The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/16/2021 at 1:21 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

217

1434

15.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

118

1676

7.04%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
547	N/A	10459	5.23%	8	52

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

234

1434

16.32%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

135

1676

8.05%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
605	58	10459	5.78%	8	52

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

234

1434

16.32%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

135

1676

8.05%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
605	58	10459	5.78%	8	52

Got a feel for how things are locally in your neck of the woods?  Even on a gut level?

[keysersoze123]

On 3/16/2021 at 1:00 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong  (T - 15)

MTC1 - 15199/229208 233749.00 1139 shows

MTC2 -  17853/274573 207725.79 1763 shows

Godzilla vs Kong (T - 14)

MTC1 - 17430/242521 266115.00 1200 shows +2231

MTC2 - 20253/275503 235961.50 1769 shows  +2400

 

Solid increase at both the MTCs. It has sold out all imax at Empire/Lincoln in NYC. One Dolby also sold out at Empire. I expect all the shows there to sellout by release date. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I am working on getting data for how many private shows are sold out at MTC2. I'm seeing a solid amount of private show sales even past OD, solid sales on Thurs, Fri, Sat with a dropoff on Sun. Will have the full data in a couple of days, need to work out some kinks. 

Edited March 17, 2021 by Menor

[Inceptionzq]

40 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Got a feel for how things are locally in your neck of the woods?  Even on a gut level?

I’ve been kinda comparing GvK to previous 4PM previews since the majority of tickets sold so far are 4PM or later, and it’s looking really good. The capacity should be 50% in all my theaters, so there are plenty of seats to go around. But there are too many factors for me to get optimistic about it.  
 

With how well it’s doing compared to previous 4PM previews, and with most(if not all?) ticket sales being online, the walkups will be much worse. Probably not a surprise considering we saw that with WW84. Plus we’ll see how much it ramps up when the movie gets closer and closer. There are no other big movies to take attention away from GvK between now and release, and less uncertainty surrounding COVID, so I don’t think it’ll ramp up as much. Just the fact that the numbers already look this good 2 weeks out makes me wary of a huge ramp-up as we get closer. And of course, the HBO Max factor.

 

Honestly, with just 2 days of data, it’s hard to be optimistic or pessimistic. The easy answer is probably the right answer for now: we’ll see as we get closer. I have data from Far From Home for a weekday opener that I want to use as a ROUGH comparison, but I only have 3 days of numbers for that.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

I’ve been kinda comparing GvK to previous 4PM previews since the majority of tickets sold so far are 4PM or later, and it’s looking really good. The capacity should be 50% in all my theaters, so there are plenty of seats to go around. But there are too many factors for me to get optimistic about it.  
 

With how well it’s doing compared to previous 4PM previews, and with most(if not all?) ticket sales being online, the walkups will be much worse. Probably not a surprise considering we saw that with WW84. Plus we’ll see how much it ramps up when the movie gets closer and closer. There are no other big movies to take attention away from GvK between now and release, and less uncertainty surrounding COVID, so I don’t think it’ll ramp up as much. Just the fact that the numbers already look this good 2 weeks out makes me wary of a huge ramp-up as we get closer. And of course, the HBO Max factor.

 

Honestly, with just 2 days of data, it’s hard to be optimistic or pessimistic. The easy answer is probably the right answer for now: we’ll see as we get closer. I have data from Far From Home for a weekday opener that I want to use as a ROUGH comparison, but I only have 3 days of numbers for that.

Yeah, that is something that's been on the back of my mind the last couple of days.  That and day-of sales which is I suppose the same thing all things considered. 

 

Locally, with a 25% cap, I suspect walkups are gonna get hit even harder, unless there is a much larger expansion of showings.  Which there could be!  But 25% cap is still brutal no matter how its cut.

[Legion Again]

Just fwiw, holdovers on that weekend will probably be like:  

Nobody ??? (2nd weekend)

Raya 3M

T&J 2M
CW 1M

nothing else worth mentioning    
 

And that might even be a little optimistic. If PS are running up against capacity it will probably just get allotted more and more screenings, Endgame style.

