The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Valonqar]

 

BTW, has BOT layout changed?

[OncomingStorm93]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Cinemas will only start to shut down if it reaches the point where other businesses start to shut down (that hasn't happened yet). In that Variety article yesterday after the Bond move ( https://variety.com/2020/film/news/coronavirus-movie-theater-closure-1203523653/ ) it was mentioned how at worst they expected only a couple of regions to close down, which isn't enough to delay a movie (and also because Disney isn't in the same position as MGM).

That article quotes the movie theater companies as saying they don't expect mass closures.

 

What else do you expect the AMC CEO to say on a conference call with investors?

 

They will be in "no problem, nothing to see here" mode until they are shouting it from the hospital beds.

 

Movie theaters don't need to close for audiences to start avoiding them.

34 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Edit: Also Germany boxoffice hasn't collapsed yet eventhough there are over 300 cases there so maybe moviegoing here won't be affected unless the government actually shuts cinemas down or a bit later into its run when confirmed cases gets enormous (like thousands)?

Germany only had 50 confirmed cases when last weekend began.

 

Yesterday they had 250 confirmed. Today, 400 confirmed.

 

So lets not pretend that we have the data to assume the impact at the German box office yet. Lets see what this weekend looks like.

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

That article quotes the movie theater companies as saying they don't expect mass closures.

 

What else do you expect the AMC CEO to say on a conference call with investors?

 

They will be in "no problem, nothing to see here" mode until they are shouting it from the hospital beds.

 

Movie theaters don't need to close for audiences to start avoiding them.

But this applies to all businesses though, not just movie theaters. You're no more likely to come in contact with someone potentially with Coronavirus going to the movies than you are grocery shopping or going to the mall or...you get the picture. And nobody is suddenly gonna put everything on hold for a hypothetical doomsday scenario unless it actually happens because people gotta put food on the table.

 

We'll have a better idea of what the impact could be over the next few weeks because we have movies coming out that are expected to bring in huge amounts of crowds (plus the COVID-19 numbers likely going up). So far, there hasn't been any notable impact, though that's impossible to say if there is or isn't when there hasn't been anything expected to make Marvel money out in a while.

Edited March 5, 2020 by filmlover

[el sid]

I'm really sorry but since Friday the counting doesn't work (again this „we couldn't find anything that related to your search“). I also can't sign in or use the newsletter to get access which are normally helpful tricks. When this happened in the past ca. one week later it worked again and I will start counting as soon as possible.
But I see that enough members are reporting how it looks for Onward and that it's not so bad that I missed this week.

PS: To bring at least some news: The prediction for Onward in Germany is 175-200k admissions OW and ca. 800-900k total admissions (which would be slightly above The Good Dinosaur). And I could find only 4 reviews for Onward but those were always very good (4/5 and 5/6).
As Aristis mentioned in the German thread half of the cases are from one city (I heard because of an ill kindergarten teacher). Maybe we react pretty calm here because - I know it's not exactly the flu – but the number of people who had the flu this winter crossed 100k some time ago (two years ago it were 300.000 total infections with almost 1.000 people dying.) I just (deeply) hope that it stays so relatively overseeable.

Edited March 5, 2020 by el sid

[OncomingStorm93]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

But this applies to all businesses though, not just movie theaters. You're no more likely to come in contact with someone potentially with Coronavirus going to the movies than you are grocery shopping or going to the mall or...you get the picture. And nobody is suddenly gonna put everything on hold for a hypothetical doomsday scenario unless it actually happens because people gotta put food on the table.

 

We'll have a better idea of what the impact could be over the next few weeks because we have movies coming out that are expected to bring in huge amounts of crowds. So far, there hasn't been any notable impact.

Yes, it will affect all businesses.

 

No, we don’t have the data yet that shows a domestic impact. But that’s not data we would expect at this point. Don’t read into data that doesn’t exist.

 

Yes, we have the data that shows 70%-80% weekend to weekend drops in Italy and Souty Korea’s first weekend after their outbreaks took hold.

 

Yes, America is far behind both those countries in Coronavirus testing capability. We probably have hundreds of undiagnosed cases at the moment, and who knows who those people are infecting.

 

A spiraling outbreak + the lack of testing capability + another 7 days of this when the amount of known cases is doubling every 2-3 days currently = only god knows how bad this is going to get.

 

I don’t think the impacts will be felt much this weekend. I’m expecting next weekend is when the tank begins.

Edited March 5, 2020 by OncomingStorm93

[Madhuvan]

One thing is clear after Mulan tracking that people were interested in the movie. 

 

With good reviews it could have done even better. 

[dudalb]

And the news keeps getting .in the US..worse by the day. A lot could happen between now and Mulan opening day.

Biggest danger is not theaters closing down, but people deciding to minimize their exposure and not going out in crowds anymore then absoultley necessary. That could really hurt not only Mulan, but film intendence as a whole.

[OncomingStorm93]

Per CDC, we are now up to 205 cases.

 

Up from 111 yesterday.

 

Up from 57 on Monday.

 

Up from 14 a week ago.

 

Do the math people. The outbreak is here. We just can't tell how large it really is because of the lack of testing ability. We're still not even close to where we need to be in testing capability.

 

At minimum, we have 1,000 confirmed cases a week from now. At the absolute, bare-fucking-minimum. By the time Mulan is scheduled to release? Well, we don't have enough data yet to predict 3 weeks out, but going off of the growth in Italy and South Korea, we should have 4,000+ cases diagnosed, again at the absolute minimum, in two weeks from now.

 

The only reassuring factor in that calculation is that America's population trounces those nations by any given metric, so it will be a much smaller portion of the population affected than in those countries.

 

But thousands of cases are still thousands of cases. And people will notice. People will stay home. No one wants to get sick, but even more importantly, no one wants to get sick and then be responsible for exposing their loved ones to this.

