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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

DecisiveDampGroundbeetle-size_restricted

 

891e6cd96bcb3919c383099722aa540c.gif

 

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

88

3412

3608

196

5.43%

 

====

 

Some notes.

 

Only four theaters that I track are actually open right now (all outside of Sacramento County), and one of them doesn't have tickets up yet for GvK.  However, since it looks all but certain that Sacto is gonna get the green light on Tuesday under revised state guidelines a bunch of Sacramento theaters started selling tickets sometime over the weekend on the down low over on their corporate sites.  So at the moment, I have a total of nine theaters currently being tracked, with more on the way even without Regal.

 

That they have any tickets sold at all at those locations without Fandango is something of a wonder, actually,  Not very many sold, mind.  But more than zero.

 

Needless to say, all of the Regals are still shut down tight, as are a few of the indies/smaller chains. As such, still a fairly incomplete picture, especially since I doubt very many people locally even know they can buy tickets for GvK. 

 

Also had to do some guess work in regards to the 25% cap.  Are theaters rounding or not?  And if so, to nearest whole number?  Counting wheelchair slots?  What about auditoriums that are technically split for bookkeeping/sales purposes when it comes to D-BOX showings but are all in one physical building?  And are some theaters fudging a bit when it comes to the cap.  That sort of thing.  Mind, at the numbers we're talking about here, it's only a difference of maybe two or three seats for any given showing.  But when the average capped showing is 41 seats before hitting a sellout, every seat counts.

 

Is this good? Is this bad?  Hell if I know.  I do know that the last Godzilla movie was extremely frontloaded when it came to pre-sales, but the pandemic is scrambling everything.  Ask me again a few days after folks know locally that their fav theaters will be open.

Edited by Porthos
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11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

891e6cd96bcb3919c383099722aa540c.gif

 

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

88

3412

3608

196

5.43%

 

====

 

Some notes.

 

Only four theaters that I track are actually open right now (all outside of Sacramento County), and one of them doesn't have tickets up yet for GvK.  However, since it looks all but certain that Sacto is gonna get the green light on Tuesday under revised state guidelines a bunch of Sacramento theaters started selling tickets sometime over the weekend on the down low over on their corporate sites.  So at the moment, I have a total of nine theaters currently being tracked, with more on the way even without Regal.

 

That they have any tickets sold at all at those locations without Fandango is something of a wonder, actually,  Not very many sold, mind.  But more than zero.

 

Needless to say, all of the Regals are still shut down tight, as are a few of the indies/smaller chains. As such, still a fairly incomplete picture, especially since I doubt very many people locally even know they can buy tickets for GvK. 

 

Also had to do some guess work in regards to the 25% cap.  Are theaters rounding or not?  And if so, to nearest whole number?  Counting wheelchair slots?  What about auditoriums that are technically split for bookkeeping/sales purposes when it comes to D-BOX showings but are all in one physical building?  And are some theaters fudging a bit when it comes to the cap.  That sort of thing.  Mind, at the numbers we're talking about here, it's only a difference of maybe two or three seats for any given showing.  But when the average capped auditorium is 41 seats before hitting a sellout, every seat counts.

 

Is this good? Is this bad?  Hell if I know.  I do know that the last Godzilla movie was extremely frontloaded when it came to pre-sales, but the pandemic is scrambling everything.  Ask me again a few days after folks know locally that their fav theaters will be open.

Problem is without knowing if they can be reopened, no cinema will commit themselves to promote the film. people ignore the fact that cinema chain help a lot in buzz building for a any blockbuster.

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19 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Problem is without knowing if they can be reopened, no cinema will commit themselves to promote the film. people ignore the fact that cinema chain help a lot in buzz building for a any blockbuster.

Welllll, things are pretty certain here right now in Cali.  The revised guidelines that just came into force thanks to a vaccination milestone being passed might just let the entier state be in the "severe"/red tier (or better) category.

