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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 D4  - overall 6706 shows 206330/1219367 2816271.62  +48616
MTC2 D4 - overall 5475 shows 191643/862015 1860548.00  +44612

Well, this is best day so far IMO. Looks like $29mn. I think it will drop in mid 20s on Tuesday and then stay above 30 till Friday. Perhaps $385mn plus by Sunday. Full run $550mn plus.

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19 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Well, this is best day so far IMO. Looks like $29mn. I think it will drop in mid 20s on Tuesday and then stay above 30 till Friday. Perhaps $385mn plus by Sunday. Full run $550mn plus.

Wow....that's refreshing news.

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4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mid 20s would be a great hold, but I think low 20s is more likely. Christmas Eve usually drops harder than that, no?

I think it'll actually drop even more than that, then jump huge on Christmas Day. I expect Christmas Eve to go under $20M.

 

What say you @Jedi Jat?

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13 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mid 20s would be a great hold, but I think low 20s is more likely. Christmas Eve usually drops harder than that, no?

29 would be a Mon drop almost exactly mirroring Smaug from the most recent year with the same calendar. Dropped 33% on Eve Tuesday, so I would consider TROS doing well to do 20+

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3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

29 would be a Mon drop almost exactly mirroring Smaug from the most recent year with the same calendar. Dropped 33% on Eve Tuesday, so I would consider TROS doing well to do 20+

Behaving exactly like Anchorman 2 as well on Sunday, and if Charlie's Monday estimate ends up correct then the Monday drop would be exactly on par as well (-26.6% for Anchorman 2).

 

Thing is, Anchorman dropped a massive 51.1% on Eve Tuesday. I'm guessing a franchise fantasy film like Star Wars or Hobbit performs better on Christmas Eve than a comedy.

Edited by JB33
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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Why there is no tracking on Little Women?? is it doing very negligible business? 

im curious about Little Women sales too. anyone?

Edited by babz06
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1 minute ago, RockyMountain said:

550 domestic and WW total of over a billion would be good. Would make the movie still pretty profitable but low enough of a total to let them know that they need to do things a little differently than they did with the ST.

A 300m drop from the last film (which already dropped 700 from its predecessor) is terrible. Nothing good about any of this, I must say. 

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4 minutes ago, Welfin said:

A 300m drop from the last film (which already dropped 700 from its predecessor) is terrible. Nothing good about any of this, I must say. 

It would be terrible if this was actually a real good film and people were still choosing to not show up. But it was a film with a whole lot of problems which seemed to be a result of very poor planning. A movie like that crossing a billion is all we should expect.

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7 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Well, this is best day so far IMO. Looks like $29mn. I think it will drop in mid 20s on Tuesday and then stay above 30 till Friday. Perhaps $385mn plus by Sunday. Full run $550mn plus.

375 10-day guess

Weekday Date Gross % Hold Cume  
Previews 19 Dec 19 40.0   40.0  
Fri 20 Dec 19 49.0 24.0 89.0  
Sat 21 Dec 19 47.5 -4.0 136.5  
Sun 22 Dec 19 40.0 -16.8 176.5 176.5 ow
Mon 23 Dec 19 28.0 -30.0 204.5  
Tue 24 Dec 19 19.6 -30.0 224.1  
Wed 25 Dec 19 27.4 40.0 251.5  
Thu 26 Dec 19 30.2 10.0 281.7 105.2 M-Th
Fri 27 Dec 19 31.7 5.0 313.4  
Sat 28 Dec 19 33.3 5.0 346.7  
Sun 29 Dec 19 28.3 -15.0 375.0 93.3 (-47%)
Edited by a2k
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48 minutes ago, a2k said:

375 10-day guess

Weekday Date Gross % Hold Cume  
Previews 19 Dec 19 40.0   40.0  
Fri 20 Dec 19 49.0 24.0 89.0  
Sat 21 Dec 19 47.5 -4.0 136.5  
Sun 22 Dec 19 40.0 -16.8 176.5 176.5 ow
Mon 23 Dec 19 28.0 -30.0 204.5  
Tue 24 Dec 19 19.6 -30.0 224.1  
Wed 25 Dec 19 27.4 40.0 251.5  
Thu 26 Dec 19 30.2 10.0 281.7 105.2 M-Th
Fri 27 Dec 19 31.7 5.0 313.4  
Sat 28 Dec 19 33.3 5.0 346.7  
Sun 29 Dec 19 28.3 -15.0 375.0 93.3 (-47%)

Going by your estimates with a 93m second weekend. 

93*2.5= 232.5m 

375+232.5= 612.5m 

That would be very good. 

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18 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Going by your estimates with a 93m second weekend. 

93*2.5= 232.5m 

375+232.5= 612.5m 

That would be very good. 

nearly impossible to add 2.5x this particular 2nd weekend for TROS imo

2x more for 560 would be the hopeful finish with my numbers.

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7 hours ago, babz06 said:

im curious about Little Women sales too. anyone?

I have been looking at the major cities on Fandango and it does appear to be selling really well. In NYC in particular it's almost sold out a handful of showtimes in some really big auditoriums.

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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Monday Seat Report: T-0 days @ 11am
           
12/23/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 434 73,091 84,571 11,480 13.57%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 2 2 3 13 27

 

My numbers line up pretty well with what's been predicted already.  About 3/4 of what Sunday had sold at the same time and a little less than half of what Saturday had sold, but walk-ups should be more similar to Sunday, so high 20s works out nicely.

Edited by ZackM
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