The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[jedijake]

57 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Say $27.5mn

That's pre-walk ups yah? I can't see TROS dropping 14.5% when both Hobbit 2 and TFA saw 13-14% gains. From all the big movies I've seen, none have dropped close to 14% the day after christmas.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

That's pre-walk ups yah? I can't see TROS dropping 14.5% when both Hobbit 2 and TFA saw 13-14% gains. From all the big movies I've seen, none have dropped close to 14% the day after christmas.

It’s with walkups estimated of course. Could be better, could be worse.    
 

J2 -11%, Aquaman -23%

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

That's pre-walk ups yah? I can't see TROS dropping 14.5% when both Hobbit 2 and TFA saw 13-14% gains. From all the big movies I've seen, none have dropped close to 14% the day after christmas.

TFA with the 26th on a saturday is different from a normal work day. Hobbit did its thing, but is also not as comparable with the last few years as @Arendelle Legion showed with others that fell hard. 

Early morning guesses always include walk-ups as an estimate, presales are wayyyy down today which is why it starts so low. 

[heynow]

I am a bit new to BO forecasting.  This site is great and this particular board seems to most knowledgeable about forecasting.  Can anyone tell me what expectations are for Star Wars weekend 2.  it is hard to find information that is specific to weekend 2.  If I am on the wrong thread I apologize.  If you can recommend where is the best place to get this type of information it is appreciated.  Any information related to help me estimate star wars weekend 2 domestic is appreciated.

 

Thanks.

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, heynow said:

I am a bit new to BO forecasting.  This site is great and this particular board seems to most knowledgeable about forecasting.  Can anyone tell me what expectations are for Star Wars weekend 2.  it is hard to find information that is specific to weekend 2.  If I am on the wrong thread I apologize.  If you can recommend where is the best place to get this type of information it is appreciated.  Any information related to help me estimate star wars weekend 2 domestic is appreciated.

 

Thanks.

Last 2013, live-action movies in the Thursday top 8 had Thurs:wknd multiples of 2.67-2.94.  
American Hustle 2.94, Saving Mr. Banks 2.88, other 5 2.67-2.76x    
 

No discernible correlation to Thursday daily change. Using 28 for TROS and x2.75, I get about 77. That’s why people would probably like to see a much larger Thursday.     
 

Using Smaug’s ratio from Wed+Thurs would be more like 88M with a 28 Thurs. So gun to my head I’d probably go 84ish right now.

[RockyMountain]

32.02m Christmas Day. Total domestic cume so far is 258. Probably be a few days before we get an updated WW cume but it will likely be in the 750m range by Sunday.

 

 

Edited December 26, 2019 by RockyMountain

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

Nice

[RockyMountain]

3 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

Nice

Yeah those worried that it might not hit a billion don't really need to worry anymore. Looking more and more likely it will finish about 1.1. 

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, RockyMountain said:

Yeah those worried that it might not hit a billion don't really need to worry anymore. Looking more and more likely it will finish about 1.1. 

Prediction for final domestic Gross?

is 580 Possible?

Edited December 26, 2019 by Jabba'sMoofmilker

[Eric Atreides]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird that you have such a high prediction for this movie. I feel this is gonna bomb. BB3 will easily win that weekend.

Well it's important to recognize that we're still in the Christmas season, and most people aren't really jazzed to buy tickets for stuff in January just yet. I don't even think Dolittle's social medias have promoted tickets being on sale yet. And of course, this is a family movie that probably won't see a ton of presales until a week or so before release. Honestly, I'm not expecting any traction presales wise until the new year.

[lorddemaxus]

https://deadline.com/2019/12/bad-boys-for-life-dolittle-box-office-projection-will-smith-robert-downey-jr-1202817091/

 

‘Bad Boys For Life’ To Seize $40M+ Over MLK Holiday – Box Office Forecast

 

Universal also has the very expensive $175M reboot Dolittle starring Robert Downey Jr. as the doctor who can talk to animals over the holiday weekend. Tracking spots that pic’s opening at $25M-$30M over the 4-day stretch. Directed and written by Traffic Oscar winner Stephen Gaghan, Dolittle underwent 21 days of reshoots according to reports last spring with director Jonathan Liebesman and Lego Batman helmer Chris McKay overseeing fresh rewrites

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Eric Laurence said:

Well it's important to recognize that we're still in the Christmas season, and most people aren't really jazzed to buy tickets for stuff in January just yet. I don't even think Dolittle's social medias have promoted tickets being on sale yet. And of course, this is a family movie that probably won't see a ton of presales until a week or so before release. Honestly, I'm not expecting any traction presales wise until the new year.

Ok. That makes sense. I did a quick check at MTC1 while Dolittle has sold 290 tickets totally across the country while Bad Boys 3 has sold 133 tickets !!!!

 

I am traveling this weekend and wont be back until mid Jan and I am not sure I will able to do it remotely. January anyway is a dull month.

[keysersoze123]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ticket sales for Alamo Drafthouse are up 5.8% from last year, an especially impressive feat considering the exhibition industry as a whole is pacing over 5% behind 2018 <a href="https://t.co/a4xoKoWza2">https://t.co/a4xoKoWza2</a></p>&mdash; Variety (@Variety) <a href="https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1210183482187689984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 26, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[JB33]

9 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

Why is it not good? Concern trolling at best. 

No, it's not. 27.5 would NOT be good at all. Guessing this is when TROS shows its weakness and things go downhill fast at the box office.

 

EDIT: I read Day 7 and for whatever reason was thinking that was Friday @Jedi Jat was predicting. Still though, $27.5M wouldn't be a great number for Boxing Day by any stretch. It brings down the whole weekend by quite a bit unless we see a really healthy Friday bump.

Edited December 26, 2019 by JB33

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

[Inceptionzq]

7 minutes ago, JB33 said:

No, it's not. 27.5 would NOT be good at all. Guessing this is when TROS shows its weakness and things go downhill fast at the box office.

 

EDIT: I read Day 7 and for whatever reason was thinking that was Friday @Jedi Jat was predicting. Still though, $27.5M wouldn't be a great number for Boxing Day by any stretch. It brings down the whole weekend by quite a bit unless we see a really healthy Friday bump.

Jat gave an early estimate of 30M for today. Page 26 on weekdays

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jat gave an early estimate of 30M for today. Page 26 on weekdays

You'll have to forgive me. Have the flu and not thinking clearly (even fell asleep in the bath....). Totally didn't even notice I quoted a post from 9 hours ago LOL.

[narniadis]

10 minutes ago, JB33 said:

You'll have to forgive me. Have the flu and not thinking clearly (even fell asleep in the bath....). Totally didn't even notice I quoted a post from 9 hours ago LOL.

It happens hope you feel better! 

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, JB33 said:

You'll have to forgive me. Have the flu and not thinking clearly (even fell asleep in the bath....). Totally didn't even notice I quoted a post from 9 hours ago LOL.

Get better soon (and stay in bed, drink lots of fluids, and just stream buckets of movies!:)

 

[Inceptionzq]

32 minutes ago, JB33 said:

You'll have to forgive me. Have the flu and not thinking clearly (even fell asleep in the bath....). Totally didn't even notice I quoted a post from 9 hours ago LOL.

The flu sucks. Hope you recover quick!