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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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You guys are seriously understanding the power of capitalism, the love of money and the desperation of people.

 

As soon as the government says they can reopen, chains will be open the next day and run like they always were. People will return. Look at all the dumbasses on the beach right now and they aren’t supposed to there. Wait until the government says it’s ok. Beaches, theatres, planes, Disney World will all be packed again with minimal changed unless they government enforces them. 

 

I’m not sure when they will start putting out blockbusters again though. I think studios might wait a few weeks to see how it goes.

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3 hours ago, AJG said:

The $1.5b+ movie is dead forever btw.

And the 1b club is dead for sometime. It will probably be several years before we see another movie pass a billion. And a movie passing a billion will become an extreme rarity again.

Edited by RockyMountain
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I disagree with all of this. We just had 9 billion dollar films in a single year. Unless you guys think this pandemic is going o destroy the world as we know it without hope of rebuilding, Hollywood isn’t just gonna die forever lmao. Way too much pessimism on here

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If closures last 5 months plus, which is not guaranteed but definitely on the table, I think it could accelerate the pre-existing trend of switching to home/digital media consumption. Even with 2019 as a banner year for blockbusters, admissions continued their downward trend from the turn of the century.

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11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I disagree with all of this. We just had 9 billion dollar films in a single year. Unless you guys think this pandemic is going o destroy the world as we know it without hope of rebuilding, Hollywood isn’t just gonna die forever lmao. Way too much pessimism on here

Even though 'event' films still made a lot of money fewer people had been going to the theater already for years. It is now more convenient than ever to watch movies outside of the theater. Give people a good reason not to go to a crowded theater (like catching a potential deadly illness) and attendance to these places will drop off a cliff.

 

I don't think anyone is saying 'Hollywood' will die. But how we watch the things Hollywood makes for us likely will change. In my opinion I think it will be for the better as too much money was being spent on these movies anyways.

Edited by RockyMountain
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2 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Even though 'event' films still made a lot of money fewer people had been going to the theater already for years. It is now more convenient than ever to watch movies outside of the theater. Give people a good reason not to go to a crowded theater (like catching a potential deadly illness) and attendance to these places will drop off a cliff.

 

I don't think anyone is saying 'Hollywood' will die. But how we watch the things Hollywood makes for us likely will change. In my opinion I think it will be for the better as too much money was being spent on these movies anyways.

Understandable. I do think it will be good for studios to get some sort of wake-up call on the overspending. At the same time, I don't want to live in a world where studios will no longer take risks and do something like allow James Cameron to spend 200M+ on a 3-hour romance, or give Nolan 220M to make an original thriller. 

 

Still, this virus isn't going to last forever (or at least, at the level it's at right now). Things will eventually go back to normal at some point, it would be silly to expect this to go on forever and ever. 

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7 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

If closures last 5 months plus, which is not guaranteed but definitely on the table, I think it could accelerate the pre-existing trend of switching to home/digital media consumption. Even with 2019 as a banner year for blockbusters, admissions continued their downward trend from the turn of the century.

At the very least we are probably looking at them staying closed through May (they aren't going to even think about opening again until the virus stops spreading all that much). If we are still seeing numerous people die and get infected on a daily basis a month or two from now we could be looking at them staying closed for the rest of 2020.

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4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Understandable. I do think it will be good for studios to get some sort of wake-up call on the overspending. At the same time, I don't want to live in a world where studios will no longer take risks and do something like allow James Cameron to spend 200M+ on a 3-hour romance, or give Nolan 220M to make an original thriller. 

 

Still, this virus isn't going to last forever (or at least, at the level it's at right now). Things will eventually go back to normal at some point, it would be silly to expect this to go on forever and ever. 

No one is thinking it will last forever. But it is possible it could take a year or so before we really get control of this and if it takes that long the movie theaters will be all but dead.

Edited by RockyMountain
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32 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

If closures last 5 months plus, which is not guaranteed but definitely on the table, I think it could accelerate the pre-existing trend of switching to home/digital media consumption. Even with 2019 as a banner year for blockbusters, admissions continued their downward trend from the turn of the century.

I doubt it, studios will probably just look back on this period as an unusual time of unforeseen circumstances that took out everything in its path, including a Disney/Pixar joint (Onward was never gonna challenge their greatest hits but would've made double what it did in a normal situation). Maybe they'll continue to dump their movies that weren't gonna be big players (like The Lovebirds, which likely would've made Little numbers at best in theaters but will likely be a popular "background noise" attraction on Netflix), but I suspect things will go back to business as usual like it was pre-pandemic.