 

*quickly checks*

 

Looks like a couple of stragglers will be on the outside looking in, but the vast majority of the state should be in a red or orange tier come Tuesday.  If I read the changed guidelines right.

 

I mean, I would have agreed with you at least in part, except that no less than six local theaters (five Cinemarks and one Cinema West) are selling tickets to open on March 31st WITHOUT official okay from the state/county.  That tells me they are eager to actually start making money again and are pretty hopeful that this time they won't have the rug pulled out from under them like happened last September when they were briefly open for a couple of weeks before having the door slammed shut on them again.

 

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that they are selling tickets without official clearance, even though it is widely expected.  But as I check the local news, even the venerable Tower Theater (which mainly shows indie flicks) has announced its planned reopening date. So I guess theaters locally think that it's "for real" this time.

 

 

Edited by Porthos
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14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Welllll, things are pretty certain here right now in Cali.  The revised guidelines that just came into force thanks to a vaccination milestone being passed might just let the entier state be in the "severe"/red tier (or better) category.

 

*quickly checks*

 

Looks like a couple of stragglers will be on the outside looking in, but the vast majority of the state should be in a red or orange tier come Tuesday.  If I read the changed guidelines right.

 

I mean, I would have agreed with you at least in part, except that no less than six local theaters (five Cinemarks and one Cinema West) are selling tickets to open on March 31st WITHOUT official okay from the state/county.  That tells me they are eager to actually start making money again and are pretty hopeful that this time they won't have the rug pulled out from under them like happened last September when they were briefly open for a couple of weeks before having the door slammed shut on them again.

 

Frankly, I'm a little surprised that they are selling tickets without official clearance, even though it is widely expected.  But as I check the local news, even the venerable Tower Theater (which mainly shows indie flicks) has announced its planned reopening date. So I guess theaters locally think that it's "for real" this time.

 

 

Any idea if California will reach 4 mil vaccinations target thing to lower the requirements for reopening before GvK releases?

Edited by lorddemaxus
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15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Any idea if California will reach 4 mil vaccinations target thing to lower the requirements for reopening before GvK releases?

Just passed 2m in the last few days, so I doubt it.  But just passing 2m was a major milestone as it shifted the qualifications for one of the major benchmarks for red tier status up by about 40% (from 7 new cases per day per 100k people to 10 new cases per day per 100k people).   Locally, I doubt Sacramento would be able to show GvK were it not for that shift.

 

*sees @WandaLegion about to speak up*

 

Remember, it's 4m vaccinations in parts of California, not the whole state. ;)  The "HPI quartile 1" which is making sure that folks who are traditionally underserved when it comes to medical attention are actually getting vaccines as well.  In other words, making sure it's not a disproportionate number of tech bros and wine snobs getting shots and thus skewing the averages. 

 

I mean, it's possible.  But I think 4m in time for Black Widow presales is a much stronger bet.  But I suspect WandaLegion has been following California's vaccination climb far more closely than I have, so I might defer to his judgement on that.

 

Also don't know that hitting 4m does when it comes to theater attendance caps, either.  If it does anything, that is, besides relax the requirements for hitting a tier.

 

Edited by Porthos
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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

88

3412

3608

196

5.43%

 

BTW, if folks want a pretty useless comparison, KotM Preview Night Numbers at T-17 was

 

KotM Preview Night at T-17

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

80

10687

11157

470

4.21%

 

So GvK is 41.7% of KotM's sales, if one wants to compare Thr Preview to 25% Capped Theaters All Day Wed.  Mind, that's without at least three of the best theaters in the region and a fourth only selling tickets on its corporate site (listed on Fandango, but unable to be purchased).

 

Probably says absolutely nothing at all, frankly, but might be of vague interest once theaters come online over at Fandango.

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Just passed 2m in the last few days, so I doubt it.  But just passing 2m was a major milestone as it shifted the qualifications for one of the major benchmarks for red tier status up by about 40% (from 7 new cases per day per 100k people to 10 new cases per day per 100k people).   Locally, I doubt Sacramento would be able to show GvK were it not for that shift.

