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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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What are we thinking for IM? Easter Wed opener is pretty unusual, and this will likely be on the frontloaded side for fandom+MAX reasons. 
 

I suppose using a 10 OD I would see perhaps 10-6-9-10-7, so a 4-4.5ish IM, but pretty rough.

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2 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

What are we thinking for IM? Easter Wed opener is pretty unusual, and this will likely be on the frontloaded side for fandom+MAX reasons. 
 

I suppose using a 10 OD I would see perhaps 10-6-9-10-7, so a 4-4.5ish IM, but pretty rough.

If OD is lower then that implies less fan heavy appeal, maybe 7-5-8-9-6? 5x there

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12 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

What are we thinking for IM? Easter Wed opener is pretty unusual, and this will likely be on the frontloaded side for fandom+MAX reasons. 
 

I suppose using a 10 OD I would see perhaps 10-6-9-10-7, so a 4-4.5ish IM, but pretty rough.

Possible, though even with the factors mentioned I'm not sure about Wed > Fri and Wed = Sat. Even with various spring breaks, it's not like this is a summer weekday. But then again, weekday effects could be different when you have a much lower casual moviegoing audience. 

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16 minutes ago, Menor said:

Possible, though even with the factors mentioned I'm not sure about Wed > Fri and Wed = Sat. Even with various spring breaks, it's not like this is a summer weekday. But then again, weekday effects could be different when you have a much lower casual moviegoing audience. 

Yeah, I based it off a mix of Breakthrough/RPO/Heaven is For Real, Fri Easter openers, Wed-Sun holdovers on Easter, and some Summer/Winter Tues/Wed openers. Kind of mentally cancelling out MAX and school, but their are a lot of different ways it could play out of course, and reception will also play into it. Anywhere from 4-6 or something could happen without really blowing me away.

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Had to be NYC & CA making difference. But yeah huge difference.

Yeah I missed that factor. With that included, I think maybe we can do even better than $10 million. But that will need robust growth over the next two weeks, which we already saw with KOTM is not guaranteed for this franchise. 

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Had to be NYC & CA making difference. But yeah huge difference.

Yes. Lincoln Square Dolby is $27 while Empire 25 is $24. Imax is similar and I see all imax shows for Lincoln Square for OD are sold out. Auditorium capacity is listed as 40% or lower. But reopen rules is just 25% or max of 50 tickets per show. So there is a disconnect. I wonder if NYC will further ease their rules as new cases come down. 

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Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 217 1434 15.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 118 1676 7.04%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
547   N/A 10459 5.23% 8 52
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16 hours ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 8 21 733 1371 53.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 56

Total Sellouts Added Today: 4

Total Seats Sold Today: 198

Do you track any Cinemark showings with Dbox? Asking to check if you have run into that issue, mainly because the 53% sold seems very high. 

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Godzilla vs Kong  (T - 15)

MTC1 - 15199/229208 233749.00 1139 shows

MTC2 -  17853/274573 207725.79 1763 shows

 

I think I have the data for MTC2 fixed. Counting only DBOX seats for any shows that is showing both. I manually verified few shows to be sure. 

 

 Top 5 shows at MTC1

 

Top 5 shows at MTC2

 

 

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Lincoln Square Imax is sold out with just 50 tickets(full capacity is 480 seats) :-( I hope the capacity increases by the time black widow opens. That will make a huge difference to OW as NY/CA theaters have big screens and high ticket prices. At current capacity I cannot see a movie opening to 50 million 3 day. Probably even 30 million would be tough. Plus they wont run too many shows in parallel to avoid overcrowding the theater lobby. So we will have to wait until this winter to get big movies hoping COVID numbers are tiny at that point. 

Edited by keysersoze123
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18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong  (T - 15)

MTC1 - 15199/229208 233749.00 1139 shows

MTC2 -  17853/274573 207725.79 1763 shows

 

I think I have the data for MTC2 fixed. Counting only DBOX seats for any shows that is showing both. I manually verified few shows to be sure. 

 

 Top 5 shows at MTC1

 

Top 5 shows at MTC2

 

 

So now about even with WW84 in admits at MTC2 (of course with one further day to properly compare) and 15% ahead in gross. At MTC1 33% ahead in admits at a similar point and more than double the gross (!). I think $10 million OD is certainly in sight at this point as Cali will probably start really pushing it up this week. 

