The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[dudalb]

Just now, john2000 said:

i could see them holding it without presales till 15 of april, , if things are shit by that time, then, there is no reason to think that they will be way better 2 weeks after, if things are good, then well, but yeah unlike mulan , i dont think that they wil drop the presale for bw

Late April would be about when the theater contracts for BW would be signed and presales begin, but that is not written in stone.

BTW the theatres handle presales,not Disney.

[keysersoze123]

Since @el sid mentioned here you go. 

 

Thursday Previews Mid day update

Bloodshot

MTC1 - overall 1129 shows 13018/194641 192912.27 155181.67

MTC2 - overall 1275 shows 8112/193083 102268.71 73950.87

 

Hunt

MTC1 - overall 626 shows 6781/77392 87123.82 66928.18

MTC2 - overall 602 shows 2307/70808 26037.83 17866.09

 

I Still Believe

MTC1 - overall 1128 shows 14483/194573 212321.42 170434.52

MTC2 - overall 690 shows 7371/93563 79961.40 54731.99

 

Its going to be close between Bloodshot and I Still Believe depending on how walk ups go. I am skeptical on walkups and so not sure there is enough steam for 1m+ previews but on a normal day these numbers should have taken previews above 1m. 

 

Hunt on the other hand gonna bomb big time. 0.3m or so. 

[john2000]

hey question um what will happen with mulan presales, will they refund ?

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

hey question um what will happen with mulan presales, will they refund ?

All movies that were set to open the next few weeks will refund. It's the most anyone can do at this point beyond seeing how the situation progresses.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

hey question um what will happen with mulan presales, will they refund ?

obviously. they cannot hold on to money after cancelling the shows. PS had a great start and then slowed down big time. Its good they cancelled it now instead of waiting longer. 

[dudalb]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

hey question um what will happen with mulan presales, will they refund ?

Yeah, unless the theaters want a world of legal hurt for violating consumer protection laws to descend on them.

Edited March 12, 2020 by dudalb

[Tinalera]

The impression i get too is seeing where we are with april for everything. 

 

Next month is going to feel empty as everyone sees how things play out.

 

Reading about cinemark having a bit of a tough time, think buying cineplex when they did didnt help ( not saying theyll go bankrupt or anything). But they couldnthave forseen this i dont think

[filmlover]

I imagine theaters will want to stay open for as long as they can to see if they can make some dollars off the holdovers and studios will be paying attention to the situation and making their decisions from there (the fact nothing is really blowing up the box office right now means they can keep crowds under control). Although if Trolls (the only thing left between now and May) ends up moving it's more likely than not that theaters will just shut down.

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I imagine theaters will want to stay open for as long as they can to see if they can make some dollars off the holdovers and studios will be paying attention to the situation and making their decisions from there (the fact nothing is really blowing up the box office right now means they can keep crowds under control). Although if Trolls (the only thing left between now and May) ends up moving it's more likely than not that theaters will just shut down.

I would not be surprised if some multiplexes closed some of their screens just to cut down on overhead expenses.

[kitik]

well, looks like this thread is going to be boring for the next month or two

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Since @el sid mentioned here you go. 

 

Thursday Previews Mid day update

Bloodshot

MTC1 - overall 1129 shows 13018/194641 192912.27 155181.67

MTC2 - overall 1275 shows 8112/193083 102268.71 73950.87

 

Hunt

MTC1 - overall 626 shows 6781/77392 87123.82 66928.18

MTC2 - overall 602 shows 2307/70808 26037.83 17866.09

 

I Still Believe

MTC1 - overall 1128 shows 14483/194573 212321.42 170434.52

MTC2 - overall 690 shows 7371/93563 79961.40 54731.99

 

Its going to be close between Bloodshot and I Still Believe depending on how walk ups go. I am skeptical on walkups and so not sure there is enough steam for 1m+ previews but on a normal day these numbers should have taken previews above 1m. 

 

Hunt on the other hand gonna bomb big time. 0.3m or so. 

Ignore MTC1 update for I Still Believe. Too much in my mind and my data was wrong. 

 

Based on data I see Bloodshot having best previews (probably 1-1.2m range). Hunt about 0,4-0.5m and I still believe somewhere between the 2. I will guess 0.7m but my data is not clean enough to confirm. 