 

*sees @WandaLegion about to speak up*

 

Remember, it's 4m vaccinations in parts of California, not the whole state. ;)  The "HPI quartile 1" which is making sure that folks who are traditionally underserved when it comes to medical attention are actually getting vaccines as well.  In other words, making sure it's not a disproportionate number of tech bros and wine snobs getting shots and thus skewing the averages. 

 

I mean, it's possible.  But I think 4m in time for Black Widow presales is a much stronger bet.  But I suspect WandaLegion has been following California's vaccination climb far more closely than I have, so I might defer to his judgement on that.

 

Also don't know that hitting 4m does when it comes to theater attendance caps, either.  If it does anything, that is, besides relax the requirements for hitting a tier.

 

What is this target? I thought California has reached 11.9m of inoculation by 14Mar? And estimated 9.7% of the population already fully vaccinated , that is easily at least 3.8m people

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5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Any idea if California will reach 4 mil vaccinations target thing to lower the requirements for reopening before GvK releases?

 

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

Just passed 2m in the last few days, so I doubt it.  But just passing 2m was a major milestone as it shifted the qualifications for one of the major benchmarks for red tier status up by about 40% (from 7 new cases per day per 100k people to 10 new cases per day per 100k people).   Locally, I doubt Sacramento would be able to show GvK were it not for that shift.

 

*sees @WandaLegion about to speak up*

 

Remember, it's 4m vaccinations in parts of California, not the whole state. ;)  The "HPI quartile 1" which is making sure that folks who are traditionally underserved when it comes to medical attention are actually getting vaccines as well.  In other words, making sure it's not a disproportionate number of tech bros and wine snobs getting shots and thus skewing the averages. 

 

I mean, it's possible.  But I think 4m in time for Black Widow presales is a much stronger bet.  But I suspect WandaLegion has been following California's vaccination climb far more closely than I have, so I might defer to his judgement on that.

 

Also don't know that hitting 4m does when it comes to theater attendance caps, either.  If it does anything, that is, besides relax the requirements for hitting a tier.

 

The equity quartile just hit 2m on Fri/Sat, and has been pacing some 20-30k per day. Even with some modest acceleration (To, say, a 40k avg), the 4m won’t be hit until late April/early May probably — after BW PS open but just in time for the OW it’s looking like.
 

It won’t have any direct effect on movie reopening except making it pretty easy for everything to move to orange (50%) or yellow (100%) tier.    
 

Sacramento county’s metrics look pretty bad, so while I’m optimistic about LA moving to orange before GvK I really doubt Sac will.

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Also to address some of the “surprised at theaters selling before it’s official” stuff — the new tier assignments from the vaccine update were officially announced Friday and went into effect Sun, so it’s all on the up and up. There will just be a 2nd assignment update this week on the usual Tuesday timetable.

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4 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Also to address some of the “surprised at theaters selling before it’s official” stuff — the new tier assignments from the vaccine update were officially announced Friday and went into effect Sun, so it’s all on the up and up. There will just be a 2nd assignment update this week on the usual Tuesday timetable.

Yes, the new tier qualifications went into affect on Sunday, but Sacramento County still hasn't been given official clearance yet from the state.  As I double check local news, everyone is reporting that it is "widely expected", but the official designation shift won't come until Tue.

 

Also as you implied in your last post, Sacto is close enough to the new line that a really bad week might push them over 10 per 1000k.  I doubt it happens as it'd take a really bad week against statewide trends, but random spikes can still happen.  Still, a designation shift by the 30th is almost certain, but I still am raising an eyebrow at folks jumping the official starters gun. 

 

Not a full Spock Eyebrow, mind,  More a half one accompanied with a head nod.  A "Noted" sort of thing, as it were.

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On 3/14/2021 at 10:02 AM, Menor said:

Where can you see how many are sold? When I go to my Cinemark's page, it makes no distinction between blocked and real seats.

