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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

Given what's happening in the world right now, I feel like securing tickets for a movie weeks in advance is one of the last things on anyone's mind right now :lol:;) Though that also applies to all movies, don't think anyone should be surprised if we see in an unusual level of backloadedness for the foreseeable future given the unpredictable nature of everything at the moment.

I think this is a pretty good reason but I think we'll see theater attendance overall go down because of it and not just presales. We'll see though. No one has any clue what's gonna happen over the next month.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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I honestly am not sure about the coronavirus impact.  I mean, didn't seem to affect Mulan locally.

 

Not saying it won't have an affect; it almost certainly will.  Just not sure it's affecting things yet.

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21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mulan Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 32 1826 1.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 31 1854 1.67%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
146 47 10628 1.37% 9 62

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 4.22M

Mulan Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 32 1826 1.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 33 1854 1.78%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
149 3 10628 1.40% 9 62

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.85M

 

Yikes. Bad day.

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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I honestly am not sure about the coronavirus impact.  I mean, didn't seem to affect Mulan locally.

 

Not saying it won't have an affect; it almost certainly will.  Just not sure it's affecting things yet.

From next week things will be more clear. Cronavirus takes time to be detected. 

 

Hopefully, I am wrong. 

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10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I honestly am not sure about the coronavirus impact.  I mean, didn't seem to affect Mulan locally.

 

Not saying it won't have an affect; it almost certainly will.  Just not sure it's affecting things yet.

 

6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mulan Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 32 1826 1.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 33 1854 1.78%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
149 3 10628 1.40% 9 62

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 3.85M

 

Yikes. Bad day.

Well THAT's a hell of a back to back post. :lol: 

 

(I'll see what it looks like locally much later tonight)

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21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place Part 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 11 1446 0.76%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 7 1665 0.42%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
51     N/A 8185 0.62% 9 38

A Quiet Place Part 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 14 1446 0.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 9 1665 0.54%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
68 17 8185 0.83% 9 38

 

Day 2 sales IT 2 comp: 2.42M

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17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I honestly am not sure about the coronavirus impact.  I mean, didn't seem to affect Mulan locally.

 

Not saying it won't have an affect; it almost certainly will.  Just not sure it's affecting things yet.

I feel like there might be an affect the next time you check because of the two cases near in North Cali including that one near Sacremento (I also got family that lives in Sacremento and they're getting ready for a potential outbreak).

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7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I feel like there might be an affect the next time you check because of the two cases near in North Cali including that one near Sacremento (I also got family that lives in Sacremento and they're getting ready for a potential outbreak).

Do you think the big March films will under-perform?

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22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Onward Feb 29th showings up to 430 tickets sold. 159 sold in 2 days

 

Previews are still slow, but the advanced showings are a very good sign. I think previews will start to really bump up next week with no adv showings taking a lot of the traffic. If it doesn't, then worry can start to set in.

Final count for the showings today are 578 tickets sold. 158 sold in the past day. Still some time to go, but it's at 81% capacity(578/714), so I don't think it'll change too much. The Downton Abbey early showings sold 809 tickets, but that was with 9/9 theaters I track. Onward only has 5 theaters. So I assume that it's in a smaller amount of theaters nationwide too. That and with some theaters sticking to matinee pricing for this, it will be significantly lower than what a Downton Abbey comp would suggest(1.57M FWIW). 

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9 minutes ago, TMP said:

Do you think the big March films will under-perform?

Its really based on how the US reports this. I have no clue when the US will actually announce the likely outbreaks happening in various parts of the country. Right now, they are severely downplaying it so that it doesn't affect the economy. If something huge gets announced this week, I would be inclined to say that Mulan will be delayed while Onward and A Quiet Place 2 pretty much die in cinemas (maybe A Quiet Place 2 gets delayed too but Onward most likely won't because of how close it is to its release date). If it's announced in the 2nd half of the month, then both AQP 2 and Mulan underperform severly. So I'd say at least one big film is underperforming.