 

MTC1 also seems like quite a fast sales pace as it was only about 12300 yesterday, did you make any changes in the methodology there?

Edited by Menor
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1 minute ago, Menor said:

So now about even with WW84 in admits at MTC2 (of course with one further day to properly compare) and 15% ahead in gross. At MTC1 33% ahead in admits at a similar point and more than double the gross (!). I think $10 million OD is certainly in sight at this point as Cali will probably start really pushing it up this week. 

10 million from these numbers look tough to me. But we have another couple of weeks to go. With NY/CA opening up share of MTC1+MTC2 should be around 40%. So would need 4 million sales in these 2 chains. That needs 10x sales from today. Looks tough to me with capacity constraints as major market shows are sellouts or close to it with small number of ticket sales(like my comment above about Lincoln Square). 

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6 minutes ago, Menor said:

MTC1 also seems like quite a fast sales pace as it was only about 12300 yesterday, did you make any changes in the methodology there?

MTC1 data is good. I confirmed manually and also compared with numbers posted by @Inceptionzq from his theaters. There were few more shows added compared to yesterday and more tickets sold. Few thousand ticket sales is normal. 

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8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

10 million from these numbers look tough to me. But we have another couple of weeks to go. With NY/CA opening up share of MTC1+MTC2 should be around 40%. So would need 4 million sales in these 2 chains. That needs 10x sales from today. Looks tough to me with capacity constraints as major market shows are sellouts or close to it with small number of ticket sales(like my comment above about Lincoln Square). 

There are also the private watch parties to consider. Like these numbers from WW84 ended up translating into an OD of 6+ million, probably more like 7-8. This one seems to be well outpacing WW84 (primarily due to NY+CA reopening) so 10 million doesn't sound too implausible to me. Let's see how it paces through the next two weeks. 

On 12/26/2020 at 12:02 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Not possible as its very PS heavy with limited walkups possible.

 

Wonder Woman 1984 12/25

MTC1 - 109178/421216 868285.00 2269 shows

MTC2 - 104708/364867 1067404.94 2440 shows

Edited by Menor
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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

10 million from these numbers look tough to me. But we have another couple of weeks to go. With NY/CA opening up share of MTC1+MTC2 should be around 40%. So would need 4 million sales in these 2 chains. That needs 10x sales from today. Looks tough to me with capacity constraints as major market shows are sellouts or close to it with small number of ticket sales(like my comment above about Lincoln Square). 

Many major markets were closed for WW84 but it benefited from private showings. Wonder whether that will be the case for GvK too. If it is, then maybe it can do 10 million opening day. No doubt these are tough conditions but I am hoping that this movie does really well. 

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55 minutes ago, Menor said:

Do you track any Cinemark showings with Dbox? Asking to check if you have run into that issue, mainly because the 53% sold seems very high. 

I only track one Cinemark theater, it doesn't have Dbox, and it's closed at the moment.

 

As for the 53%, the reason for it is because there are very few showtimes. A majority of theaters only have one, maybe two showtimes on opening day at the moment. Weekday showtimes have slashed dramatically across the board, with most movies only having one, maybe two showtimes on a weekday if they're lucky. And with high demand, limited showtimes, and capacity limits...yeah, it's easy for it to reach 53%. When we get more showtimes in the next few days, this percentage will fall considerably.

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5 minutes ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

I only track one Cinemark theater, it doesn't have Dbox, and it's closed at the moment.

 

As for the 53%, the reason for it is because there are very few showtimes. A majority of theaters only have one, maybe two showtimes on opening day at the moment. Weekday showtimes have slashed dramatically across the board, with most movies only having one, maybe two showtimes on a weekday if they're lucky. And with high demand, limited showtimes, and capacity limits...yeah, it's easy for it to reach 53%. When we get more showtimes in the next few days, this percentage will fall considerably.

That explains the difference I was wondering about (that my 2 theaters almost matched all of Philly showings:)...thanks!

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Re: capacity for GvK, I did a deeper dive in the covid theater thread but basically Los Angeles and the SF Bay Area should move from 25% capacity (100 max) to 50% capacity (200 max) with GvK OD as the very first day of the new restrictions.    
 

NYC is a black box but since Cuomo hasn’t announced anything yet it might still be at the current levels. 

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