The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Krissykins]

14 hours ago, dudalb said:

About the same for Hansel and Gretal.

Granted, those are both low budget  movie anyway, even if they bomb no great loss. The hollywooq equivalent for blowing five bucks on a slot machine..

I think The Turning budget is $17m. But doesn’t seem as if they’ve spent much in way of marketing. 

14 hours ago, Nova said:

Personally I thought The Gentlemen having good reviews, an all star cast and Guy Ritchie directing would lead it to a decent OW. 

I would expect it to perform much better, considering the Australian and UK openings would translate to about $20m in the US. Looks like it’ll be a flop in comparison. 

[Boxofficerules]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think The Turning budget is $17m. But doesn’t seem as if they’ve spent much in way of marketing. 

 

But, @The Horror of Lucas Films has said that it’s impossible for PG13 horror to do poorly in January, shouldn’t both these movies be doing about $20 million opening weekend?

[Nova]

7 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

But, @The Horror of Lucas Films has said that it’s impossible for PG13 horror to do poorly in January, shouldn’t both these movies be doing about $20 million opening weekend?

If only it were rated R, right? 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

6 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

But, @The Horror of Lucas Films has said that it’s impossible for PG13 horror to do poorly in January, shouldn’t both these movies be doing about $20 million opening weekend?

If this movie were Rated R, it would've opened so huge as the Rated R smash Friend Request.

[Boxofficerules]

Just now, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

If this movie were Rated R, it would've opened so huge as the Rated R smash Friend Request.

 

2 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

If this movie were Rated R, it would've opened so huge as the Rated R smash Friend Request.

I’ve never stated that R rated horror films won’t fail. You have stated as fact that PG13 horror doesn’t fail at the box office. You stated, as fact, that teens will go see anything and they’ll always be successful and will never bomb. Yet Underwater has bombed big time, Black Christmas did poorly, The Turning And Gretal and Hansel aren’t looking so hot (but nothing is written in stone yet).

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

 

I’ve never stated that R rated horror films won’t fail. You have stated as fact that PG13 horror doesn’t fail at the box office. You stated, as fact, that teens will go see anything and they’ll always be successful and will never bomb. Yet Underwater has bombed big time, Black Christmas did poorly, The Turning And Gretal and Hansel aren’t looking so hot (but nothing is written in stone yet).

Never said that PG13 Horror movies doesn't fail, I've said that bad PG13 Horror movies has a bigger chance at success than bad Rated R because teens doesn't care about critics.

 

Plus, even PG13 bombage still better than most of Rated R bombage, at least these movies crossed $10m at total, there's several Rated R Horror movies that couldn't even do that. 

[Krissykins]

51 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

But, @The Horror of Lucas Films has said that it’s impossible for PG13 horror to do poorly in January, shouldn’t both these movies be doing about $20 million opening weekend?

I think the overall January trend for horrors was in the teens. 
 

R rated wise: My Bloody Valentine, Hostel, Texas Chainsaw 3D, The Devil Inside, three Underworld sequels all did $20m+ in January. 
 

PG:13 wise you have Cloverfield, Mama, White Noise, Hide & Seek, The Unborn,  Split and Glass. It’s a bit of a reach to consider Glass a horror film.
 

Lots of others open in the 10-teen range. 

[EconomySize]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I think the overall January trend for horrors was in the teens. 
 

R rated wise: My Bloody Valentine, Hostel, Texas Chainsaw 3D, The Devil Inside, three Underworld sequels all did $20m+ in January. 
 

PG:13 wise you have Cloverfield, Mama, White Noise, Hide & Seek, The Unborn,  Split and Glass. It’s a bit of a reach to consider Glass a horror film.
 

Lots of others open in the 10-teen range. 

I think you are forgetting the classic January R Rated horror films like Devil's Due,  The Loft,  and The Boy Next Door.  Only the power of J-Lo got the boy next door to $14m, the others were below 10m.

[filmlover]

19 hours ago, Nova said:

Personally I thought The Gentlemen having good reviews, an all star cast and Guy Ritchie directing would lead it to a decent OW. 

It just seems limited in appeal tbh. Movies like this have usually had a hard time breaking out in the U.S.

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, EconomySize said:

I think you are forgetting the classic January R Rated horror films like Devil's Due,  The Loft,  and The Boy Next Door.  Only the power of J-Lo got the boy next door to $14m, the others were below 10m.

Sorry, I was only listing $20m+ releases 

[dudalb]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

It just seems limited in appeal tbh. Movies like this have usually had a hard time breaking out in the U.S.

I suspect in the US this will pretty much go the "Art House" route.

[Nova]

The Gentlemen is opening in roughly 2,000 theaters according to BOP so even though it’s wide it’s still a smallish release because I guess as @filmlover said the movie has limited appeal in the states. Still was hoping for a breakout but oh well. I hope I enjoy the movie because in the end that’s all that matters. 

