The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MrPink]

11 hours ago, Eric #RIPKobe said:

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-111 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	177	11,009	1.61%

 

It's gonna be hard to really know how well it'll be doing, since it's so far away. The farthest away for any movie I've tracked. The closes movie is Star Wars, and that isn't until a couple months from now and isn't even that perfect of a comp. But I think it's a good start. I thought it would reach 100 tickets, but getting close to 200 seems pretty solid. Interested to see what the next couple months are like.

 

Han effect in full force

[Madhuvan]

BOP opening weekend reaction chart:

 

Over 70m  Excellent 

60-70m      Very Good

50-60m      Good

45-50m       OK

40-45m       Sequel will overperform

35-40m      Bad

30-35m       Very Bad

Under 30m  Something is very wrong/Disaster 

[DlAMONDZ]

That Mulan projection tho. I was thinking more in line with Aladdin

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Birds of Prey Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

89

1790

4.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

46

1506

3.05%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
297	64	9724	3.05%	9	46

 

Terminator comp: 5.50M

Joker comp: 5.24M

Adjusted Joker comp: 4.94M

Hobbs comp: 4.99M

Birds of Prey Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

105

1790

5.87%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

68

1506

4.52%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
368	71	9724	3.78%	9	46

 

Terminator comp: 5.80M

Joker comp: 5.76M

Adjusted Joker comp: 5.34M

Hobbs comp: 5.40M

[Inceptionzq]

Fast and Furious 9 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

41

1696

2.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

55

1506

3.65%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
177	N/A	10258	1.73%	9	47

[Porthos]

Fast & Furious 9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-111 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	14961	15086	125	0.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

125

 

Day One Adjusted Comp #1 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
H&S	227.27		55	55		0/52	6101/6156	0.89%		13.18m
FF9 (adj)	n/a		125	125		0/96	12665/12790	0.98%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: FF9 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Hobbs & Shaw. 

PRE-SALES NOTE:  FF9 had 112 days of pre-sales while Hobbs and Shaw had 35.

 

===

 

I got the seat counts super late last night, but I didn't make the actual seat charts until earlier today.  So all of this data is from the first day of sales.

 

All in all, not too bad for a film more than three and a half months away from debuting.

 

(side note... Really???)

 

I haven't checked but I figure that there's gonna be a Super Bowl commercial tomorrow so I plan on making an update tonight, tomorrow, and Monday.  After that we'll see how it goes but I think I'll make an update in this thread either once a week or once every two weeks.

 

I do have some other comps, but IMO the only one I have that's worth a damn at this point is Hobbs & Shaw, and even that isn't that useful due to the immense difference in sales window (again, side note - REALLY?!?)  I almost threw in a King of the Monsters comp, but that had a couple of days of unofficial sales, which messed with the comp too much.  For folks that care though, KotM outsold FF9 by 229% by it's "first" official day, giving a comp of 2.74m).

 

I also do have a Fallen Kingdom comp, but I'm holding back for now for a couple of reasons (for those who care, JW:FK outsold FF9 by over 500% on adjusted basis on its first day of sales for a comp of 2.88m).  The main reason is that another major new theater is opening up in the region locally very soon and so I am giving serious consideration to dropping all of my 2018 comps.  Once it opens I'll keep an eye on the comps and see just how badly it messes with them, if it does.

 

So, once again, no great comps.  But all in all I think it did relatively well.  Mostly because I can compare it to H&S.  Compared to anything else, not so much.  But I can't really compare it to anything thanks the the difference in sales window (side note - well, you know).  So, see how it goes, as always.

[Legion Again]

The idea that F9 will have some days where ticket have been up for more than 50 days and the movie still doesn’t come out for more than 50 days is just so comically delightful. From an extrapolation standpoint though, pure bollocks.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

The idea that F9 will have some days where ticket have been up for more than 50 days and the movie still doesn’t come out for more than 50 days is just so comically delightful. From an extrapolation standpoint though, pure bollocks.

I haven't checked, but it has to be because of the Super Bowl, right?  I mean, I can literally think of no other reason for this to be treated like a special event/road show movie otherwise (which are the only other ones that literally go this far in advance).

[xiazhi]

14 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

California annual report and there up to date list:

http://film.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2.0-CFC-Approved-Projects-List-12.16.19.pdf

2018-2019 Birds of Prey WB Studio Enterprises Inc. Feature Film Non-Indie 63 4550 150 93 $ 62,998,000 $ 12,615,000

 

Almost all movies get some incentive, this one in particular is for the spending in California.

