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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Since Endgame weekend thread is closed, this seems like right place to answer.

 

As per available data I have, TFA previews were $54mn Approx while Friday was $65mn Approx.

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Posted (edited)

Again for same reason.

I used to think that yeah may be HP can do 300 but today I realised it's not even close. Yeah HP 8 had record weekend but it's still 2nd biggest Non-Disney weekend after 9 years.

 

HP8 did $125mn FSS and $43mn Midnight. That FSS number is 69% of The Avengers just an year ahead. Outside Endgame, Infinity War has biggest FSS of $218mn, I think HP 9 will at best be looking at 70% of that, which is roughly $152mn and somewhere around $55mn midnight.

 

So in the end of day HP9, might just be able to post $210-220mn ish domestically, if released today, ofcourse not today as you know COVID, you know what I mean.

Edited by charlie Jatinder

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Soon this'll be the TENET Buzz and Tracking Thread

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Be nice to crunch numbers again. I miss it. And getting computer soon so no more posting from phone!

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Posted (edited)

So this is probably important for any sort of tracking.

 

California is starting to dip its toes into its "Stage 3" of reopening. Let's call it "Stage 2.5" for now.  Why is that important?  This is why:

 

Quote

 

Stage 3: Reopening higher risk workplaces, which require close proximity to other people, including:
 

 

  • Hair salons

  • Nail salons

  • Gyms

  • Movie theaters

  • Sporting events without live audiences

  • In-person religious services (churches and weddings)

 

Most of us suspect/know that there is isn't a great chance of a major film getting a wide release if it can't open in NY or CA.  Here's the catch (and you knew one was coming).  This is being done on a county-by-county basis, and COVID-19 is still pretty widespread in Los Angeles County (relatively speaking that is), which is the Big Kahuna here.

 

The other catch is, these rollouts are being done in parts in some counties. I am unaware of any county that has been given the green light to have a full stage 3, however. At least any major county.

 

Placer County (a county to the northwest of Sacramento) petitioned the governor for a full Stage 3 release, including movie theaters.  Outside of Roseville/Rocklin, not much population though.

 

Other counties might be petitioning soon as well.  But until things quiet down more in LA, not sure if TENET will make its date or not.  The San Francisco Bay Area has been very strong on containing COVID-19, but they also might decide to hold out the longest since they were one of the areas of the state that blazed the trail on issuing health and safety regulations.  The idea being that they want to be a model to the state both on the front end (leading the charge) and waiting until they are very sure it is safe to go deeper in our reopening.  On the other hand, I haven't been paying that close attention to what various leaders in the Bay Area have been saying.  I just suspect that SF Mayor Breed is not going to be one to jump the gun here.

 

---

 

Just consider all of this something of a status update for the state of Cali when it comes to movie theater re-openings, but not a hard and fast one.

Edited by Porthos
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I dont see LA/Bay Area or NY region opening by July mid and so not sure this will open as planned. But if the trend is towards theaters opening soon after that(say early august), then WB may risk in opening as scheduled while markets that open late will have the release later like its a different market. 

 

how is it looking outside US. This needs OS BO as well to make up for big production costs. I dont see Brazil/Russia/India being in good shape but will China open its theaters. it need not be by July but there will be a log jam of releases(domestic) which could take precedence. 

 

More and more its looking like BO will be terrible until we are past phase 2 and that may not happen in 2020. 

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Even just seeing a new Keyser post in this thread feels like a step towards normalcy

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Me coming back to this thread....

Its Been A Long Time Mueller Report GIF

 

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7 hours ago, DAJK said:

Even just seeing a new Keyser post in this thread feels like a step towards normalcy

tenor.gif?itemid=12221156

 

Spoiler

Actually agree, but couldn't pass it up. ;)

 

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7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont see LA/Bay Area or NY region opening by July mid and so not sure this will open as planned. But if the trend is towards theaters opening soon after that(say early august), then WB may risk in opening as scheduled while markets that open late will have the release later like its a different market. 

 

how is it looking outside US. This needs OS BO as well to make up for big production costs. I dont see Brazil/Russia/India being in good shape but will China open its theaters. it need not be by July but there will be a log jam of releases(domestic) which could take precedence. 

 

More and more its looking like BO will be terrible until we are past phase 2 and that may not happen in 2020. 

WB might very well try to put a brave face on this if this post is any indication (from the TENET thread):

 

9 hours ago, antovolk said:

There's an IndieWire Zoom webinar happening - NY/LA apparently only make up to 12-14% of domestic box office according to Paramount’s head of US distribution - but he’s bullish on Tenet still opening on 17th…thinking it might not necessarily move if NY/LA aren’t open...

 

grim did point out in the next post about how the OW would be much higher, but I wonder if having the room practically to themselves might make up for that.  A while back, other posters also pointed out that even with restrictions, if it any given film is playing on more screens, simply because of the lack of competition, maybe that'll make up for lack of locations a little.

