The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

EDIT - Dang, 3 of us at the same time:)..

"We are Legion, for we are many."

 

Either that, or BOT Tracking Hive Mind is speaking with the voice of the Borg.

[charlie Jatinder]

So about $1M T-16 days for a Wednesday. Since haven't tracked a medium range film this far out, so no idea what that means.

 

Also don't know if private screenings will be thing like they were for WW84.

 

But I guess $1M T-16 days shall means atleast atleast $4M final, may be $5M. That will point toward $7-10M OD. 

 

From say 7 OD, we can go for 4.5 Thu, 7 Fri, 7 Sat and 5 Sun. 30M 5 days.

From 10, probably 45M.

Edited March 16, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

That’s because you’re only looking at the Dbox section of the showing. There are normal seats too

 

https://cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=253&ShowtimeId=480462&CinemarkMovieId=84452&Showtime=2021-03-31T18:40:00

 

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Are you sure it isn't an error - if you click to previous and later shows, you can see Cinemark blocking the seats...

 

EDIT - Dang, 3 of us at the same time:)...

 

EDIT 2: Yeah, seeing my Cinemarks, I'd rerun their MTC numbers, b/c mine are not selling like that yet (although there are now 4 private showings sold across my 2 theaters:)...

The complication in trying to fix this is while there is a very large error in the seat selection for the DBOX showings (all of the non-DBOX seats being marked as unavailable), there will still be a smaller error for the non-DBOX showings that have DBOX seats, as those will be marked as unavailable, as all three of our nearly simultaneously posted links will show.

 

Prob some way to automate figuring out which is which on theaters with mixed maps via a script, but I don't know how difficult that would be. 😕 

[TwoMisfits]

So, this got me to check my Cinemarks (even though I was only gonna do it every few days til release week).

 

Cinemark 1 - now up to 14 regular seats sold (all regular) - 2 private viewings sold out (may or may not be GVK)

Cinemark 2 - now up to 8 premium seats sold, still 0 regular - 2 private viewings sold out (may or may not be GVK)

(And can I point on the 10 Commandments, on its 1st day, sold 5 seats today - yeah, old movies)

 

Cinemark 1, with 6 showings, has about 540 seat capacity. (I'm totally winging this, but it should be a good wag)

Cinemark 2, with 9 showings, has about 800 seat capacity. (Same)

 

So, in my metro, Cinemark is selling about 2% of its seats so far for GVK...so I'd be leery about the high MTC number b/c my area is not el sucko when it comes to movie releases...

[charlie Jatinder]

If this follow WW84, we may have $6M final pre-sales excluding private screenings. That seems BIG enough. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, this got me to check my Cinemarks (even though I was only gonna do it every few days til release week).

 

Cinemark 1 - now up to 14 regular seats sold (all regular) - 2 private viewings sold out (may or may not be GVK)

Cinemark 2 - now up to 8 premium seats sold, still 0 regular - 2 private viewings sold out (may or may not be GVK)

 

Hmmm.  I hadn't thought about tracking private watch parties.  Didn't even realize that Cinemark was putting those up via showtimes.

 

*checks locals*

 

Ah. It's only the ones that are actually open for biz right this moment.  

 

Problem here is, since it is "up to 20 people" there is no way of knowing how many there actually are for any given showing.

 

Maybe I can track it separately but not give a ticket approximation?  

 

Got five Private Watch Parties marked for the two theaters where they are currently available.

 

I think tracking the PWPs are pretty necessary.  Just wish there was some way to approximate tickets sold.

 

Anyone here have any ideas for a rough average for prior titles?  Even a rough average might not be too bad when all is said and done.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Anyone here have any ideas for a rough average for prior titles?  Even a rough average might not be too bad when all is said and done.

 

Actually, come to think of it, what I could do is get the PWP price for a theater and then divide that by the average ticket price for a theater (or for nationwide) and backchannel that into an equivilent number of seats sold.

 

Kinda sketchy since I don't/can't differentiate kids or senior tickets and I don't bother with differentiating PLF/matinee/early bird pricing (here at least).

