The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

What is tracking thread suggesting about Mulan. I don't care about industry tracking.

[Eric Atreides]

Mulan Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	166	9,423	1.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp

1.711x of Maleficent 21 days before release (3.94M)

[Eric Atreides]

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-77 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	397	12,658	3.14%

 

Total Seats Lost Today: 2

 

Two consecutive lost days  

[Eric Atreides]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

What is tracking thread suggesting about Mulan. I don't care about industry tracking.

My numbers at the moment are kind of low, but I don't like predicting anything this far out, since the numbers very quickly fluctuate. I do like Inceptionzq's data. Feel like that would lead to about 70M if that 5.38M number holds. But of course, like I said, these numbers fluctuate. I'll be more confident in about three weeks...y'know, if Disney is still pushing for it.

[filmlover]

36 minutes ago, Eric Lightfoot said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	154	11,049	1.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 30

 

Comp

0.207x of It: Chapter Two 14 days before release (2.17M)

 

Not sure why today was so strong in ticket sales, but I'm happy with this.

People want to see Apocalypse movies while the Apocalypse is happening for real. Why else do you think Contagion has become so popular again?

[keysersoze123]

I did not update Mulan after OD, but OD was very good but after that its slowed to a crawl. But that is expected. Its definitely ahead of Onward but they are not comparable as this is PG13 movie. I definitely think 70m+ OW at this point but let us get closer to release to get better picture. 

 

I will post an update tomorrow or saturday for Mulan(and AQP2). 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Onward(T-1)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1654 shows 18529/302006 310377.66 255368.71

MTC2 Prev - overall 1841 shows 9498/272525 119574.52 85568.59

MTC1 OD - overall 4447 shows 22220/842811 353343.38 296090.27 post 6PM 2124 shows 15164/409997 255486.57 211286.93

MTC2 OD - overall 4336 shows 21673/692740 240745.33 189835.29 post 6PM 1666 shows 11738/274017 148107.18 105240.27

MTC1 D2 - overall 4734 shows 25862/889273 333372.36 295377.70 post 6PM 2157 shows 7434/413003 122511.02 102971.15

MTC2 D2 - overall 4364 shows 25367/695818 254652.77 216736.74 post 6PM 1627 shows 4387/267986 56408.07 39966.23

 

I wont say it was a big day. its all down to final day walk ups. I am expecting MTC1 to increase 2.5x and MTC2 to triple final day for previews. Should be suffice for 2.5m thursday previews. I will try to update previews in the afternoon as previews start in east coast. Still hopeful that it will have good OW with walkups.

Onward Previews Final

MTC1 - overall 1660 shows 38376/301408 604168.61 490887.95

MTC2 - overall 1866 shows 29925/274333 365151.78 259545.02

 

Not a great finish at MTC1. I am thinking 1.8-2.2m thursday previews at this point 😞

 

MTC1 OD - overall 4504 shows 35215/851031 535878.44 447734.58 post 6PM 2150 shows 23016/413751 374399.98 307584.52

MTC2 OD - overall 4331 shows 35001/690725 380291.33 301012.09 post 6PM 4331 shows 35001/690725 380291.33 301012.09

MTC1 D2 - overall 4751 shows 34693/893098 438189.52 387916.73 post 6PM 2164 shows 9760/414746 158495.37 132934.59

MTC2 D2 - overall 4365 shows 34327/694097 341977.15 291172.15 post 6PM 1623 shows 6014/267116 76251.39 53951.59

 

Again increase is bit muted. I am sure walk ups will be good. But I am thinking 10-12m OD. Reducing OW expectations to 40-45m at this point. I hope I am wrong and the movie has crazy walkups. . 

 

Based on walk ups let us see if COVID-19 has any impact. 

