The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

On the other hand, Pika did just 9.5 as a non-sequel. Seems almost unbelievable in retrospect.    
 

The Fri and Sat PS make me think 50s for the true FSS should be the most likely, would be mid 60s+ for 4.5-day

true dat. video game effect. sonic multi could suffer from that too. pika was may 2nd week where i feel previews are heavier and hope that sonic makes it to 12x+ if not 15x+. if pika had a 20% sun drop would have done 10x multi. Valentine Day inflation could have pushed it a little higher than that.

Edited February 14, 2020 by a2k

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

true dat. video game effect. sonic multi could suffer from that too. pika was may 2nd week where i feel previews are heavier and hope that sonic makes it to 12x+ if not 15x+. if pika had a 20% sun drop would have done 10x multi. Valentine Day inflation could have pushed it a little higher than that.

Considering OD is looking at 5x previews, I dont see how it does just 12x. I would say 15-17x previews depending on saturday walkups which should be really good looking at previews ticket data today. 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That would be awful for Onward. Let us see how PS goes. I will provide 1st update over the weekend as openers this week are interesting to track. 

I am actually not surprised, though shall clear 50mn hopefully and once reviews come may be boost a bit.

 

That said looking forward to legs.

[Movies4Life]

Let’s hope it can hit $4M in previews when all it’s Thursday night shows end.

[tonytr87]

22 minutes ago, cJS said:

I am actually not surprised, though shall clear 50mn hopefully and once reviews come may be boost a bit.

 

That said looking forward to legs.

 

50 mil+ would be great for Onward. It's a March release and marketing-wise it looks more akin to Dreamworks than Pixar. 

[cdsacken]

43 minutes ago, a2k said:

true dat. video game effect. sonic multi could suffer from that too. pika was may 2nd week where i feel previews are heavier and hope that sonic makes it to 12x+ if not 15x+. if pika had a 20% sun drop would have done 10x multi. Valentine Day inflation could have pushed it a little higher than that.

I mean end game gobbled it up hard too. BOP isn't similar just 10x less popular.

 

Sonic has room to soar.

Edited February 14, 2020 by cdsacken

[Cappoedameron]

19 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I mean end game gobbled it up hard too. BOP isn't similar just 10x less popular.

 

Sonic has room to soar.

People seem to forget how much competition DP had and was still able to be successful. Sonic could not survive where Pikachu was. 

 

Sonic in it's place now has room to soar especially with such lackluster releases on the horizon and BOP being a flop BO wise. I don't think Sonic will make more then Pikachu but here's hoping WB takes notice and gives Pika 2 a better release date.

 

And Paramount needs a win.  This is a win for video game films and Paramount a non Disney studio. It's more then welcome.

 

With Pika 2, Mortal Kombat, and Mario on horizon hopefully the video game movie genre only goes up from here.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Cappoedameron

[keysersoze123]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Photograph(T-1) previews

MTC1 OD - overall 1905 shows 26624/292669 357842.57 284372.31 +9566

MTC2 OD - overall 1634 shows 16327/225195 176917.28 130237.72 +4639

 

Edit: updated with OD numbers and they are quite good. With good walkups I could see Photograph true friday > BOP True Friday !!!!!

Photograph OD PS

MTC1 -  overall 1991 shows 39976/305079 529711.69 421271.29

MTC2 - overall 1645 shows 23659/226073 253708.03 187809.95

 

I must admit the it did not increase as much as what i thought yesterday. So double digits friday looks tough but it could still hit 7-8 friday. 

[tonytr87]

30 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

People seem to forget how much competition DP had and was still able to be successful. Sonic could not survive where Pikachu was. 

 

Sonic in it's place now has room to soar especially with such lackluster releases on the horizon and BOP being a flop BO wise. I don't think Sonic will make more then Pikachu but here's hoping WB takes notice and gives Pika 2 a better release date.

 

And Paramount needs a win.  This is a win for video game films and Paramount a non Disney studio. It's more then welcome.

 

With Pika 2, Mortal Kombat, and Mario on horizon hopefully the video game movie genre only goes up from here.

 

I don't care for this movie, but if Sonic doing well means Paramount keeps chugging, I'm all for it. 

[filmlover]

I wouldn't worry too much about Paramount. They have a number of movies with potential (A Quiet Place 2, Spongebob, Top Gun 2, Infinite, Without Remorse, The Trial of Chicago 7, Clifford, Coming 2 America, The Tomorrow War) coming up this year while next year they have the next Mission: Impossible movie and the newest movies from Chazelle and most likely Scorsese if his is shooting soon. Every studio goes through a dry spell every now and then: look at the comeback Sony has made in recent years after a few rough ones, for example.

[TalismanRing]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Considering OD is looking at 5x previews, I dont see how it does just 12x. I would say 15-17x previews depending on saturday walkups which should be really good looking at previews ticket data today. 