[keysersoze123]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Update (T-2)

 

Gentleman

MTC1 - overall 421 shows 4255/57093 56923.20 
MTC2 - overall 570 shows 1245/74286 14128.00 

 

Turning
MTC1 - overall 416 shows 1759/54031 23591.81 
MTC2 - overall 585 shows 736/75614 8035.00 

 

Dismal PS overall. Gentleman should win this one though neither one would even hit 1m prev or double digits. 

Update(T-1)

 

Gentlemen

MTC1 - overall 545 shows 6016/72000 80926.50 +1761
MTC2 - overall 571 shows 1679/73944 19183.00 +434

 

Turning
MTC1 - overall 545 shows 2602/66245 34554.95 +843
MTC2 - overall 595 shows 988/76375 10746.00 +252

 

Ridiculously low sales 1 day before release. Just to refresh the final numbers for dolittle last week( 0.9m previews)

 

MTC1 - overall 1039 shows 17388/164934 240608.47
MTC2  - overall 1147 shows 16011/149357 175777.00

 

I dont think combines sales either one will hit even half the dolittle number ( ~16.7k tickets between 2 MTC). Gentlemen could have a good spurt on the final day and hit 0.5-0.6m previews but Turning number will be so ridiculous that it may not even be reported !!!!

[Nova]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Update(T-1)

 

Gentlemen

MTC1 - overall 545 shows 6016/72000 80926.50 +1761
MTC2 - overall 571 shows 1679/73944 19183.00 +434

 

Turning
MTC1 - overall 545 shows 2602/66245 34554.95 +843
MTC2 - overall 595 shows 988/76375 10746.00 +252

 

Ridiculously low sales 1 day before release. Just to refresh the final numbers for dolittle last week( 0.9m previews)

 

MTC1 - overall 1039 shows 17388/164934 240608.47
MTC2  - overall 1147 shows 16011/149357 175777.00

 

I dont think combines sales either one will hit even half the dolittle number ( ~16.7k tickets between 2 MTC). Gentlemen could have a good spurt on the final day and hit 0.5-0.6m previews but Turning number will be so ridiculous that it may not even be reported !!!!

Wait so The Gentlemen is looking at like $500K *if* there is an up tick in sales. But if it doesn’t it could go sub $500k? 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

Wait so The Gentlemen is looking at like $500K *if* there is an up tick in sales. But if it doesn’t it could go sub $500k? 

I think so. But uptick has to happen. reviews are not bad either. Turning on the other hand is at ridiculous state. This must be the movie with lowest PS that I have tracked so close to release. 🙂

[ZackM]

We might have an issue with tracking MTC3 as it doesn't seem as though many of their theaters have reserved seats.  I'm doing some testing right now and started by just cycling though the theaters and printing how many shows with reserved seats there are for each theater tomorrow.  When the first ~30 theaters gave me 0s I thought there was an issue with my program's ability to locate the seat-map elements, but when I looked into it, those theaters simply didn't have seat maps because they don't have reserved seats.  I'll keep digging and see if it might be regional or something.

[JB33]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think so. But uptick has to happen. reviews are not bad either. Turning on the other hand is at ridiculous state. This must be the movie with lowest PS that I have tracked so close to release. 🙂

Did you track the Playmobil movie? Trying to guess which movie previously had the least presales that you tracked...

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, ZackM said:

We might have an issue with tracking MTC3 as it doesn't seem as though many of their theaters have reserved seats.  I'm doing some testing right now and started by just cycling though the theaters and printing how many shows with reserved seats there are for each theater tomorrow.  When the first ~30 theaters gave me 0s I thought there was an issue with my program's ability to locate the seat-map elements, but when I looked into it, those theaters simply didn't have seat maps because they don't have reserved seats.  I'll keep digging and see if it might be regional or something.

Smaller cities may not have reserved seating. Can you look at some of the biggest plexes in big cities for a start. 

Few I can think off are
Regal Union Square/Regal E-Walk (NYC)

Regal Hacienda 21(Dublin near SF)

Regal LA/Edwards (LA)

 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Did you track the Playmobil movie? Trying to guess which movie previously had the least presales that you tracked...

I dont remember tracking it. But I tracked cats and even that sold 12K tickets for previews. Turning looks like closing below that. 

[ZackM]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Smaller cities may not have reserved seating. Can you look at some of the biggest plexes in big cities for a start. 

Few I can think off are
Regal Union Square/Regal E-Walk (NYC)

Regal Hacienda 21(Dublin near SF)

Regal LA/Edwards (LA)

 

I'm only working on the Cineplex half of the equation right now.  But either way, I've already figured out that my issues were a little bit of column A and B.  A good portion of them don't have reserved seats, but my script was also missing elements.

Edited January 23, 2020 by ZackM