The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[aall]

My 10 year old daughter shared an instagram post with me this morning of Chris Pratt and Tom Holland performing their lines together and it was super cute. She can be a tough critic (absolutely refused to see Aladdin with me even when I promised all the candy in the theatre and all she really cares about is basketball.) They are both popular and charming, if they push the advertising on their sm (Especially together) I think the buzz will pick up significantly 

[DAJK]

51 minutes ago, Menor said:

Based on this, final Friday ps should be more like 204k at the 2 MTC which I guess would be 6-6.5 million national ps, which using Charlie's projected multi would be 18-20 million OD. I think it may be a little lower at something like 16 million, which would still be pretty good.

is this true Friday or including previews?

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

is this true Friday or including previews?

True Friday. Previews are an entirely separate thing to predict.

Edited February 13, 2020 by Menor

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Start
Sonic			56/771	(5pm)	93/1499	(5pm)	118/1499	(4pm)		5:00 PM
Downhill			15/410	(5pm)	15/410	(5pm)	17/410	(4pm)		6:00 PM
Photograph			28/760	(5pm)	29/760	(5pm)	39/760	(4pm)		5:00 PM

 

SONIC
Shazam: $3.723m
Godz2: $3.644m
TLK: $4.87m
Abominable: $1.05m
Mal 2: $2.827m
Frozen 2: $3.299m
Jumaji TNL: $3.115m
Doolittle: $1.585m

 

Abominable & Doolittle skewing younger/family so fewer late night walk ups
TLK in the heart of summer with higher late night walkups

Take those out and avg is $3.33m

 

PHOTOGRAPH
Black & Blue: $1.326m
Harriet: $.8m
Last Christmas: $1.4m
Just Mercy: $1.56m

Harriet looks like an outlier so around $1.4m

 

DOWNHILL 
A Beautiful Day: $.29m
Ford v Ferrari:  $.54m
Knives Out: $.348m 

 

 .29 to .54 is a huge diff with avg of $.39m

 DH is in just 1500 theaters so the comps should be even lower. I don't know - just guessing  $200k - 250k

 

[VanillaSkies]

59 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

DOWNHILL 
A Beautiful Day: $.29m
Ford v Ferrari:  $.54m
Knives Out: $.348m 

 

 .29 to .54 is a huge diff with avg of $.39m

 DH is in just 1500 theaters so the comps should be even lower. I don't know - just guessing  $200k - 250k

 

Official estimate is 2301 theatres for it, much higher. 

Maybe they realized they could get enough valentine's cash tomorrow that it would make it worthwhile to go that wide for the weekend? 

[Eric Duncan]

Sonic the Hedgehog Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	63	1,314	10,284	12.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 621

 

Comp

6.473x of Dora (8.09M)

5.840x of Abominable (3.8M)

3.982x of Addams Family (4.98M)

1.885x of Maleficent (4.34M)

0.391x of Frozen II (3.32M)

1.458x of Jumanji (6.85M)

4.867x of Dolittle (4.5M)

 

Yeah, something in the 4M range is about right.

[Boxofficerules]

Any Invisible Man Numbers?

[Eric Duncan]

The Photograph Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	53	540	7,916	6.82%

 

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 392

Total Seats Sold Today: 249

 

Comp

0.498x of Hustlers (1.24M)

0.798x of Black and Blue (538K)

1.093x of Harriet (656K)

1.340x of Just Mercy (1.07M)

1.292x of Like a Boss (1.29M)

0.125x of Bad Boys (793K)

 

Eh, I guess 1M is possible.

[Krissykins]

Never heard of Onward until now lol

[Cappoedameron]

So far Sonic is looking at a 4 million preview. Which could lead to a around 45 million weekend. 

 

In my area for preview night Sonic is doing decent. No showings are sold out. But they are semi full.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Cappoedameron

[dudalb]

14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Never heard of Onward until now lol

Really? Trailer has been playing with most Disney films.

But, yeah, the film is just not getting the kind of advance buzz that Pixar films usually get.

I was not that impressed with the Trailer but then a number of Pixar films that were excellent did not have all that great a trailer.

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/12/2020 at 2:07 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

89

282

31.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

77

318

24.21%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
444	95	4204	10.56%	9	30

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 266

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.44M

Jumanji comp: 3.48M

Sonic the Hedgehog Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

290

1027

28.24%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

152

931

16.33%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1188	744	7010	16.95%	9	48

 

Showings added: 18

Seats added: 2806

 

Dolittle comp: 3.18M

Jumanji comp: 4.46M

Frozen 2 comp: 2.88M

Maleficent comp: 3.37M

Addams Family comp: 3.45M

Abominable comp: 3.31M

Lion King comp: 3.60M

 

Jumanji and Frozen 2 don't seem to be good comps at this point, so I'll throw those out. Average the rest out, and I get 3.38M for the comp. So, I'll go with that.

[DAJK]

Sonic is playing in the exact same auditoriums as Pikachu did at the Victoria theatres (they have different # seat capacities and they're the same). Same # of showtimes too, so I think that once shows get started Pikachu will be the best comp for me. But I'll of course add others as well. 