 

But for a backwards approximation might not be a bad idea to divide a theaters price for a PWP by whatever the current ATP is and convert that to seats sold.  Maybe as an extra field at the bottom.

 

*thinks*

 

Yessssss.  Unless there is some strenuous objections, I think I will divide the theater's price for a PWP by whatever the current ATP is (something like $9, right?) and turn that into an "equivalent seats sold" as a separate field somewhere in my post.

Edited March 16, 2021 by Porthos

[Eric Duncan]

The Courier Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	13	16	557	2.87%

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Hmmm.  I hadn't thought about tracking private watch parties.  Didn't even realize that Cinemark was putting those up via showtimes.

 

*checks locals*

 

Ah. It's only the ones that are actually open for biz right this moment.  

 

Problem here is, since it is "up to 20 people" there is no way of knowing how many there actually are for any given showing.

 

Maybe I can track it separately but not give a ticket approximation?  

 

Got five Private Watch Parties marked for the two theaters where they are currently available.

 

I think tracking the PWPs are pretty necessary.  Just wish there was some way to approximate tickets sold.

 

Anyone here have any ideas for a rough average for prior titles?  Even a rough average might not be too bad when all is said and done.

PWP are charged a set fee whether they sell 1 or 20 tickets.  I think new releases run from $149-$199 (I think it's $199 for the 1st 2 weeks and then the price drops, but that may not be for every movie - the HBO Max ones might start at the lower price)...the problem is knowing what movie got booked for the party.  Like, with 5 seats sold for the 10 Commandments at the 1 Cinemark showing it, theoretically, those 2 watch parties could be for that movie...but I doubt it:)...

[Eric Duncan]

On 3/14/2021 at 10:45 PM, Eric #TeamKong said:

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	20	535	1315	40.68%

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	8	21	733	1371	53.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 56

Total Sellouts Added Today: 4

Total Seats Sold Today: 198

[Porthos]

Let's see.  Cinemark locally is charging $149 a pop for PWPs for GvK.  Looks to be the same for all times as the 11am showing was the same price as an 8pm showing, and the same for both locations.

 

Haven't seen any discounted pricing for GvK, outside of matinee and early bird stuff, so whatever the ATP was last year should still be pretty valid.  $149/9 = 16.5555.  $149/9.16 (the 2019 figure) = 16.26.

 

Looks to me that counting a Private Watch Party as the equivalent of 16 seats sold sounds about right.  Especially since there is a mix of early bird and matinee showings. Not sure about how many kids.  Either 16 or 17 could be argued for, maybe even 15.  But I think as a rough estimate Private Watch Party ≈ 16 seats works for me.  

 

Will make it a separate track though, just so I don't mix my data.

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

PWP are charged a set fee whether they sell 1 or 20 tickets.  I think new releases run from $149-$199 (I think it's $199 for the 1st 2 weeks and then the price drops, but that may not be for every movie - the HBO Max ones might start at the lower price)...the problem is knowing what movie got booked for the party.  Like, with 5 seats sold for the 10 Commandments at the 1 Cinemark showing it, theoretically, those 2 watch parties could be for that movie...but I doubt it:)...

Yes, there is that consideration, and it's a very good one.  Doubt there will be many, say Tom and Jerry ones either at this stage.

 

In fact, that's such a good consideration that I'm tempted to just forget about tracking PWP altogether.  Don't mix potentially bad data with data you know is good, and all that.

 

Still, the siren song to track it is very strong. 

 

Prob will track it sep with a note that there is a potential for it not being accurate due to not knowing for sure what the PWP actually is.  But potentially flawed data might be better than none in this case.

[keysersoze123]

Ok guys. I dont know why one auditorium has both dbox and non dbox seats and that too listing it together. I can look and check how it can be rationalized. IF not then ignore MTC2 numbers for now. I have not seen this as an issue for MTC1. it only shows seats for 1 screen and tickets data. 

