The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-88 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	385	12,658	3.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

[Porthos]

Fast & Furious 9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-88 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	14740	15142*	402	2.65%

*NOTE:  Several theaters adjusted their seat maps resulting in 92** more seats available for purchase region wide.

** Yes, I said 92. :-)

 

Total Seats Sold This Week

39

 

Tune in next week, same Bat Fast Time, Same Bat Fast Channel.

[john2000]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Fast & Furious 9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-88 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	14740	15142*	402	2.65%

*NOTE:  Several theaters adjusted their seat maps resulting in 92** more seats available for purchase region wide.

** Yes, I said 92. 🙂

 

Total Seats Sold This Week

39

 

Tune in next week, same Bat Fast Time, Same Bat Fast Channel.

sorry but will you do any update on onward ?

[narniadis]

3 hours ago, john2000 said:

sorry but will you do any update on onward ?

Porthos doesn't usually track a film unless its headed for a 70m+ weekend. 

[john2000]

2 hours ago, narniadis said:

Porthos doesn't usually track a film unless its headed for a 70m+ weekend. 

well to be honest we dont know how onward will do, it may hit an ow of 40 or of 60 + , the presales are not very good indicator to this  , probably it will play like sonic, ramp up , the last week, but most of the job will be from walk ups

Edited February 24, 2020 by john2000

[el sid]

The Invisible Man, counted today at 10am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 123 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 140 (total tickets sold for Friday, 7 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 39 / 39 (12 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 40 / 59 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 30 / 35 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 / 2 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 / 5 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 8 / 12 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 103 / 85 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 49 / 2 (1 showtime)
LA (AMC Universal): 72 / 41 (6 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till today for Thursday: 476 and for Friday: 423.

Comps: Scary Stories (20.9M OW) had on Monday 428/265 sold tickets, Crawl (12M OW) also on Monday 143/114 and Underwater (7M OW) had on Tuesday 118/104.
Especially its Friday number looks good! And I read here that the early WOM seems to be promising too.

Edited February 24, 2020 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

Still Mulan tickets are not even listed on AMC. May not happen today at this rate. Probably sometime this week as MTC2 has listed shows but not on sale as well. 

[keysersoze123]

On 2/22/2020 at 2:40 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Invisible Man(T-5)

MTC1 Prev - overall 777 shows 4790/165078 82655.61 68333.44 +1610
MTC2 Prev - overall 771 shows 1216/143892 15170.40 10997.94 +269
MTC1 OD - overall 1332 shows 2868/303925 51384.58 43612.07 post 6PM 724 shows 2137/167551 38869.78 32582.63
MTC2 OD - overall 1676 shows 1992/325327 22540.29 18068.60 post 6PM 714 shows 1136/140703 14656.86 10685.42

 

It has done well in few IMAX/Dolby shows at plexes in large cities. Otherwise it has done nothing. Looking at OD PS does not show any sign of backloaded run. Its going to be driven by reviews/WOM than huge buzz. 

Invisible Man(T-3)

MTC1 prev - overall 780 shows 6577/165436 112571.11 92922.75 +1787
MTC2 prev - overall 773 shows 1552/144197 19499.63 14124.18 +336

MTC1 OD - overall 1686 shows 4986/379469 87920.24 74292.28 post 6PM 928 shows 3786/211673 67568.36 56452.30 +2118

MTC2 OD - overall 1686 shows 2573/326768 29468.77 23369.60 post 6PM 719 shows 1572/141336 20194.84 14711.92 +581

 

No change in PS narrative. I am thinking this is looking at 2m previews. Gemini Man did 1.6m with MTC1 premium shows dominating its PS as well. I am hoping this movie does better overall with better reviews. I will wait till wednesday before fine tuning OW prediction based on ratio of OD PS vs Previews PS. At least trend from past 2 days is towards OD PS and that is good news. 

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, narniadis said:

Porthos doesn't usually track a film unless its headed for a 70m+ weekend. 

 

3 hours ago, john2000 said:

well to be honest we dont know how onward will do, it may hit an ow of 40 or of 60 + , the presales are not very good indicator to this  , probably it will play like sonic, ramp up , the last week, but most of the job will be from walk ups

Thing is, 60m+ is still under 70m.  More to the point, as an original animation family film it'll probably have a relatively low preview night number.  And the tracking from the stellar duo of @Eric the Hedgehog and @Inceptionzq is backing that up so far.

 

It might very well ramp up, but they can still track like-for-like in those cases.   Anyway, no, sorry.  Not tracking it.

 

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe I'll take a look at the last couple of days, but by then I'll be doing AQP II and possibly NTTD as well as the hahahaha-why-am-I-doing-this-at-this-point* FF9.  So unless I see a really strong surge, it's on the outside looking in.

