The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cdsacken]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Birds of Prey OD

MTC1 - overall 2926 shows 17820/647118 307468.40

MTC2 - overall 2904 shows 9825/507473 118700.00

 

This is as of late night yesterday. So MTC1 about 60% of previews(and going up as well) while MTC2 OD is on par with preview sales. So its definitely not frontloaded. I expect previews to OW multi better than Joker. 

I'd hope so. It was 7.2x previews to OW. That would equate to 50m with a preview of 7.

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/3/2020 at 1:44 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Birds of Prey Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

147

1790

8.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

82

1506

5.44%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
465	57	9724	4.78%	9	46

 

Terminator comp: 4.89M

Joker comp: 5.61M

Adjusted Joker comp: 5.33M

Hobbs comp: 4.96M

Birds of Prey Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

187

1884

9.93%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

91

1506

6.04%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
556	91	10134	5.49%	9	51

 

Showings added: 5

Seats added: 410

 

Joker comp: 5.21M

Adjusted Joker comp: 4.91M

Hobbs comp: 5.13M

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Deadline projects 50-55m and mentions the advanced sales are ok but not stupendous 

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/3/2020 at 2:21 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

40

282

14.18%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

18

318

5.66%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
117	N/A	3662	3.19%	9	25

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.68M

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

48

282

17.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

20

318

6.29%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
136	19	3662	3.71%	9	25

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.10M

[YM!]

Birds of Prey 

North Shore Cinema (2 days before previews, 3 before release)

2/6/20

Mequon, WI

 

6:00 - 35/301 - UltraScreen 

7:00 - 2/147

8:00 - 0/118

9:00 - 6/301 - UltraScreen 

10:00 - 0/147

11:00 - 2/118

 

33% of Venom ($26.53M OW)

61% of Mission Impossible: Fallout ($37.75M OW)

88% of Dark Phoenix ($28.96M OW)

 

Not going to lie, I think it’s very likely Birds of Prey goes sub $40M OW, or at least a poor performance in the Midwest. Thinking $35M-$45M OW.

[a2k]

If ow is 45 then 2.8x gives 126 dom. Fine compared to the prod budget but should match Shazam's dom at least considering release date and competition is favorable in comparison.

[Krissykins]

9 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Birds of Prey 

North Shore Cinema (2 days before previews, 3 before release)

2/6/20

Mequon, WI

 

6:00 - 35/301 - UltraScreen 

7:00 - 2/147

8:00 - 0/118

9:00 - 6/301 - UltraScreen 

10:00 - 0/147

11:00 - 2/118

 

33% of Venom ($26.53M OW)

61% of Mission Impossible: Fallout ($37.75M OW)

88% of Dark Phoenix ($28.96M OW)

 

Not going to lie, I think it’s very likely Birds of Prey goes sub $40M OW, or at least a poor performance in the Midwest. Thinking $35M-$45M OW.

Why the comps for summer and October releases? 

[YM!]

Sonic The Hedgehog

North Shore Cinema (9 days before previews, 10 before release)

Mequon, WI

2/13/19

 

5:00 - 2/301

7:30 - 5/301

 

29% of Aladdin ($26.69M OW/$34.06M 4 Day)

133% ahead of Pets 2 ($111.01M OW)

27% of Pikachu ($14.67M OW)
 

It’s okay. Looking more at $30M three day but I don’t like that Pikachu comparison.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Why the comps for summer and October releases? 

It’s all I got unfortunately.

[Boxofficerules]

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

It’s all I got unfortunately.

My mother is not an edge lord 😡

[cdsacken]

45 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Birds of Prey 

North Shore Cinema (2 days before previews, 3 before release)

2/6/20

Mequon, WI

 

6:00 - 35/301 - UltraScreen 

7:00 - 2/147

8:00 - 0/118

9:00 - 6/301 - UltraScreen 

10:00 - 0/147

11:00 - 2/118

 

33% of Venom ($26.53M OW)

61% of Mission Impossible: Fallout ($37.75M OW)

88% of Dark Phoenix ($28.96M OW)

 

Not going to lie, I think it’s very likely Birds of Prey goes sub $40M OW, or at least a poor performance in the Midwest. Thinking $35M-$45M OW.

I think 45-55.

 

5.5 previews, 48-52 OW 

Edited February 4, 2020 by cdsacken

[XXR vs XXR]

Greetings Trackers. How I’ve missed you. 

I’ll do full numbers on Thursday but as of right now, BOP is sitting at 128 tickets sold at my theater for previews. As a comp, Joker was at 659 @ 3pm on Thursday. I think BOP can get to at least 220 sold by then. 