 

@Menor Can you check for MTC2. May be even as a sample data. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ok guys. I dont know why one auditorium has both dbox and non dbox seats and that too listing it together. I can look and check how it can be rationalized. IF not then ignore MTC2 numbers for now. I have not seen this as an issue for MTC1. it only shows seats for 1 screen and tickets data. 

 

@Menor Can you check for MTC2. May be even as a sample data. 

I checked and am getting the same issue. Happens on lots of DBOX showings. Anyway I will have to rewrite my code since Cinemark changed their website up so no big deal to revise.

Edited March 16, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

@keysersoze123 I can confirm that Sacto is doing it as well.  Though, oddly enough, the DBOX screening locally is set to a different color scheme.

 

DBOX showing:  https://www.cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=417&ShowtimeId=402073&CinemarkMovieId=84452&Showtime=2021-03-31T13:45:00

 

Non DBOX showing: https://www.cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=417&ShowtimeId=402070&CinemarkMovieId=84452&Showtime=2021-03-31T13:45:00

 

So at least for one of my theaters, it differentiates just what a DBOX seat is, but only on the showing for the DBOX (unless it is buried in the code somewhere).

[Porthos]

On 3/14/2021 at 10:58 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	88	3412	3608	196	5.43%

 

 

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	88	3280	3608	328	9.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

132

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	5
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	0
Adjusted Seats Approximation	80

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

 

========

 

NOTE:

 

Adjusted Seats Approximation is a 'best guess estimate' at the number of seats that a Private Watch Party (PWP in the rest of this post) would be equivalent to in ticket sales. 

 

After some thought, I figured it would be at least a little interesting to keep track of how many PWP are being reserved locally, as the vast majority of them, if not all of them, should be for GvK.  And once I decided to keep track of PWPs locally, figuring out how many seats that would be in ticket sales was the next logical step, if only as an approximation.

 

In the case of Cinemark, I am approximating 16 seats sold for every PWP [$149 divided by an approximate national average ticket price of $9.25 = 16, rounded down]. 

 

In the case of Cinema West, I am approximating 14 seats sold for every PWP [$130/$9.25 = 14, rounded down]. 

 

However, since theaters are not reporting just what is being seen at a PWP, take this approximation with some amount of skepticism as it is possible, if not likely at this stage, that other films are being reserved for PWPs.  As such, I reserve the right to stop tracking these PWPs if I feel it is contaminating the data too much.  I very probably will not add them into a final total at any point of my track, unless I see a compelling need to do so.

 

Edited March 16, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Pretty decent day in Sacto, I think? Relatively speaking, of course. Nearly doubled ticket sales, with another showing about to hit a cap.  WoM might be filtering out in the case of Century Arden, as there were a small amount of sales there, though obviously nothing breath taking.

 

Gonna hold off on a comp for KotM for T-16, unless peeps ask for it, as I'm not sure of the utility of it.  Then again, I'm not sure of the utility of this track either, so fair's fair.  

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

ignore MTC2 numbers for now

Fair enough. So around 85% higher than WW84 in MTC1 in 17% more shows.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Fair enough. So around 85% higher than WW84 in MTC1 in 17% more shows.

Closer to 15% higher in MTC1. But then again, still two more days of sales to go. So maybe it will be more like 20-25% higher. I guess we don't know the exact OD for WW, but if it had a 16.7 million 3-day then perhaps something like 6.5 million OD? 7-10 million OD seems like a good range for this one then. 

Edited March 16, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

On 12/12/2020 at 3:20 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Wonder Woman 1984 12/25

MTC1 - 11358/195428 109983.00 936  shows

MTC2 -  17829/307888 185655.07  1960 shows

 

Numbers are really good. Multiple sellouts at AMC Disney (Orlando) where its sell out at 1/3rd tickets sold. 

 

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-16)

MTC1 - 12811/217771  197060.00  1095 shows

MTC2 - 32871/313708 527141.61  1748 shows

 

MTC2 numbers are super strong. Most theaters are not even enforcing lots of blocked seats. I guess capacity restriction is only in certain states at this point. 

 

 

I was looking at gross. Didn't check admits.