So when we talk about prod budget, do we take account of this incentive? I know we used to directly quote reports from deadline, variety, forbes, etc

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

BOP opening weekend reaction chart:

 

Over 70m  Excellent 

60-70m      Very Good

50-60m      Good

45-50m       OK

40-45m       Sequel will overperform

35-40m      Bad

30-35m       Very Bad

Under 30m  Something is very wrong/Disaster 

Yeah, I like this chart - around Shazam is good:)...

 

I'm still thinking it exceeds Shazam, but yes, I know the current presales:)...of course, some movies do outperform the presales even in their genre (see Dolittle, which overperformed the presales even as it underperformed the budget:)...

[ZackM]

Birds of Prey - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: T-5 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	0	25	-	-	-
Seats Added	2,313	4,425	-	-	-
Seats Sold	616	688	-	-	-
	Shows	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0	451	103,270	104,899	-	1,629	1,629	1.55%
D-1	646	157,568	158,916	220	1,348	1,568	0.99%
D-2	789	190,290	191,155	343	865	1,208	0.63%
D-3	763	184,543	185,013	235	470	705	0.38%

Edited February 2, 2020 by ZackM

[Litio]

Until the Tuesday before the release, there were still reports showing an opening below $ 40m to Shazam, even below $ 30m.

Based on current reports, Birds of Prey is having a better hold on daily sales than their comparisons. If it keeps up the pace, I can see it doing $60m+ OW.  But we will have a better look on Wednesday. If reviews are not as good as reactions were, walkups will be affected.

 

That said, a box office below Shazam will be embarrassing.

[aall]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

Birds of Prey - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: T-6 days and counting
									Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	0	25	-	-	-
Seats Added	2,313	4,425	-	-	-
Seats Sold	616	688	-	-	-
	Shows	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0	451	103,270	104,899	-	1,629	1,629	1.55%
D-1	646	157,568	158,916	220	1,348	1,568	0.99%
D-2	789	190,290	191,155	343	865	1,208	0.63%
D-3	763	184,543	185,013	235	470	705	0.38%

does MTC = major theatre chain?

[ZackM]

58 minutes ago, aall said:

does MTC = major theatre chain?

Yep

[charlie Jatinder]

Since we have Keyser going for $5.5mn and couple of comps in same region, I will go with that. From there a Friday of $12mn for $17.5mn opening day.  Followed by $15.5mn Saturday & $10.5mn Sunday for $43.5mn weekend.

[Eric Duncan]

Birds of Prey Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	344	14,068	2.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 52

 

Comp

0.285x of It: Chapter Two 5 days before release (2.99M)

0.249x of Joker (3.31M)

1.729x of Terminator (4.06M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.774x of Hobbs & Shaw (4.49M)

[Eric Duncan]

Sonic the Hedgehog Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	98	6,898	1.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.778x of Maleficent 12 days before release (1.79M)

0.118x of Frozen II (1.01M)

2.390x of Dolittle (2.21M)

 

Will be interesting to see how tomorrow pans out what with the pre-game spot

[Porthos]

Fast & Furious 9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-110 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	14914	15086	172	1.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

47

 

Day Two Adjusted Comp (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
H&S	256.72		12	67		0/52	607/6154	1.09%		14.89m
FF9 (adj)	n/a		47	172		0/96	12618/12790	1.34%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: FF9 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Hobbs & Shaw. 

PRE-SALES NOTE:  FF9 had 112 days of pre-sales while Hobbs and Shaw had 35.

[Eric Duncan]

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-110 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	232	11,893	1.95%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 884

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Again, excited to see how the Super Bowl spot affects ticket sales tomorrow, even if I have nothing to compare this to yet

[YM!]

Birds of Prey 

North Shore Cinema 

2/6/19 (4 days before previews, 5 before release)

Mequon, WI

 

6:00 - 28/301 - Ultrascreen 

9:30 - 5/301 - UltraScreen 

11:30 - 2/147

Comparisons:

29% ahead of Dark Phoenix ($42.5M OW)

60% of Godzilla: King of The Monsters ($28.2M OW)

61% of Venom ($49.27M OW)

Decent jump throughout the week but still rather pitiful for a CBM. I’m guessing $40M-$45M OW.