 

Anyone who doesn't think this is a big deal. Anyone who thinks we won't see impacts for a number of weeks. Wake up. Mulan isn't opening to anything close to $85m. Not even close.

Edited March 5, 2020 by OncomingStorm93

[dudalb]

It's not so much the acutal number of cases/deaths, but how people react to the news that is the issue as far as the box office impact goes.

 

[efialtes76]

Fear and hysteria are more dangerous than COV.

[narniadis]

We get it OncomingStorm.... and most of us agree with you but we do have other things to discuss around here that doesnt require a beating over the head red alert. 

 

That being said.... 

Mulan hitting 85m under best of circumstances would have been a win so its a given barring a change it goes down. Deadline is just doing the job the rest are doing publicly - reporting the data as it is today. We are blessed with both insider knowledge and years of box office smarts and get to discuss the pros/cons of the actual life factors in a way that we know goes on behind the scenes at the studios. 

Edited March 5, 2020 by narniadis

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mulan Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

52

1826

2.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

50

1854

2.70%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
226	13	10628	2.13%	9	62

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 5.46M

Mulan Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

52

1826

2.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

51

1854

2.75%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
232	6	10628	2.18%	9	62

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 5.38M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place Part 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

25

1446

1.73%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

26

1665

1.56%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
123	8	8185	1.50%	9	38

 

Day 6 of sales IT 2 comp: 3.43M

A Quiet Place Part 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

28

1446

1.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

28

1665

1.68%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
132	9	8185	1.61%	9	38

 

Day 7 of sales IT 2 comp: 3.45M

[keysersoze123]

Onward Previews(Mid Day Update)

MTC1 - overall 1652 shows 25454/301155 416605.17 341090.35

MTC2 - overall 1857 shows 15182/273453 188461.16 134536.05

 

Need MTC1 to sell another 20K tickets and MTC2 to double from this point. Definitely on as shows will be starting soon. No change in my prediction from yesterday night(2.5m thursday previews). 

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, narniadis said:

We get it OncomingStorm.... and most of us agree with you but we do have other things to discuss around here that doesnt require a beating over the head red alert. 

 

That being said.... 

Mulan hitting 85m under best of circumstances would have been a win so its a given barring a change it goes down. Deadline is just doing the job the rest are doing publicly - reporting the data as it is today. We are blessed with both insider knowledge and years of box office smarts and get to discuss the pros/cons of the actual life factors in a way that we know goes on behind the scenes at the studios. 

Couldn't agree more. It doesn't feel like a discussion anymore as it does a lecture about how much we should care/be worried about the virus. Yes of course there is a place for that kind of conversation, but it shouldn't be hijacking the tracking thread. 

[Eric Duncan]

Onward Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	669	14,150	4.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 342

 

Comp

3.296x of Dora (4.12M)

2.973x of Abominable (1.93M)

2.027x of Addams Family (2.53M)

0.960x of Maleficent (2.21M)

0.742x of Jumanji (3.49M)
2.478x of Dolittle (2.29M)

0.509x of Sonic (1.53M)

 

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a bit disappointed in the final number here, but a lot of the data does at least point to previews in the 2M+ range, so I'll just hope other people's data points look better for the time being.

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/4/2020 at 2:42 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

89

1510

5.89%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

65

1747

3.72%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
371	67	9435	3.93%	9	57

 

Showings added: 8

Seats added: 837

 

Sonic comp: 2.51M

Jumanji comp: 2.91M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.33M

Adjusted Addams Family comp: 2.98M

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

161

1510

10.66%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

144

1747

8.24%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
902	531	9706	9.29%	9	59

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 271

 

Sonic comp: 2.28M

Dolittle comp: 2.41M

Jumanji comp: 3.39M

Maleficent comp: 2.56M

Addams Family comp: 2.62M

Abominable comp: 2.52M 

 

The obvious outlier here is Jumanji, so I'm gonna throw that comp out. Average the rest out, and it comes out to 2.48M.

[ZackM]

Onward - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: D-0
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	6	163	1,659	115	-
Seats Added	2,196	40,209	376,716	21,228	-
Seats Sold	8,155	2,782	2,345	681	-
	Shows w/o Reserved Seats	Shows w/ Reserved Seats	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0 (9:30PM EST)	83	185	38,767	45,013	-	6,246	6,246	13.88%
D-1	250	724	182,178	185,879	1,523	2,178	3,701	1.99%
D-2	383	956	226,515	230,210	2,194	1,501	3,695	1.61%
D-3	352	885	212,880	214,903	1,395	628	2,023	0.94%
Total	1,068	2,750	660,340	676,005	5,112	10,553	15,665	2.32%

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

Onward - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: D-0
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	6	163	1,659	115	-
Seats Added	2,196	40,209	376,716	21,228	-
Seats Sold	8,155	2,782	2,345	681	-
	Shows w/o Reserved Seats	Shows w/ Reserved Seats	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0 (9:30PM EST)	83	185	38,767	45,013	-	6,246	6,246	13.88%
D-1	250	724	182,178	185,879	1,523	2,178	3,701	1.99%
D-2	383	956	226,515	230,210	2,194	1,501	3,695	1.61%
D-3	352	885	212,880	214,903	1,395	628	2,023	0.94%
Total	1,068	2,750	660,340	676,005	5,112	10,553	15,665	2.32%

So MTC 4 suggests something around $2.25mn previews till 9:30 PM. Hopeful for over $3mn.

 

Keyser data was at 1.8mn 6 hours back. Let's see.

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	154	11,049	1.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 30

 

Comp

0.207x of It: Chapter Two 14 days before release (2.17M)

 

Not sure why today was so strong in ticket sales, but I'm happy with this.