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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 hour ago, Shawn said:

We actually include a variety of metrics, not just social (esp. close to release). Accuracy is generally only relevant in apples-to-apples comps and/or upon release week since a variety of elements are always in play. Bit unfair to compare any service tracking weeks/months out to data that's not available until much later in the pre-release window. :)

 

Tracking is really just a barometer of where things are heading at any given point in time, not an official prediction. That's the biggest difference between traditional tracking and looking at pre-sales -- the latter is a set-in-stone sales point that removes more of the challenge of separating interest from actual intent to see on opening weekend, but it's also limited in its use because (by definition) it can only include movies that are on sale. Dolittle was a good example because it only tracked (in our models) ahead of BBFL before reviews started leaking. Two weeks out, we showed BBFL steadily climbing higher.

 

Everything else is measured in surveys, historical comps, and trend-based elements that are open to fluctuation at any given time. To be fair though, we include pre-sales trajectories and that kind of tracking has proven fairly volatile too depending on what samples and what comps one looks at. There's always a certain subjectivity to all of this. That's why we focus on all available data and update as necessary, not just one subset of info at one point in time.

Thanks Shawn. I meant initial prediction which is generally seen 6-7 weeks before release. I thought industry tracking is not out until 3 weeks before release. I was not critiquing BOP. Just put it that when predictions are made long before release they tend to be all over the place. Breakouts are under predicted while disappointments are over predicted(DP/BOP etc). We also have movies like Frozen 2 where final weekend was very close to initial prediction(125m?). I understand predictions tend to change a lot once we have tracking data. 

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 6 1434 0.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 10 1610 0.62%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
40 1 7694 0.52% 9 40

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 6 1434 0.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 14 1610 0.87%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
54 14 7694 0.70% 9 40

 

Looks like the social media reactions gave a nice boost.

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On 2/16/2020 at 8:03 PM, Inceptionzq said:

So I just did a quick check of the Feb 29th showings for Onward. 118 tickets sold vs 35 as of yesterday for Thursday previews in Denver.

Feb 29th showings are up to 146 tickets sold now. 28 sold in 3 days

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On 2/16/2020 at 12:45 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Invisible Man(T-11)

MTC1 - overall 661 shows 1833/139882 32306.93 26808.86

MTC2 - overall 766 shows 773/143200 9577.42 6989.71

 

I have been hearing that this movie could breakout. But no signs from PS perspective. 

Invisible Man(T-8)

MTC1 - overall 750 shows 3180/160625 55488.70 45975.33 +1347

MTC2 - overall 770 shows 947/144025 11809.92 8591.96 +174

 

At least it sold some tickets in MTC1. Most of the shows that have sold well are in big cities. May be this could be a late bloomer. 

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Brahms: Boys II (T-1)

MTC1 Prev - overall 503 shows 1670/67379 21651.14 16671.93

MTC2 Prev - overall 524 shows 698/65925 8060.90 5548.21

MTC1 OD - overall 1409 shows 1870/188907 24197.04 19095.99

MTC2 OD - overall 1261 shows 1663/171369 16510.02 12527.53

 

Dire numbers. sub 0.5m previews and single digit OW I would say. 

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The Boy 2 is coming for a sub-$5M opening. Different genres but it reminds me of Hot Tub Time Machine 2, another unwanted and untimely sequel to a forgotten movie that only did modestly in the first place, to the point where the biggest reaction the sequel inspires is "there was a first one?"

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18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Boy 2 is coming for a sub-$5M opening. Different genres but it reminds me of Hot Tub Time Machine 2, another unwanted and untimely sequel to a forgotten movie that only did modestly in the first place, to the point where the biggest reaction the sequel inspires is "there was a first one?"

I got a trailer for this when my Dad and I saw Birds of Prey, and his reaction at the end was literally "there was a first one?" He doesn't like horror, but still.

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Brahms: Dat Boi II Greater Philadelphia Seat Report T-1 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 22 50 2,769 1.81%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 192

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp

0.322x of Crawl 1 day before release (322K)

0.178x of Scary Stories (415K)

0.625x of 47 Meters (322K)

0.417x of Ready or Not (304K)

0.847x of Black Christmas (195K)

0.555x of Underwater (278K)

0.980x of The Turning (417K)

0.694x of Gretel & Hansel (330K)

 

lol

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The Call of the Wild Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 24 72 3,537 2.04%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 238

Total Seats Sold Today: 23

 

Comp

0.576x of Dora 1 day before release (720K)

1.756x of Racing in Rain (790K)

0.935x of Abominable (608K)

0.332x of Addams Family (415K)

1.241x of Playing with Fire (559K)

0.673x of Dolittle (622K)

 

Eh.