[dabble]

Anything on The Way Back

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, dabble said:

Anything on The Way Back

No previews. I had posted OD numbers earlier today. Just check couple of pages back. 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Onward Previews Final

MTC1 - overall 1660 shows 38376/301408 604168.61 490887.95

MTC2 - overall 1866 shows 29925/274333 365151.78 259545.02

IDK what are you using as a comp but using general formula, 

MTC1 lower end is (490/0.8) assuming 25% gives $2.45mn

MTC2 lower end is (260/0.8) assuming 13% gives $2.5mn

 

The higher end is $3mn on MTC 1 and $3.5mn on MTC 2. I would like to think $2.75-3mn is possibility, but your word's final.

 

Giving a random guess, will say

MTC 1: $675k

MTC 2: $375k

MTC 3: $550k estd

MTC 4: $120k 

 

Total: $1720k

 

I don't think this shall go lower than $2.5mn.

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 OD - overall 4504 shows 35215/851031 535878.44 447734.58 

MTC2 OD - overall 4331 shows 35001/690725 380291.33 301012.09 

That's roughly 2.9mn OD pre-sales. Using 3.4-3.5x gives $9.85-10.2mn. That's low. Under $45mn. Ugh.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

IDK what are you using as a comp but using general formula, 

MTC1 lower end is (490/0.8) assuming 25% gives $2.45mn

MTC2 lower end is (260/0.8) assuming 13% gives $2.5mn

 

The higher end is $3mn on MTC 1 and $3.5mn on MTC 2. I would like to think $2.75-3mn is possibility, but your word's final.

 

Giving a random guess, will say

MTC 1: $675k

MTC 2: $375k

MTC 3: $550k estd

MTC 4: $120k 

 

Total: $1720k

 

I don't think this shall go lower than $2.5mn.

I have seen MTC1+2 from 43 to 55% of overall gross just for previews. They seem to over index. Saw that for Sonic and Invisible Man recently. Only movie that slightly under indexed was Call of the Wind(1m previews). 

 

Call of the Wind

MTC1 - overall 831 shows 17059/132152 257120.41 206699.12

MTC2  - overall 881 shows 14035/122716 161085.89 112795.03

 

Even with that its not making more than 2.2m. FYI this is not including early advance/marathon BO last saturday(0.65m). 

 

 

[KP1025]

That opening would not be good for Onward. Pixar originals have a very good track record of crossing $200 million, but that projected opening means even $150 million will not be easy. Looks like a Good Dinosaur situation again. 

[Legion Again]

Would not be surprised with something like 40->100 and a neverending debate about what it would have made without covid

[TMP]

4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Would not be surprised with something like 40->100 and a neverending debate about what it would have made without covid

Do we have any idea on how it's expected to do overseas?

[Porthos]

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

[Includes Double Features from Wednesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	72	11675	11982	307	2.56%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	178
Total Seats Sold Today	53

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp (Perhaps LOL comp - Don't take too seriously)

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
It 2	32.76		61	937		0/117	13966/14903	6.29%		3.44m
AQP 2 (adj)	n/a		53	307		0/72	11113/11420	2.69%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: AQP 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for It: Chapter 2. 

PRE-SALE NOTE: It Chapter 2 had 36 days of pre-sales while A Quiet Place Part II has 22 days of pre-sales.

 

===

 

Wed/Thr Breakdown:

 

Wednesday Night Double Feature Seat Report: T-14 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	7	1404	1568	164	10.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

28

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	10271	10414	143	1.37%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	178
Total Seats Sold Today	25

 

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Do we have any idea on how it's expected to do overseas?

Most of the international threads seem pretty dead atm but I'd personally guess worse than The Good Dinosaur. Even Mexico (where Pixar is huge) seems to having underwhelming presales.

Edited March 6, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Madhuvan]

Onward should be officially named Bombs Away. 

Mulan as Bombs Away 2.

[TMP]

5 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Onward should be officially named Bombs Away. 

Mulan as Bombs Away 2.

Scoob as Bombs Away 3 😁

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Onward was honestly decently full during my 6pm showing. About 3/4. The film itself isn’t amazing but the ending is surprisingly effective and heartwarming. Lots of laughter throughout from the kids