The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

On 1/31/2020 at 10:41 PM, keysersoze123 said:

WOW. its PS is on fire. 

 

End of Day 1

Fast and Furious 9 (T - 111)

MTC1 - overall 682 shows 7008/152460 124445.53
MTC2 - overall 1960 shows 3282/319730 43343.42 

 

its almost on par with BOP OD but that has only 9 days of PS vs 112 for F9. 

Fast and Furious 9 (T - 94)

MTC1 - overall 954 shows 16769/208629 288634.02 

MTC2 - overall 1945 shows 7210/316826 95594.69

 

I am impressed by how well its doing at MTC1. It sold almost 10K tickets in under 3 weeks. Still its almost impossible to predict how big its previews will be. Only thing I am sure it will be way higher than Hobbs and Shaw. 

[Eric Duncan]

Brahms: Dat Boi II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	33	2,577	1.28%

 

Comp

0.500x of Crawl 3 days before release (500K)

0.268x of Scary Stories (625K)

0.733x of 47 Meters (378K)

1.064x of Black Christmas (245K)

0.971x of Underwater (485K)

1.650x of Gretel & Hansel (784K)

 

Yeah, shaping up to be a no1curr

[Eric Duncan]

The Call of the Wild Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	18	37	2,801	1.32%

 

Comp

0.394x of Dora 3 days before release (492K)

2.176x of Racing in Rain (979K)

0.804x of Abominable (523K)

0.389x of Addams Family (487K)

1.370x of Playing with Fire (617K)

0.597x of Dolittle (552K)

 

FWIW, being significantly ahead of Racing in the Rain is nice to see, since it's arguably the best comp here. We'll see if it will come down to Earth or not.

[Eric Duncan]

Onward Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	44	8,937	0.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp

0.383x of Maleficent 17 days before release (880K)
1.375x of Dolittle (1.27M)

0.898x of Sonic (2.69M)

 

Still slow, but at least some tickets got sold.

[Eric Duncan]

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-94 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	366	12,658	2.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Brahms: Dat Boi II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	20	33	2,577	1.28%

 

Comp

0.500x of Crawl 3 days before release (500K)

0.268x of Scary Stories (625K)

0.733x of 47 Meters (378K)

1.064x of Black Christmas (245K)

0.971x of Underwater (485K)

1.650x of Gretel & Hansel (784K)

 

Yeah, shaping up to be a no1curr

After me and a few friends watched the first The Boy, a few of us came back to my house and we made a "they must have been drunk at 3AM sequel" with original characters that admittedly had nothing to do with the actual movie. We were babysitting a garden gnome named Bradshaw who ultimately locked our character in a room and attributed Gandhi quotes to Shakespeare. It went up on a few of our snapchat stories the next day.

 

I would argue that more people saw that movie than are going to see the actual sequel to The Boy. 

Edited February 18, 2020 by DAJK

[a2k]

Grudge 21, Turning 15, Fantasy Island 25 (using 2x multi), Gretel & Hansel 15-16 dom. Boy2 could do half of Boy1's 36 dom.

18 dom for Boy2 would take the combined dom of these 5 horror films to 95. Not even averaging 20.

 

AQP2 needs to put some life into the genre.

[Boxofficerules]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

Grudge 21, Turning 15, Fantasy Island 25 (using 2x multi), Gretel & Hansel 15-16 dom. Boy2 could do half of Boy1's 36 dom.

18 dom for Boy2 would take the combined dom of these 5 horror films to 95. Not even averaging 20.

 

AQP2 needs to put some life into the genre.

Invisible Man?

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

Grudge 21, Turning 15, Fantasy Island 25 (using 2x multi), Gretel & Hansel 15-16 dom. Boy2 could do half of Boy1's 36 dom.

18 dom for Boy2 would take the combined dom of these 5 horror films to 95. Not even averaging 20.

 

AQP2 needs to put some life into the genre.

Black Christmas 10

Underwater 17  

 

Horror has been on an epic streak since the holiday season began.

[Boxofficerules]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Black Christmas 10

Underwater 17  

 

Horror has been on an epic streak since the holiday season began.

Black Christmas poisoned the well.

[Madhuvan]

Feels like Onward and Mulan both gonna flop/underperform + flopping of Call of the wild. 

Not looking good for Disney this year. 

There is strong chances Disney ends up 4th at box office. 

No movie looks like a sureshot 300m+ Domestic. There are always breakouts but what a tragic year of them. 

