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grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

But just to be conservative I could see just a 20% increase to 10.8m D2.

Damn that will be terrible. 23.8mn 2 days. Sunday if dropped 42% it may miss 30mn but that will be slightly pessimistic. Gosh hope Disney start Widow PS 2 months early like CM. It's so boring now.

 

Edit: Got back my access. It's +33%.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Damn that will be terrible. 23.8mn 2 days. Sunday if dropped 42% it may miss 30mn but that will be slightly pessimistic. Gosh hope Disney start Widow PS 2 months early like CM. It's so boring now.

If only they followed the visionary tactics of Universal, tickets would have been on sale for a month already 😛 

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ZackM said:

Birds of Prey - MTC4
Opening Weekend Seat Report: D-2
               
  Last
Day 		2 Days
Ago 		3 Days
Ago 		4 Days
Ago 		5 Days
Ago 		   
Shows Added 0 12 21 54 890    
Seats Added 0 8,478 8,835 10,198 187,024    
Seats Sold 21,133 26,075 12,201 2,722 1,989    
               
  Shows Seats
Left 		Total
Seats 		Matinee Evening Total
Sold 		Pct.
Sold
D-0 (Final) 452 94,303 106,242 - 11,939 11,939 11.24%
D-1 (Final) 939 196,805 226,817 3399 26,613 30,012 13.23%
D-2 (5:30PM EST) 1,151 239,282 265,283 9,672 16,329 26,001 9.80%
D-3 1,098 253,093 256,559 1,636 1,830 3,466 1.35%

 

D-2 is up to 41,338 tickets sold as of 11PM EST.

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted

Sonic the Hedgehog Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 37 275 6,898 3.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

1.554x of Maleficent 5 days before release (3.57M)

0.212x of Frozen II (1.8M)

4.825x of Dolittle (4.46M)

 

Not impressed with today's sales. After yesterday saw such a huge jump, reverting back to a couple days ago is a little peculiar. We'll see if this is just a fluke.

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-103 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 50 342 12,466 2.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Damn that will be terrible. 23.8mn 2 days. Sunday if dropped 42% it may miss 30mn but that will be slightly pessimistic. Gosh hope Disney start Widow PS 2 months early like CM. It's so boring now.

 

Edit: Got back my access. It's +33%.

Just a conservative guess at that time. At this point MTC1 up 23% and MTC2 up 32% but MTC1 tend to under index on saturday. That is a big factor. i would say 11.5-12m saturday. 

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Just a conservative guess at that time. At this point MTC1 up 23% and MTC2 up 32% but MTC1 tend to under index on saturday. That is a big factor. i would say 11.5-12m saturday. 

Yeah that would be the range. More on upper side. Currently East cost numbers suggest a higher number altogether, but considering the hourly numbers, West cost has lower growth.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I keep seeing chatter around Fantasy island breaking out and checked how ticket sales are doing. It has almost no preview shows except 4 at MTC1 where it has sold 30 tickets !!

 

Fantasy Island OD (T-6)

MTC1 - overall 671 shows 3629/103191 57394.50 post 6PM 470 shows 3334/74098 53597.56
MTC2 - overall 1168 shows 2872/152683 30431.79 post 6PM 493 shows 2039/65186 23424.27 

 

The PS does not show any signs of breakout. Its almost order of magnitude below sonic which is not exactly a pre-sales monster. IMO it would be lucky to hit mid teens tracking.
 

Someone over at KJ mentioned Photograph would do well on 14th as its only romantic movie releasing. 

 

The Photograph OD

MTC1 OD - overall 760 shows 6531/120463 91437.83 

 

Nothing sensational but at least its doing better than Fantasy Island 

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

14th as its only romantic movie releasing.

Valentines films have huge walkins.

 

Also it's not only romantic film on that day

tenor.gif?itemid=16181380

 

Now that I am seeing it. Man this was beautiful. While watching film, this came after a disappointing final fight.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted

Birds of Prey - MTC4
Opening Weekend Seat Report: D-2
               
  Last
Day 		2 Days
Ago 		3 Days
Ago 		4 Days
Ago 		5 Days
Ago 		   
Shows Added 0 0 12 21 54    
Seats Added 0 0 8,478 8,835 10,198    
Seats Sold 2,443 36,470 26,075 12,201 2,722    
               
  Shows Seats
Left 		Total
Seats 		Matinee Evening Total
Sold 		Pct.
Sold
D-0 (Final) 452 94,303 106,242 - 11,939 11,939 11.24%
D-1 (Final) 939 196,805 226,817 3,399 26,613 30,012 13.23%
D-2 (Final) 1,151 223,026 265,283 9,847 32,410 42,257 15.93%
D-3 (10:30AM EST) 1,098 251,569 256,559 2,627 2,363 4,990 1.94%

 

Sunday presales are really weak.  I'll update every few hours throughout the day to see how walkups are trending.