 

Not that we should expect any big OWs.  Just maybe not catastrophic ones.  And perhaps, just perhaps, better legs, not only from the lack of competition, but folks taking their sweet time to come back into a theater/seeing if it is safe.

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4 hours ago, Porthos said:

Not that we should expect any big OWs.  Just maybe not catastrophic ones.  And perhaps, just perhaps, better legs, not only from the lack of competition, but folks taking their sweet time to come back into a theater/seeing if it is safe.

 

And yet August and September look pretty crowded, at least with a large number of movies that I'd ordinarily see under normal circumstances. Which seems like it wont leave much room for legs.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/28/2020 at 6:18 AM, kitik said:

 

And yet August and September look pretty crowded, at least with a large number of movies that I'd ordinarily see under normal circumstances. Which seems like it wont leave much room for legs.

At this point I think movies would just be happy to get a decent number of dollars on OW. I don't think you should be taking legs into effect for probably another year or so when people are comfortable out in public again. The days in which you were talking about box office numbers the way you were in December 2019 will be gone for some time (if it ever returns).

Edited by RockyMountain
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So Fandango has rolled out a new interface (at least on desktop) as a result of COVID-19 and... it is gonna take some getting used to.

 

But I noticed something interesting.  Cinemark is re-opening on JUly 3rd locally (for the most part) and it looks like they will have dynamic social distancing when it comes to seats being sold.

 

The good news for us trackers (when/if we ever need to track again) is that Fandango is in fact marking what is a socially distance seat and what is a sold seat.  At first glance I couldn't tell.  But it looks like seats are being marked off limits AFTER a purchase.  At least for some Cinemark chains.

 

Compare this:

 

1a1opPU.png

 

and this:

 

nkCasdJ.png

 

The seats marked with an "x" were sold and the seats marked with a "/" are socially distanced.

 

It is an... interesting solution to just blocking seats willy nilly and I hadn't heard much about this before.  I presume this is gonna be done on all ticketing sites that handle Cinemark theaters and I will be curious to see if this goes to the other chains or not (honestly hadn't been paying attention so I don't know if this was already known.

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BTW, this WILL prove to be a bit of a challenge when it comes to how many seats were actually sold if a show is sold out.  Already see one showing for Back to the Future that is marked as a sellout at an auditorium that probably only has around 50 seats or so in normal circumstances.

 

With a four seats blacked out for every group of tickets sold system (unless it is at the end of a row), one could see how it doesn't take long for a show to not only sellout in a smaller auditorium, but be very difficult to track it unless you happen to see the patterns as they are being sold.

 

Doubt there will be much worth tracking for a while, but it is something to keep in mind should these dynamic blacked out seats stick around for a while, as I presume they will.

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Interesting the optics of "sold out" will be interesting to watch.

 

Also if people put up with sellouts and try again or if they say "ill just wait till near end of run.

 

Which leads to will theatres double the run of movie to accommodate the 50 percent rule.

 

Or do people say "ill wait for streaming"

Be interesting to watch

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
On 6/21/2020 at 7:28 PM, Porthos said:

So Fandango has rolled out a new interface (at least on desktop) as a result of COVID-19 and... it is gonna take some getting used to.

 

But I noticed something interesting.  Cinemark is re-opening on JUly 3rd locally (for the most part) and it looks like they will have dynamic social distancing when it comes to seats being sold.

 

The good news for us trackers (when/if we ever need to track again) is that Fandango is in fact marking what is a socially distance seat and what is a sold seat.  At first glance I couldn't tell.  But it looks like seats are being marked off limits AFTER a purchase.  At least for some Cinemark chains.

 

Compare this:

 

1a1opPU.png

 

and this:

 

nkCasdJ.png

 

The seats marked with an "x" were sold and the seats marked with a "/" are socially distanced.

 

It is an... interesting solution to just blocking seats willy nilly and I hadn't heard much about this before.  I presume this is gonna be done on all ticketing sites that handle Cinemark theaters and I will be curious to see if this goes to the other chains or not (honestly hadn't been paying attention so I don't know if this was already known.

Weird, I’d expect seats being sold to also make the ones directly in front of and behind them unavailable as well.

Edited by The Panda

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My old theatre only has certain seats available at all for purchase. They don't have the online ticketing up yet, but how they're doing it is something like this:

 

xx                                                                                              xx

                                               x x

xx                                                                                              xx

                                               x x

xx                                                                                              xx

                                               x x

xx                                                                                              xx

 

(etc.) with the x's marking seats that are available in each row

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4 hours ago, The Panda said:

Weird, I’d expect seats being sold to also make the ones directly in front of and behind them unavailable as well.

I mooted in another thread that stadium seating is enough of a difference maker in this case. Ar least they probably think so.

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