits of — e.g. 60+59, 59+60, 58+61, 57+ 62 (what has been historically assumed because of the preview est), 56+63, 55+64, 54+65, 53+66 etc — the latter ones are a lot more consistent with certain public data and certain private data.   
 

*Those things include:  

1) Preview to true Fri bump

2) true Fri to Sat bump

3) true Fri to true FSS multiplier 

4) true Fri est from Rth 

5) true Fri est from DL (late night est, not joke est)

6) comscore details I won’t share without approval

7) comscore details I won’t share without approval

Edited December 21, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[ZackM]

17 hours ago, ZackM said:

First look at ticket sales for tomorrow.

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Saturday Seat Report: T-1 days @ 6pm
12/20/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	470	69,358	89,727	20,369	22.70%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	5	25	50	89

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Saturday Seat Report: T-0 days @ 11am
12/21/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	470	65,920	90,784	24,864	27.39%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	3	14	47	82	132

 

A little less than Friday's numbers at around the same time.  Should have a lot more walk-ups today, though.

[MattW]

10 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

ohh so I posted it. I thought I deleted it 😛

basically the Friday hourly numbers suggest $65mn plus number at least. I went to TFA thread and yeah both RTH and Deadline had it over 125+ OD.

 

Now I am not saying Disney fudged it. Just that they gave $57mn numbers, actuals might have come lower. At end of day $119.xx is actual opening day and since no one really care about previews reporting, they didn't bother correcting it and we assumed that $62mn is true Friday.

 

That would make sense in lot of areas.

Interesting. I've wondered for a while how precise preview numbers actually are. Do you have access to see more accurately for past movies or just the current numbers?  What were IW and EG's true Thurs/Fri split?