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Onward Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 44 58 8,937 0.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp

0.500x of Maleficent 15 days before release (1.15M)
1.706x of Dolittle (1.58M)

0.866x of Sonic (2.6M)

 

Honestly feel it could have sold a little more, but I feel that for most movies. Regardless, a reaction bump was put into effect here. I'm hoping to see some decent gains when reviews drop on Friday.

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F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-92 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 52 371 12,658 2.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Yawn.

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The Call of the Wild(T-1)

MTC1 Prev - overall 752 shows 5794/120308 93451.18 76168.00

MTC2 Prev -overall 874 shows 3388/121469 39614.35 27592.15

MTC1 OD - overall 2053 shows 10510/341064 147990.99 123894.50

MTC2 OD - overall 2114 shows 10910/314907 106532.90 85688.44 

 

One thing is weird about MTC2 Prev numbers. i must have posted OD BO instead of Previews BO. Anyway previews look weak. It should Triple or do slightly more and that should be good for 0.6-0.7m. But OD PS is promising. If that is doubled or so it should have good OW. 

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3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

so it should have good OW. 

Such a shame for this film, it can’t compete with its $125m budget. 
 

My parents went to see it yesterday (UK) and loved it. I’d never even heard of it til last weekend. 

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9 hours ago, filmlover said:

The Boy 2 is coming for a sub-$5M opening. Different genres but it reminds me of Hot Tub Time Machine 2, another unwanted and untimely sequel to a forgotten movie that only did modestly in the first place, to the point where the biggest reaction the sequel inspires is "there was a first one?"

You know I follow the movies...a lot...and I admit, my addled brain sat here and was wondering whether there was a 1st one, or whether it was some cutesy title...at least you answered my question without me having to look it up:)...

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:F9 Fast and Furious may 21, 2020. Toronto Ontario Canada taken feb 20

 

Yonge Dundas

530 0/77
630 7/77
845 2/77
945 0/77

Avx
600 1/381
900 4/381

4dx
500 5/78
800 13/78

 

Yonge Eglinton
Vip
600 1/91
700 4/95
930 8/91
1030 0/95

Avx
600 4/349
900 3/349

 

Eglington town
Imax
700 19/348
1025 0/348

Reg
630 0/260
930 0/260

 

Don Mills
Vip
600 0/115
700 4/115
930 11/115
1030 0/115

 

Yorkdale
Avx
720 23/349
1020 2/349

 

Scotiabank 
Imax
700 73/416
600 77/558
930 77/558
1030 5/416

 

Queensway 
Vip
600 11/124
700 19/136
930 19/124
1030 6/136

Avx
630 4/377
1000 2/377

 

409/7892 (5 percent sold)

A movie 3 months out already at 5 percent sold.  Another example of movies selling months in advance seems to be receptive for big IP movie franchises so far. 
 

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9 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

:F9 Fast and Furious may 21, 2020. Toronto Ontario Canada taken feb 20

 

Yonge Dundas

530 0/77
630 7/77
845 2/77
945 0/77

Avx
600 1/381
900 4/381

4dx
500 5/78
800 13/78

 

Yonge Eglinton
Vip
600 1/91
700 4/95
930 8/91
1030 0/95

Avx
600 4/349
900 3/349

 

Eglington town
Imax
700 19/348
1025 0/348

Reg
630 0/260
930 0/260

 

Don Mills
Vip
600 0/115
700 4/115
930 11/115
1030 0/115

 

Yorkdale
Avx
720 23/349
1020 2/349

 

Scotiabank 
Imax
700 73/416
600 77/558
930 77/558
1030 5/416

 

Queensway 
Vip
600 11/124
700 19/136
930 19/124
1030 6/136

Avx
630 4/377
1000 2/377

 

409/7892 (5 percent sold)

A movie 3 months out already at 5 percent sold.  Another example of movies selling months in advance seems to be receptive for big IP movie franchises so far. 
 

Scotiabank theatre has a glitch in the system I noticed with that one specific theatre. It counts 77 seats sold every time even though they aren’t sold. So that’s 154 tickets that aren’t technically sold. But the fact that the other theatre does have over 70 seats sold already is good though. 

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