 

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VanillaSkies Box Office Gold

VanillaSkies

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Eric Sionis said:

Sonic the Hedgehog Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 37 275 6,898 3.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

1.554x of Maleficent 5 days before release (3.57M)

0.212x of Frozen II (1.8M)

4.825x of Dolittle (4.46M)

 

Not impressed with today's sales. After yesterday saw such a huge jump, reverting back to a couple days ago is a little peculiar. We'll see if this is just a fluke.

Just throwing it out there, but with Atom/T-Mobile's $4 ticket deal going live Tuesday, perhaps people are now waiting until then to make their purchases? I could see people still continuing to purchase Dolby, etc to ensure they get seats, but the average moviegoer might be waiting at this point, especially since the deal has been covered pretty extensively on most "deal" sites.

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, ZackM said:

Birds of Prey - MTC4
Opening Weekend Seat Report: D-2
               
  Last
Day 		2 Days
Ago 		3 Days
Ago 		4 Days
Ago 		5 Days
Ago 		   
Shows Added 0 0 12 21 54    
Seats Added 0 0 8,478 8,835 10,198    
Seats Sold 2,443 36,470 26,075 12,201 2,722    
               
  Shows Seats
Left 		Total
Seats 		Matinee Evening Total
Sold 		Pct.
Sold
D-0 (Final) 452 94,303 106,242 - 11,939 11,939 11.24%
D-1 (Final) 939 196,805 226,817 3,399 26,613 30,012 13.23%
D-2 (Final) 1,151 223,026 265,283 9,847 32,410 42,257 15.93%
D-3 (10:30AM EST) 1,098 251,569 256,559 2,627 2,363 4,990 1.94%

 

Sunday presales are really weak.  I'll update every few hours throughout the day to see how walkups are trending.

 

D-3 only at 13,574 tickets sold as of 4PM EST.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 2/8/2020 at 2:06 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 65 282 23.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 44 318 13.84%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
229 22 3864 5.93% 9 26

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 202

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.78M

Jumanji comp: 3.94M

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 67 282 23.76%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 48 318 15.09%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
257 28 3864 6.65% 9 26

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.71M

Jumanji comp: 3.86M

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

I could see Sonic having a Friday # that skews heavily to Thursday previews for a kids film (say, 3.5M Thursday, 13M Friday total) but then having a great Saturday bump like 18.5M, and a Sunday around 13M and Monday around 8M. 

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ZackM said:

D-3 only at 13,574 tickets sold as of 4PM EST.

7PM update:

 

Birds of Prey - MTC4
Opening Weekend Seat Report: D-2
               
  Last
Day 		2 Days
Ago 		3 Days
Ago 		4 Days
Ago 		5 Days
Ago 		   
Shows Added 0 0 12 21 54    
Seats Added 0 0 8,478 8,835 10,198    
Seats Sold 17,000 36,470 26,075 12,201 2,722    
               
  Shows Seats
Left 		Total
Seats 		Matinee Evening Total
Sold 		Pct.
Sold
D-0 (Final) 452 94,303 106,242 - 11,939 11,939 11.24%
D-1 (Final) 939 196,805 226,817 3,399 26,613 30,012 13.23%
D-2 (Final) 1,151 223,026 265,283 9,847 32,410 42,257 15.93%
D-3 (7PM EST) 1,098 237,012 256,559 8,929 10,618 19,547 7.62%

 

 

So far the estimates have tracked really nicely with my totals from each day.  Given that, today would be at 5M and counting as of 7PM.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I could see Sonic having a Friday # that skews heavily to Thursday previews for a kids film (say, 3.5M Thursday, 13M Friday total) but then having a great Saturday bump like 18.5M, and a Sunday around 13M and Monday around 8M. 

That would be a great opening (44.5/52.5) and put it on path to challenge Pikachu with 3.25x multi. Any idea what the prod budget is after design change?

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I could see Sonic having a Friday # that skews heavily to Thursday previews for a kids film (say, 3.5M Thursday, 13M Friday total) but then having a great Saturday bump like 18.5M, and a Sunday around 13M and Monday around 8M. 

How much do you think reviews will affect the movie?

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