The internal for the FSS for VD w/e for LEGO was 2.915 of Friday (previews were just 400k). I'd expect Sonic to be more front loaded than that

Edited February 14, 2020 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

Gonna double check tracking/predictions for Onward, but I'm almost certainly skipping it locally (I try to stick to my threshold of 7m previews/70m 3 day).

 

Did do a check around the region just now, just in case.  And while it's about 90 minutes sooner than I normally do a check, Onward has sold...

 

23 tickets.

 

In the entire region.

 

===

 

Now, it isn't up at some of the theaters in town.  But the best it's done in the heavy hitters in town is five tickets sold at one showing at the local Studio Movie Grill and eight tickets sold at one showing at Regal Delta Shores.  Everywhere else is ghost town city.  Even the ever-popping Century Arden has only sold a couple of tickets.

 

I realize this probably isn't the type of family film to burst out of the gate with strong pre-sales.  But I have to admit I was expecting something a little more heavy than this.  So, like I said, probably not gonna track it locally.

 

[Eric Atreides]

3 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

On the other hand, Pika did just 9.5 as a non-sequel. Seems almost unbelievable in retrospect.    

To be fair, Pokemon's been frontloaded in the past. The First Movie's first 5 days made up almost 60% of its final total, while Pokemon 2000 did about 2.23x from its OW, which is still frontloaded even today. Really, Pokemon's just a fan-driven property.

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The internal for the FSS for VD w/e for LEGO was 2.915 of Friday (previews were just 400k). I'd expect Sonic to be more front loaded than that

Ok.I thought lego opened week before VD weekend? Are you talking about Lego 2?

 

What I said is Friday is looking like 5x previews. Plus previews its already at 6x. 15x should happen. Saturday PS is not bad at all and walk ups will be even better on saturday. I feel Saturday BO will be slightly up from friday despite VD bcos core audience is families and tomorrow its a school day. Sunday drop also will be soft with monday being president's day. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Gonna double check tracking/predictions for Onward, but I'm almost certainly skipping it locally (I try to stick to my threshold of 7m previews/70m 3 day).

 

Did do a check around the region just now, just in case.  And while it's about 90 minutes sooner than I normally do a check, Onward has sold...

 

23 tickets.

 

In the entire region.

 

===

 

Now, it isn't up at some of the theaters in town.  But the best it's done in the heavy hitters in town is five tickets sold at one showing at the local Studio Movie Grill and eight tickets sold at one showing at Regal Delta Shores.  Everywhere else is ghost town city.  Even the ever-popping Century Arden has only sold a couple of tickets.

 

I realize this probably isn't the type of family film to burst out of the gate with strong pre-sales.  But I have to admit I was expecting something a little more heavy than this.  So, like I said, probably not gonna track it locally.

 

7m previews was never on the table. Even Inside out did only 3.7m thursday on route to 90m OW. 

 

I think next movie you will track will be Bond. With that being Craig finale 7m+ previews should happen. 

[Legion Again]

2015 was a different era than 2020 for previews, but I doubt Onward finds anywhere close to IO levels of success. 

[DAJK]

Sonic Victoria:

 

71% Detective Pikachu - 4.05M

72% Birds of Prey - 2.88M

45% Frozen 2 - 3.83M

110% Dark Fate - 2.59M

122% Maleficent - 2.81M

82% King of the Monsters - 5.17M

79% John Wick - 4.66M

 

Taking out the top and bottom outlier, the average for the set of comps (the ones I looked at at least, since I wanted a mix of fan-driven movies and kids content) is 3.64M. While the Maleficent comp gives me a little bit of pause, the fact that both Frozen and Pikachu are closer to 4M, I'm going to increase my prediction a bit from the average.

 

Going to say 3.85M, or pretty much in line with the Frozen comp. 

[tonytr87]

29 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

2015 was a different era than 2020 for previews, but I doubt Onward finds anywhere close to IO levels of success. 

 

Onward will be successful, but it's going to suffer slightly due to how prevalent meta fantasies have been when it comes to animated films. 

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

2015 was a different era than 2020 for previews, but I doubt Onward finds anywhere close to IO levels of success. 

I never said Onward will come close to IO. I said that there was no way onward will come close to 7m previews even if it hits IO OW. 

 

BTW Are you saying a pixar original will have much smaller previews to OW ratio now compared to 2015? I dont know why an unknown family film will have big previews. It will more of a weekend movie. Soul will have much bigger hype as Docter is helming it but even that wont come close to 7m previews. Even a hugely hyped Frozen 2 did only 8.5m previews. 

 

 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Onward will be successful, but it's going to suffer slightly due to how prevalent meta fantasies have been when it comes to animated films. 

I think it’ll do fine, but IO made the DOM top 30 and I dunno if Onward makes the top 130