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I think it's inevitable for the corona-virus to have an impact on American moviegoing. Give it a few weeks, this will be in every state, and no one is going to want to go out. It's going to be movies, sports, live entertainment, it's all going to suffer.

 

EDIT: Is there a way to track refunds/cancellations of presales? That would be an interesting metric to have over the next month...

Edited by OncomingStorm93
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Decided to check Onward's advance showings today for the hell of it, and for future advance showing comparisons.

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 2 4 574 607 94.56%

 

Of course, I have no actual advance screenings to compare it to, and while it helps that only 4 theaters are showing it in the area, I do feel like this is a very solid total, and having two sellouts shows there is enough interest.

 

And just for fun, I'm gonna do some comps to movies that had full Thursday previews. This is not something to take seriously, and is just me having fun. And hey, maybe if these numbers pan out, we'll have a good laugh about it.

 

Comp

2.828x of Dora (3.53M)

2.551x of Abominable (1.66M)

1.739x of Addams Family (2.17M)

0.823x of Maleficent (1.89M)

0.171x of Frozen II (1.45M)

0.637x of Jumanji (2.99M)

2.126x of Dolittle (1.97M)

0.437x of Sonic (1.31M)

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44 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I feel like there might be an affect the next time you check because of the two cases near in North Cali including that one near Sacremento (I also got family that lives in Sacremento and they're getting ready for a potential outbreak).

Thing is, I think it's tough to separate signal and noise right now.  Non-super blockbusters usually die-down after a couple of days of pre-sales.  And, besides, if Mulan was headed for a 5m Thr anyway, I'd expect it to die down a LOT today.

 

AQP II is much more uncertain, but if it had a crappy day yesterday, I certainly don't expect it to pick up today.

 

===

 

As for "how the US reports this", don't forget who is in charge over here.  Without getting too political, there are a lot of mixed messages being sent out of the Administration.  It'll probably take a pretty large uptick of reported cases that can't be connected to people traveling/people who already were diagnosed before things really get serious here (outside of the stock market).

 

Still, who knows.  

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1 minute ago, Porthos said:

It'll probably take a pretty large uptick of reported cases that can't be connected to people traveling/people who already were diagnosed before things really get serious here (outside of the stock market)

According to LA times, CDC has just announced that they will be outsourcing a 40 labs in California for testing instead of having samples sent to the CDC HQ in Atlanta and they are hoping to start testing at least 4000 patients a day by the end of next week so I think we should get serious news around then and any big effects on theater attendance and presales around then too. 

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Regarding AQPII, I anticipate a % of audiences, I can’t quantify how much, they would have been interested in going will avoid the film, not out of fear of getting sick from someone, but because the film’s depressing post-apocalyptic nature doesn’t mesh well with the notion of a virus actually spreading through society right now.

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1 hour ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Regarding AQPII, I anticipate a % of audiences, I can’t quantify how much, they would have been interested in going will avoid the film, not out of fear of getting sick from someone, but because the film’s depressing post-apocalyptic nature doesn’t mesh well with the notion of a virus actually spreading through society right now.

Now this, on the other hand, is something I WAS thinking about.  Especially as parts of it are showing the collapse via flashback and not the years later aftermath.

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2 hours ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Regarding AQPII, I anticipate a % of audiences, I can’t quantify how much, they would have been interested in going will avoid the film, not out of fear of getting sick from someone, but because the film’s depressing post-apocalyptic nature doesn’t mesh well with the notion of a virus actually spreading through society right now.

 

50 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Now this, on the other hand, is something I WAS thinking about.  Especially as parts of it are showing the collapse via flashback and not the years later aftermath.

I agree that this is an interesting point, but it's a very different type of apocalypse than say a "coronavirus apocalypse". It's an alien invasion, not some plague. IMO it would be a different story if this was Contagion releasing this March. 

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