 

Only 1 movie looks like sureshot 300m+ Domestic and that's WW84. 

 

Pessimistic predictions for Disney : ow/Domestic total

 

Onward  40m/140m

Mulan 55m/140m

Black Widow 100m/270m

Soul  55m/170m

Jungle Cruise 30m/100m

Eternals  95m/250m

Raya the last dragon  70m 5-day/180m

 

Total Domestic :1.25b 

Not looking good. 

[lorddemaxus]

35 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Invisible Man?

Doubt it breaks out. Sounds really good based on what I've heard but the marketing has been crap and the embargo is lifting pretty late (Tuesday night PST).

Edited February 18, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[TMP]

27 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Only 1 movie looks like sureshot 300m+ Domestic and that's WW84. 

Dune erasure. Also just because two Disney movies underperform doesn't mean they all will... Black Widow will win the summer

[Inceptionzq]

4 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

Feels like Onward and Mulan both gonna flop/underperform + flopping of Call of the wild. 

Not looking good for Disney this year. 

There is strong chances Disney ends up 4th at box office. 

No movie looks like a sureshot 300m+ Domestic. There are always breakouts but what a tragic year of them. 

 

Only 1 movie looks like sureshot 300m+ Domestic and that's WW84. 

 

Pessimistic predictions for Disney : ow/Domestic total

 

Onward  40m/140m

Mulan 55m/140m

Black Widow 100m/270m

Soul  55m/170m

Jungle Cruise 30m/100m

Eternals  95m/250m

Raya the last dragon  70m 5-day/180m

 

Total Domestic :1.25b 

Not looking good. 

Plus 167M from Frozen 2 and TRoS. 1.42B total for your pessimistic predictions. Let’s see what the other studios have for 2020.

 

Warner Bros:

Scoob!

Wonder Woman 1984

In The Heights

Tenet

The Conjuring 3

Godzilla v Kong

Dune

Tom and Jerry

+103M from released movies

 

Sony:

Bloodshot

Peter Rabbit 2

Ghostbusters

Morbius

Venom 2

Wish Dragon

+408M from released movies

Universal: 

The Invisible Man

No Time to Die

Trolls World Tour

Fast 9

Minions 2

The Purge 5

Halloween Kills

The Croods 2

+255M from released movies

Plus a bunch of smaller movies for all these studios.

 

It might be closer than I initially thought, but it’s a stretch to say that Disney has a strong chance of ending up in 4th.

[lorddemaxus]

26 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Plus 167M from Frozen 2 and TRoS. 1.42B total for your pessimistic predictions. Let’s see what the other studios have for 2020.

 

Warner Bros:

Scoob!

Wonder Woman 1984

In The Heights

Tenet

The Conjuring 3

Godzilla v Kong

Dune

Tom and Jerry

+103M from released movies

 

Sony:

Bloodshot

Peter Rabbit 2

Ghostbusters

Morbius

Venom 2

Wish Dragon

+408M from released movies

Universal: 

The Invisible Man

No Time to Die

Trolls World Tour

Fast 9

Minions 2

The Purge 5

Halloween Kills

The Croods 2

+255M from released movies

Plus a bunch of smaller movies for all these studios.

 

It might be closer than I initially thought, but it’s a stretch to say that Disney has a strong chance of ending up in 4th.

Sony's definietly coming 4th imo. None of their upcoming films are going to pass 200 mil.

[charlie Jatinder]

Onward is gonna be a legs beast. The best Pixar legs for non-Holiday season film. 5x unless OW is boosted hugely by WoM.

Edited February 18, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[filmlover]

I keep forgetting there was even a first The Boy.

[charlie Jatinder]

My expectations for Disney : ow/Domestic total

 

Onward: 60m/300m

Mulan: 45m/140m

Black Widow: 130m/300m

Soul: 90m/340m

Jungle Cruise: 30m/90m

Eternals: 150m/400m

Raya the last dragon: 70m 5-day/180m

 

Total Domestic: 1750m

 

Edited February 18, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[YM!]

33 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Sony's definietly coming 4th imo. None of their upcoming films are going to pass 200 mil.

I can see Venom 2 getting there with Morbius and Machines doing in the 150M range.

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Onward is gonna be a legs beast. The best Pixar legs for non-Holiday season film. 5x unless OW is boosted hugely by WoM.

I agree to an extent, thinking around 4-4.5x with good WOM, there’s also a lot of family competition from Mulan, Peter Rabbit and Trolls which may impact late legs.