[kitik]

3 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

or at least a poor performance in the Midwest.

 

 

What if Iowa doesn't report any numbers?!?!?!? Could lead to a terrible OW.

[Eric Duncan]

Birds of Prey Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	82	569	16,902	3.37%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 21

Total Seats Added Today: 2,608

Total Seats Sold Today: 101

 

Comp

0.298x of It: Chapter Two 2 days before release (3.13M)

0.222x of Joker (2.96M)

1.835x of Terminator (4.31M)

4.781x of Charlie’s Angels (4.33M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.605x of Hobbs & Shaw (3.51M)

 

I'm sure Philly is underperforming, so I'm not expecting numbers these low. But numbers from other trackers here aren't boosting my confidence in this. Ah well. Thankfully June will be better for DC. Yes, you can quote this if WW84 doesn't pan out well.

[Eric Duncan]

Sonic the Hedgehog Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	158	6,898	2.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

 

Comp

1.097x of Maleficent 9 days before release (2.52M)

0.162x of Frozen II (1.38M)

3.362x of Dolittle (3.11M)

 

Like I said yesterday, went past Maleficent. Should be fun to watch how the next two weeks go.

[Eric Duncan]

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-107 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	287	12,334	2.33%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 441

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Alright, now we're in the drecks. Get used to these low numbers for a while.

[ThomasNicole]

Honestly i'm fine with $ 5-6M previews and $ 47-52M OW, which kinda seems like the realistic prediction right now based on the data our trackers is posting here. 

 

It's sad to think it could be bigger though, the marketing for this one is being really problematic since the beginning, from the boring teasers too many time ago, the trailer which didn't really know how to sell the movie, the almost 3 months without barely anything after that, the second trailer coming too late and without the presales, WB skipping the SB which aired 5 days before the release and definitely will give it more exposure, the reviews coming too late even after great reactions etc.

 

I'm sure with a $ 85-90M budget this will be a hit with anything over $ 300M WW [which seems like a good bet], so it's fine, it's just annoying to think it could be better with a proper marketing campaign. 

[ZackM]

Birds of Prey - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: T-2 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	890	7	7	0	25
Seats Added	187,024	694	-311	2,313	4,425
Seats Sold	1,989	1,171	1,017	616	688
	Shows	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0	452	100,470	103,354	-	2,884	2,884	2.79%
D-1	924	214,781	217,929	229	2,919	3,148	1.44%
D-2	1,119	256,187	258,430	549	1,694	2,243	0.87%
D-3	1,058	246,665	247,677	379	633	1,012	0.41%

Edited February 5, 2020 by ZackM

[Eric Duncan]

Like I'm sure it'll still be successful and profitable and stuff, but for a movie that features Harley Quinn, who became a huge household name after Suicide Squad, and is considered one of the standouts in the recent DC movies, and is paired up with a team of superheroines, I thought it would have been a bigger deal. Maybe not 100M, but 65M at the very least. So the potential for it to open lower than Shazam is kind of bewildering to me. And it's not like WB didn't bother advertising it or did a bad job, because I thought the ads were personally effective enough in selling it to its audience.

 

Maybe it looked too much like Suicide Squad which turned people off.

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, Eric Sionis said:

Like I'm sure it'll still be successful and profitable and stuff, but for a movie that features Harley Quinn, who became a huge household name after Suicide Squad, and is considered one of the standouts in the recent DC movies, and is paired up with a team of superheroines, I thought it would have been a bigger deal. Maybe not 100M, but 65M at the very least. So the potential for it to open lower than Shazam is kind of bewildering to me. And it's not like WB didn't bother advertising it or did a bad job, because I thought the ads were personally effective enough in selling it to its audience.

 

Maybe it looked too much like Suicide Squad which turned people off.

Suicide Squad was awful in quality...and we're always saying the sequel suffers for the sins of the 1st movie...

 

I know the Atom deal is tomorrow (and I think the last second change to 5 for $35 vs the original hidden posted 5 for $25 was a poor one, since they need to get hype rolling this weekend) and that will help, but those Philly numbers are hella concerning...

 

I mean, all the movie subscribers will come out by the end of this movie's run, and many this weekend, so it's got a floor as the only movie opening and as a big DC release...but dang, I did not think presales would be this bad at this point (yes, yes, I know - late presale start...but they still haven't really started if you look at the numbers)...and as a DC movie lover and follower, there's no other way to spin the 48 hours out presales as anything but bad for this type of movie...

Edited February 5, 2020 by TwoMisfits