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4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I doubt it, studios will probably just look back on this period as an unusual time of unforeseen circumstances that took out everything in its path, including a Disney/Pixar joint (Onward was never gonna challenge their greatest hits but would've made double what it did in a normal situation). Maybe they'll continue to dump their movies that weren't gonna be big players (like The Lovebirds, which likely would've made Little numbers at best in theaters but will likely be a popular "background noise" attraction on Netflix), but I suspect things will go back to business as usual like it was pre-pandemic.

Studios are really at the mercy of audiences here. 

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4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Studios are really at the mercy of audiences here. 

I've I said this elsewhere but it's not like streaming services are gonna be immune to the pain in all of this as well. Depending on how long this lasts, there are guaranteed to be people who will be dropping Netflix or Hulu because those aren't essentials in life either (unless they drop their prices down to nothing, which they won't). It's a situation where everyone's gonna hurt for a long time.

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58 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I disagree with all of this. We just had 9 billion dollar films in a single year. Unless you guys think this pandemic is going o destroy the world as we know it without hope of rebuilding, Hollywood isn’t just gonna die forever lmao. Way too much pessimism on here

Look beyond the big hits and you will realize there was only one movie between 200M and 300M last year. That's not a sustainable thing.

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29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I doubt it, studios will probably just look back on this period as an unusual time of unforeseen circumstances that took out everything in its path, including a Disney/Pixar joint (Onward was never gonna challenge their greatest hits but would've made double what it did in a normal situation). Maybe they'll continue to dump their movies that weren't gonna be big players (like The Lovebirds, which likely would've made Little numbers at best in theaters but will likely be a popular "background noise" attraction on Netflix), but I suspect things will go back to business as usual like it was pre-pandemic.

The few event films we were getting each year were masking the fact that the theater business had been a deteriorating industry for years. Once this is done the ones that make it through will try to go on but there indeed will be a lot of changes and it will be difficult to ever get the crowds back that were in the theaters for the past few years (especially considering that both Marvel and Star Wars ended their current storylines in 2019).

 

 

Edited by RockyMountain
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12 hours ago, grim22 said:

Look beyond the big hits and you will realize there was only one movie between 200M and 300M last year. That's not a sustainable thing.

Yea we all know that last year was top-heavy, but to think that this is going to kill the movie industry forever (and forever is a looooong time) is ridiculous imo

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On 3/21/2020 at 8:13 AM, kitik said:

But if you start with the basic assumption that theaters will reopen, the question is how they would go about it. Would 4000 theaters nationwide all announce in unison that they're all opening at one time on June 1 (or September 1 or whenever)? Would it go state-by-state? Could theaters in California open a week or three before theaters in Florida? Chain by chain?

 

So just judging by China, you're not going to want to open your giant Black Widow/Wonder Woman tentpole in the first week or two after theaters reopen. (Which we already knew, but here's some hard numbers.)

 

https://deadline.com/2020/03/china-movie-theaters-open-500-international-box-office-1202890025/

 

It'll be interesting to hear reports from China over the new few weeks.

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On 3/22/2020 at 6:14 PM, Frozen said:

You guys are seriously understanding the power of capitalism, the love of money and the desperation of people.

 

As soon as the government says they can reopen, chains will be open the next day and run like they always were. People will return. Look at all the dumbasses on the beach right now and they aren’t supposed to there. Wait until the government says it’s ok. Beaches, theatres, planes, Disney World will all be packed again with minimal changed unless they government enforces them. 

 

I’m not sure when they will start putting out blockbusters again though. I think studios might wait a few weeks to see how it goes.

What is  happening in China says otherwise.

I see you don't get what basic fear does to people....

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On 3/22/2020 at 7:25 PM, DAJK said:

I disagree with all of this. We just had 9 billion dollar films in a single year. Unless you guys think this pandemic is going o destroy the world as we know it without hope of rebuilding, Hollywood isn’t just gonna die forever lmao. Way too much pessimism on here

Agree, but the idea that theaters will reopen and audineces will come flocking back right away   is just mistaken.If it's get bad ..which it will..it will leave scars. I can see for a couple of months after things return to normal people will keep gathering in groups to a  minimum..work, shopping, but avoiding unnessecary large groups.

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