 

* Why?  Coz it currently takes 18 minutes or so to knock out, and I'm morbidly curious is why.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Thing is, 60m+ is still under 70m.  More to the point, as an original animation family film it'll probably have a relatively low preview night number.  And the tracking from the stellar duo of @Eric the Hedgehog and @Inceptionzq is backing that up so far.

 

It might very well ramp up, but they can still track like-for-like in those cases.   Anyway, no, sorry.  Not tracking it.

 

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe I'll take a look at the last couple of days, but by then I'll be doing AQP II and possibly NTTD as well as the hahahaha-why-am-I-doing-this-at-this-point* FF9.  So unless I see a really strong surge, it's on the outside looking in.

 

* Why?  Coz it currently takes 18 minutes or so to knock out, and I'm morbidly curious is why.

i see, yeah even if it has previews like 4 mill thats still in general low

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

i see, yeah even if it has previews like 4 mill thats still in general low

I forgot to add, there's also advance screening(s) on a previous Sat, which will kneecap the preview number even more.

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

but by then I'll be doing AQP II

WOW, I had to go look up the long-range forecast cause I couldn’t believe it was in your tracking range. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

WOW, I had to go look up the long-range forecast cause I couldn’t believe it was in your tracking range. 

60-80 is right at the, "sure, why not" range. It'll probably be frontloaded as all hell, but even more reason to check out Thur.

 

...

 

Also, if the long-range tracking from @Shawn proves to be off, I get to laugh at BOP reminded once again that this is an art not a science and that even the best of us are still working with limited information that may not prove to be correct once pre-sales actually start. 👍

[Eric Duncan]

I'm still very skeptical of its actual quality, but that OW for Quiet Place 2 doesn't seem that crazy. The trailers and ads remind me of the recent Jumanji film where it has all the things people loved from the first movie, but the formula has shifted just enough to not feel like a rehash.

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/17/2020 at 2:54 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Fast and Furious 9 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

74

1696

4.36%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

78

1506

5.18%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST WEEK	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
297	14	10372	2.86%	9	48

Fast and Furious 9 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

76

1696

4.48%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

81

1506

5.38%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST WEEK	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
306	9	10372	2.95%	9	48

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/21/2020 at 2:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

6

1434

0.42%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

14

1610

0.87%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
65	6	7694	0.84%	9	40

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

22

1434

1.53%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

25

1610

1.55%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 3 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
101	36	7694	1.31%	9	40

 

Sonic comp: 2.59M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 1.57M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/19/2020 at 2:25 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Feb 29th showings are up to 146 tickets sold now. 28 sold in 3 days

Feb 29th showings up to 223 tickets sold. 77 sold in 5 days

[Inceptionzq]

Invisible Man Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

32

1256

2.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

32

1432

2.23%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
114	N/A	5553	2.05%	9	30

 

Terminator comp: 1.20M

Gemini Man comp: 1.56M

[Poseidon]

With Horror usually being more walk-up heavy, this should easily top those comps.  

[keysersoze123]

On 2/21/2020 at 9:53 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Onward

Advance/Marathon Shows(T-8)

MTC1 - overall 110 shows 2771/17628 

MTC2 - overall 104 shows 3721/11669 36939.75 32284.25

 

Not sure the advance screening will make a big dent. Probably will do 0.5m or so. 

 

 

MTC1 Prev - overall 1115 shows 4756/229214 86698.84 72495.69

MTC2 Prev - overall 1123 shows 1908/192893 24569.14 17480.08

MTC1 OD - overall 2083 shows 2885/436131 51155.73 43531.30

MTC2 OD - overall 2458 shows 3134/441362 36434.56 29110.42

 

Will not see these numbers are great but it has another 13 days to go. It could go either way at this point. 

Onward

Advance/Marathon Shows(T-5)

MTC1 - overall 112 shows 4079/17892 66464.27 65744.47 

MTC2 - overall 104 shows 7275/11669 71359.25 61679.50

 

Very good numbers at MTC2. I wonder if they will increase show count otherwise my prediction for advance/marathon shows is the same. 

 

MTC1 Prev - overall 1119 shows 5962/229987 107963.91 90160.99

MTC2 Prev - overall 1123 shows 2472/193065 31901.79 22789.48

MTC1 OD - overall 2564 shows 4679/534511 82315.72 69852.22 post 6PM 1304 shows 3398/274668 62438.39 52450.99

MTC2 OD - overall 2471 shows 4051/442639 47109.84 37477.80 post 6PM 981 shows 2164/178689 28481.38 20361.09

 

Preview sales are affected because of Advance shows. So the numbers wont increase big time until next week. 

 

 

Edited February 25, 2020 by keysersoze123