[keysersoze123]

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sonic the hedgehog (T-1)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1512 shows 27613/235631 414979.05 334210.19 +7390
MTC2 Prev - overall 1783 shows 18799/256331 230628.34 164405.34 +5255
MTC1 OD - overall 3545 shows 63886/592581 855607.25 696350.93 +22396
MTC2 OD - overall 3511 shows 60404/548771 644493.47 511724.49 +19419
MTC1 D2 - overall 3562 shows 38544/592039 474017.35 413735.30 +12466
MTC2 D2 - overall 3515 shows 32911/549857 323916.70 274090.48 +9102

 

Good day but not as good as I expected 🙂 If the preview numbers double tomorrow it should be good for 3.5m. With better walkins even 4m can happen. OD is where the main action is and that had another good day though it tapered off a bit in the evening. Saturday PS is also very robust and what is great is MTC1/2 ratio which shows movie is playing strong in big cities and smaller cities overall. I will stick to 50m+ 3 day and 60m+ 4 day for now. 

Sonic the Hedgehog(Previews update)
MTC1 - overall 1541 shows 50059/238899 719061.52 573940.51

MTC2 - overall 1801 shows 38282/258527 459261.75 326460.74

 

Very good increase so far. I think it can finish 110K+. Let us see how the walkups are in west coast/central in next few hours. I will check around 9PM. For now I would say 3.75m previews. But it can hit 4m if walkups are better. 

Edited February 14, 2020 by keysersoze123

[a2k]

Malef2 did 16.1x previews as a sequel without holiday boost.

F2 did 15.3x again as a sequel and no holiday boost in ow.

Sonic will have no sequelitis, VD boost on Fri and PD boost on Sun.

 

It will have Sonic fans front-loading somewhat but 15-16x is a given over FSS no?

3.5 previews, 3.5*15-16 = 52.5-56 fss, high-60s/low-70s 4-day.

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

Malef2 did 16.1x previews as a sequel without holiday boost.

F2 did 15.3x again as a sequel and no holiday boost in ow.

Sonic will have no sequelitis, VD boost on Fri and PD boost on Sun.

 

It will have Sonic fans front-loading somewhat but 15-16x is a given over FSS no?

3.5 previews, 3.5*15-16 = 52.5-56 fss, high-60s/low-70s 4-day.

On the other hand, Pika did just 9.5 as a non-sequel. Seems almost unbelievable in retrospect.    
 

The Fri and Sat PS make me think 50s for the true FSS should be the most likely, would be mid 60s+ for 4.5-day

[keysersoze123]

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Photograph(T-1) previews

MTC1 prev - overall 963 shows 6830/132886 91447.15 71357.72 +2584
MTC2 prev - overall 940 shows 2393/119901 27698.66 19183.80 +772

MTC1 OD - overall 1905 shows 26624/292669 357842.57 284372.31 +9566

MTC2 OD - overall 1634 shows 16327/225195 176917.28 130237.72 +4639

 

Not much action for previews. if it triples this number it will hit 800K previews. Let us see how walks up go tomorrow. 

 

Edit: updated with OD numbers and they are quite good. With good walkups I could see Photograph true friday > BOP True Friday !!!!!

Photograph(Previews Update)

MTC1 - overall 1028 shows 14052/140237 182804.68 141811.62

MTC2 - overall 944 shows 6325/120500 72524.71 50005.73

 

Looks to finish around what I thought yesterday(800k previews). 

[ZackM]

Sonic - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: D-0
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	29	96	-	-	-
Seats Added	5,941	26,352	-	-	-
Seats Sold	4,718	2,892	-	-	-
	Shows w/o Reserved Seats	Shows w/ Reserved Seats	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0 (8:30PM EST)	205	90	8,695	11,169	-	2,474	2,474	22.15%
D-1	399	266	55,741	60,052	901	3,410	4,311	7.18%
D-2	550	336	65,625	67,823	1,509	689	2,198	3.24%
D-3	518	306	61,773	62,594	579	242	821	1.31%
Total	1,672	998	191,834	201,638	2,989	6,815	9,804	4.86%

 

Sales have picked up, but the number of shows is really poor.  BOP had 35% more reserved seat shows than Sonic has total shows.

[Parasite]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Photograph(T-1) previews

MTC1 prev - overall 963 shows 6830/132886 91447.15 71357.72 +2584
MTC2 prev - overall 940 shows 2393/119901 27698.66 19183.80 +772

MTC1 OD - overall 1905 shows 26624/292669 357842.57 284372.31 +9566

MTC2 OD - overall 1634 shows 16327/225195 176917.28 130237.72 +4639

 

Not much action for previews. if it triples this number it will hit 800K previews. Let us see how walks up go tomorrow. 

 

Edit: updated with OD numbers and they are quite good. With good walkups I could see Photograph true friday > BOP True Friday !!!!!

How's Day 2 looking like? 

Endless Love dropped - 52% and About last night - 37%...

[keysersoze123]

39 minutes ago, Parasite said:

How's Day 2 looking like? 

Endless Love dropped - 52% and About last night - 37%...

I have not looked at D2 yet. Will check tomorrow if its interesting. Mostly I track big breakouts only beyond previews/OD.