The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[kitik]

20 minutes ago, dudalb said:

No way that is happening, no studio is going to risk a huge release right after the theaters reopen. They will test the waters with a minor release before releasing the big films. Too much fear that audiences will still stay area from crowds of their  own volition even after theaters reopen.

 

So then when will the first big release be?

[TLK]

I think they'll start opening theaters in June and the first big release should be in July.

[grim22]

50 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

So then when will the first big release be?

At least 8 weeks after theaters open IMO.

 

First 4 weeks after theaters open will be classic movies and recent blockbusters, then smaller movies with stronger fanbase followings like A24 movies for example, and then less risk movies from the big studios, and only then we will see the big movies start.

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, kitik said:

 

So then when will the first big release be?

The Forever Purge, seem a perfect testing affair/first wide release attempt for studio, cheap enough, on the nose a bit subject matter (the small horror budget but still big franchise that open really well and wide seem the obvious pick).

 

If it open a 2 million, I imagine that could change people plans and people will push the announced release, if it does well they will kept them.

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Barnack

[Damianport1]

Cinemas might never open again. At least it's more likely than opening in june.

[TLK]

52 minutes ago, Damianport1 said:

Cinemas might never open again. At least it's more likely than opening in june.

This is ridiculous. Cinemas will start opening in many parts of the World within the next few weeks.

[filmlover]

This is what the first half of Summer 2020 looks like now:

 

May 8: The High Note

May 29: Irresistible, The Green Knight

June 12: Greenland

June 19: The King of Staten Island, Fatale

 

Needless to say, none of these are likely to stick unless studios want to use them as tests to see if people are willing to go to the movies again if theaters reopen in June. I'd say King of Staten Island (the Pete Davidson/Judd Apatow movie) would make sense as a straight-to-streaming title like The Lovebirds since promo for it hadn't even started yet and more people are probably likely to see it that way than to check it out in a theater, but would Apatow be on board with that?

Edited April 14, 2020 by filmlover

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Damianport1 said:

Cinemas might never open again. At least it's more likely than opening in june.

Lmao so ridiculous 😂

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Barnack said:

The Forever Purge, seem a perfect testing affair/first wide release attempt for studio, cheap enough, on the nose a bit subject matter.

 

If it open a 2 million, I imagine that could change people plans.

 

I agree 100% - that movie skews into the age range least affected my Covid...it's cheap, but it's known...and it might be willing to open, especially if it gets Endgame blockouts for its OW...I mean, even at 50% capacity theaters (if they reduce seating), it will be worth staying put if it gets 66-75% of all screens on OW...

[Damianport1]

12 hours ago, TLK said:

This is ridiculous. Cinemas will start opening in many parts of the World within the next few weeks.

There is nothing to show until like july. They wont open withing few weeks.

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, Damianport1 said:

There is nothing to show until like july. They wont open withing few weeks.

I can see drive-ins opening Memorial Day, especially in the rural areas...

I can see "lowly impacted" states opening their main theaters with restrictions around the same time (or about June 1)...and those places showing the movies that haven't hit demand that were around in March, some foreign films, and some classic films...

I can see "highly impacted" states opening their main theaters with severe restrictions for July 4th weekend aka July 1 (the same time that lowly impacted states might reduce some restrictions on their theaters)...

And (this is all assuming all goes well), I could see all US theaters operating at 50% capacity everywhere by Labor Day (and possibly Aug 1)...

 

But then you could have a 2nd wave...and a 2nd shutdown or pause...or we could be golden and looking at a great October-December period...that part is still totally uncertain...

[filmlover]

The Governor of CA has said that he doesn't believe events of hundreds of people should happen until a vaccine is found so who knows what will happen with movie theaters, though I imagine they'll be implementing the 50% capacity rules if they open by July (and stay that way for the rest of the year). Big events though like concerts and movie premieres and sports with crowds are definitely a lost cause in coming back by the end of the year.

[DAJK]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

The Governor of CA has said that he doesn't believe events of hundreds of people should happen until a vaccine is found so who knows what will happen with movie theaters, though I imagine they'll be implementing the 50% capacity rules if they open by July (and stay that way for the rest of the year). Big events though like concerts and movie premieres and sports with crowds are definitely a lost cause in coming back by the end of the year.

Does this affect film production at all?

[filmlover]

28 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Does this affect film production at all?

Don't know.

[TLK]

There may be insurance issues with new film productions as well. I don't see many insurance companies taking any risks this year unless there is a well-documented cure and/or a vaccine readily available.