 

Looking at PS tomorrow I still believe should have the best day as PS for Hunt and Bloodshot look bad(Hunt looks like outright bomb). Bloodshot could still miss double digits if walk ups are meh. 

 

Onward should win the weekend easily even with ok hold. 

[Felandria]

Hunt was actually playing stronger than Bloodshot at Disney Springs, last I had checked, the two shows of Hunt had outsold the SIX showtimes of Bloodshot.

 

unless we think Bloodshot is more prone to walk ups?

[Tinalera]

So reading WB is pulling down its websites for "84 days till"? 

 

WW84 also being bumped? Anyone have more info?

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So reading WB is pulling down its websites for "84 days till"? 

 

WW84 also being bumped? Anyone have more info?

Movie is far enough away that we probably won't know anything for another couple of weeks. For now, the main concern (for everyone) is slowing down the spread of this thing.

[Tinalera]

33 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Movie is far enough away that we probably won't know anything for another couple of weeks. For now, the main concern (for everyone) is slowing down the spread of this thing.

I totally understand that. Its not a worry or anything in regards to pushback. Just wanted to put it out there. Seeing as it might be a bit before we get movies to track and talk about.  

 

Not meaning to seem insensitive about current situation, its all very real i know. 

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

I totally understand that. Its not a worry or anything in regards to pushback. Just wanted to put it out there. Seeing as it might be a bit before we get movies to track and talk about.  

 

Not meaning to seem insensitive about current situation, its all very real i know. 

It's all good. But yeah, I doubt we'll be seeing any activity on the movie front until April to see where we're at like everyone else is (the theme parks are closed for the rest of the month and Broadway has suspended everything until middle of April).

Edited March 13, 2020 by filmlover

[dudalb]

Disney is suspending all US based film production until further notice.

[Firepower]

20 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Everyone's stopped tracking. But looking at how its been doing before its looking at a sub 10 mil OW. Will be even worse if theater attendance dies this weekend (which is likely at this point)>

For some reason I had a guess that Bloodshot would benefit from competitors losing their release dates 😊

[kitik]

not a lot to look forward to over the next few weeks!!!!

 

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Range	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Distributor
4/10/2020	Trolls: World Tour	$17,000,000 – $27,000,000	$23,500,000		$60,000,000 – $90,000,000	$81,000,000		Universal
4/17/2020	My Spy	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	$6,500,000		$15,000,000 – $35,000,000	$21,000,000		STX
4/24/2020	Antebellum	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$12,000,000		$20,000,000 – $40,000,000	$34,000,000		Lionsgate
4/24/2020	Bad Trip		n/a			n/a		United Artists Releasing
5/1/2020	Black Widow	$90,000,000 – $130,000,000	$115,000,000		$220,000,000 – $320,000,000	$306,000,000		Disney / Marvel Studios
5/8/2020	Run	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$10,000,000	NEW	$20,000,000 – $30,000,000	$25,000,000	NEW	Lionsgate
5/8/2020	Run Sweetheart Run		n/a			n/a		OTL Releasing / BH Tilt / Universal

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, kitik said:

not a lot to look forward to over the next few weeks!!!!

 

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Range	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Distributor
4/10/2020	Trolls: World Tour	$17,000,000 – $27,000,000	$23,500,000		$60,000,000 – $90,000,000	$81,000,000		Universal
4/17/2020	My Spy	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	$6,500,000		$15,000,000 – $35,000,000	$21,000,000		STX
4/24/2020	Antebellum	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$12,000,000		$20,000,000 – $40,000,000	$34,000,000		Lionsgate
4/24/2020	Bad Trip		n/a			n/a		United Artists Releasing
5/1/2020	Black Widow	$90,000,000 – $130,000,000	$115,000,000		$220,000,000 – $320,000,000	$306,000,000		Disney / Marvel Studios
5/8/2020	Run	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$10,000,000	NEW	$20,000,000 – $30,000,000	$25,000,000	NEW	Lionsgate
5/8/2020	Run Sweetheart Run		n/a			n/a		OTL Releasing / BH Tilt / Universal

I think 0 of these movies will come out in the time period covered by LRF.