If you look at the html source code there is a property called physicalDistanceBuffer. its true for blocked seat and false for booked seats. 

 

Its non-trivial work to get the data. Let me take a look. Not too enthusiastic for this movie as I am not expecting big number with this release strategy. 

 

Edit: ok. This is doing much better than what I thought. MTC2 has lot more shows than MTC1 but that could change as more theaters in NY/CA come online and allow more seats to be sold.  Numbers coming in soon.....

Edited by keysersoze123
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Godzilla vs Kong (T-16)

MTC1 - 12811/217771  197060.00  1095 shows

MTC2 - 32871/313708 527141.61  1748 shows

 

MTC2 numbers are super strong. Most theaters are not even enforcing lots of blocked seats. I guess capacity restriction is only in certain states at this point. 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Look at this show in MTC2. Only 14 seats blocked out of 525 seats !!!! So the show has sold 507 tickets. 

 

https://cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=253&ShowtimeId=480465&CinemarkMovieId=84452&Showtime=2021-03-31T18:40:00

I’m terrified at the thought of sitting in a theatre with that many people lol, but good for the movie and good news for BW.

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45 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-16)

MTC1 - 12811/217771  197060.00  1095 shows

MTC2 - 32871/313708 527141.61  1748 shows

 

MTC2 numbers are super strong. Most theaters are not even enforcing lots of blocked seats. I guess capacity restriction is only in certain states at this point. 

 

 

So same level as WW84 at a similar point in MTC1, but almost double in MTC2. Then again this is comparing a random Wednesday to Christmas Day. Let's see how things go. 

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Woooooo, the battle of the titans has woken keyser from his slumber.   
 

Do you know how much is from California? A lot of theaters there that are currently closed might be 50% for GvK — but I’m not sure how many already have PS up, like we saw in Sacramento.

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Look at this show in MTC2. Only 14 seats blocked out of 525 seats !!!! So the show has sold 507 tickets. 

 

https://cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=253&ShowtimeId=480465&CinemarkMovieId=84452&Showtime=2021-03-31T18:40:00

That’s because you’re only looking at the Dbox section of the showing. There are normal seats too

 

https://cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=253&ShowtimeId=480462&CinemarkMovieId=84452&Showtime=2021-03-31T18:40:00

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Look at this show in MTC2. Only 14 seats blocked out of 525 seats !!!! So the show has sold 507 tickets. 

 

https://cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=253&ShowtimeId=480465&CinemarkMovieId=84452&Showtime=2021-03-31T18:40:00

That's a DBOX theater map though.  Isn't it just showing the non-DBOX seats as "sold" even though they're not?

 

*checks*

 

Yep.  Here's the seat map for the same auditorium but for the non-DBOX showing:

 

https://www.cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=253&ShowtimeId=480462&CinemarkMovieId=84452&Showtime=2021-03-31T18:40:00

 

Might need to re-run/re-work your script for MTC2 to make sure it isn't double counting non-DBOX seats if the seat maps aren't being exclusionary.

 

EDIT:::

 

Hah.  Jinx. @Inceptionzq.  Was taking me a while to figure out which "MTC2 TInseltown and XD" location it was.  Who knew there was more than one MTC2 with that name?  Not me!

Edited by Porthos
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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Look at this show in MTC2. Only 14 seats blocked out of 525 seats !!!! So the show has sold 507 tickets. 

 

https://cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=253&ShowtimeId=480465&CinemarkMovieId=84452&Showtime=2021-03-31T18:40:00

 

Are you sure it isn't an error - if you click to previous and later shows, you can see Cinemark blocking the seats...

 

EDIT - Dang, 3 of us at the same time:)...

 

EDIT 2: Yeah, seeing my Cinemarks, I'd rerun their MTC numbers, b/c mine are not selling like that yet (although there are now 4 private showings sold across my 2 theaters:)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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