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, TLK said:

There may be insurance issues with new film productions as well. I don't see many insurance companies taking any risks this year unless there is a well-documented cure and/or a vaccine readily available.

It's not just film productions on hold, don't forget.  Near as I can tell, shooting for practically the entire entertainment industry ended. By hitting in mid-March, Broadcast/cable TV got a little lucky as there should still be stuff for Fall, at least for the front half. 

 

But the longer this goes on, the more content is gonna dry up.  As for streaming services, as they're on a more variable calendar, who knows how they'll be affected.  I know that Mandalorian S2 just made it in under the gun with its main shoot.  Though there's always post-production hassles which might not get as smoothed out as folks would like. Reshoots and pickups, for instance.  ADR and line cleanup (which is just another version of voice work - see below) also could be affected.

 

Even animated series might not be entirely off the hook.  People still have to show up to record lines (which is dicey; I know of at least one place that relies on audio entertaiment is currently shuttered for new recordings). Final rendering still has to be done by animation houses (in the States and abroad).  Even before that stage, it could still be affected, depending on the workflow that needs to be done in-house on dedicated equipment.

 

And that doesn't get into capital issues due to money freezing up.

 

Live Action TV might have a decent lead time, but sooner or later, content will dry up there as well.  Animation might able to squeak through, but anything with live action and a decent sized crew could be a lot more uncertain in the short and medium term.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Porthos

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

It's not just film productions on hold, don't forget.  Near as I can tell, shooting for practically the entire entertainment industry ended. By hitting in mid-March, Broadcast/cable TV got a little lucky as there should still be stuff for Fall, at least for the front half. 

 

But the longer this goes on, the more content is gonna dry up.  As for streaming services, as they're on a more variable calendar, who knows how they'll be affected.  I know that Mandalorian S2 just made it in under the gun with its main shoot.  Though there's always post-production hassles which might not get as smoothed out as folks would like. Reshoots and pickups, for instance.  ADR and line cleanup (which is just another version of voice work - see below) also could be affected.

 

Even animated series might not be entirely off the hook.  People still have to show up to record lines (which is dicey; I know of at least one place that relies on audio entertaiment is currently shuttered for new recordings). Final rendering still has to be done by animation houses (in the States and abroad).  Even before that stage, it could still be affected, depending on the workflow that needs to be done in-house on dedicated equipment.

 

And that doesn't get into capital issues due to money freezing up.

 

Live Action TV might have a decent lead time, but sooner or later, content will dry up there as well.  Animation might able to squeak through, but anything with live action and a decent sized crew could be a lot more uncertain in the short and medium term.

Yeah, TV is messed up in that department too. Chances of This Is Us returning in September? Not very likely. New season of Stranger Things in time for Halloween? Don't bet on that either.

 

It's even messing up shows that were already on. Latest season of The Walking Dead concluded without its last episode which will be saved for later because it was still being made when everything shut down. Empire is also signing off without a proper ending although there's now talk that they might make it later once things start returning to normal.

[RockyMountain]

THe chances of Theaters opening up sometime in summer are becoming more and more bleak. There were 2400 deaths yesterday and looks to be about the same or perhaps even more today. They aren't going to even think about opening places like movie theaters up again until the daily death total goes way down (I'd say as long as we are still getting more than a hundred or so deaths from this virus a day things will continue to stay closed). We are getting to the point to where things may stay closed until 2021. 

[RockyMountain]

Nope there won't be any theaters opening up this summer. Dr. Fauci said today that if the MLB tries to come back this summer it is going to be without spectators. Sports can still go on without people going to the game because people can simply watch from home. Movies have to have people going to the theaters in order to go on (and they won't be releasing big movies on streaming services).

 

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2020-04-15/mlb-anthony-fauci-arizona-bubble

[TwoMisfits]

25 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Nope there won't be any theaters opening up this summer. Dr. Fauci said today that if the MLB tries to come back this summer it is going to be without spectators. Sports can still go on without people going to the game because people can simply watch from home. Movies have to have people going to the theaters in order to go on (and they won't be releasing big movies on streaming services).

 

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2020-04-15/mlb-anthony-fauci-arizona-bubble

MLB stadiums have 15-40K people together at the same time...

Reduced capacity, presold seat small and midsize theaters (12s and under) can have 100-300 people total together at the same time, and they are split in separate places...

 

So, it's not quite the same thing...

 

Now, 30 screen megaplexes in cities - yeah, they might not open or might not open with more than a few screens in use...

 

But the rural 3 screeners with 60 seats per screen (selling only 30 of them) probably have a very good shot this summer...but what they will show will be the question...

Edited April 15, 2020 by TwoMisfits