[Inceptionzq]

12 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Just fwiw, holdovers on that weekend will probably be like:  

Nobody ??? (2nd weekend)

Raya 3M

T&J 2M
CW 1M

nothing else worth mentioning    
 

And that might even be a little optimistic. If PS are running up against capacity it will probably just get allotted more and more screenings, Endgame style.

Depends how that Thursday-Sunday are looking by then. Those days are pretty empty in Denver right now, and unless those also get close to capacity by Wednesday, I don’t think they’d add a significant amount of new screenings. You’d also need to take into account how many people could be in the lobby at once, cleanings between showings, all that jazz.

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Depends how that Thursday-Sunday are looking by then

For sure, but if Wednesday is running into capacity then Th-Sun is where that PS demand will go. 
 

12 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

You’d also need to take into account how many people could be in the lobby at once, cleanings between showings, all that jazz.

AFAIK there are no legal limits related to this, just per screening ones. So I doubt it will constrain theater behavior in practice.   
 

Again, to be clear, this is not a prediction that demand necessarily will be there to prompt these sorts of moves in the first place. I’m just observing that if demand materializes, exhibitioners will have some powerful tools available to accommodate it. So  I don’t expect capacity limits per se to be a huge constraining factor except perhaps in New York, where if they’re still 25% they could conceivable allocate like 23/25 screens to GvK and still sellout.    
 

Imo the bigger impact of capacity limits is the implicit signal about the level of safety (or lack thereof) that it sends to potential customers, affecting demand directly rather than just constraining supply.

Edited March 17, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

I am working on getting data for how many private shows are sold out at MTC2. I'm seeing a solid amount of private show sales even past OD, solid sales on Thurs, Fri, Sat with a dropoff on Sun. Will have the full data in a couple of days, need to work out some kinks. 

Still not quite sure about the data but I have for Wednesday 1685 total private shows at MTC2 with 679 being sold. My overall show count is a bit higher than what Keyser has at 1932 vs 1746, but I haven't yet corrected the dbox double show issue so that may be why. Shouldn't affect the private show count either way. Will edit this post when I get the data for Th-Fri-Sat-Sun. Not sure this will make a big difference to overall BO, although it apparently did for Wonder Woman so who knows. 

 

Wednesday: 679 sold out of 1685 total 

Thursday: 307 sold out of 1714 total

Friday:  734 sold out of 2637 total

Saturday: 1404 sold out of 2968 total

Sunday:  369 sold out of 2744 total. 

 

One thing with the weekend numbers is that more of these may be for other films as some theaters are consistently selling out a large portion of their weekend private screenings already. @keysersoze123 when you have time could you check the normal PS at the MTCs for April 2 and April 3? 

Edited March 17, 2021 by Menor

[Eric Duncan]

On 3/16/2021 at 11:28 PM, Eric #TeamKong said:

The Courier Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	21	102	923	11.05%

 

Total Showings Added: 8

Total Seats Added: 366

Total Sellouts Added: 2

Total Seats Sold: 86

The Courier Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	22	121	1081	11.19%

 

Total Showings Added: 1

Total Seats Added: 158

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

[Eric Duncan]

On 3/16/2021 at 11:31 PM, Eric #TeamKong said:

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	10	22	833	1427	58.37%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 56

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Seats Sold Today: 100

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	22	892	1427	62.51%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T - 14)

MTC1 - 17430/242521 266115.00 1200 shows +2231

MTC2 - 20253/275503 235961.50 1769 shows  +2400

 

Solid increase at both the MTCs. It has sold out all imax at Empire/Lincoln in NYC. One Dolby also sold out at Empire. I expect all the shows there to sellout by release date. 

So about 7.2% in MTC 1 and 7.35% in MTC 2.

 

At same time WW84 was 5.8% in MTC 1 and MTC 2. That's about 25% more, with much much better ATP and more theaters, $10M seems like a certainty.

Edited March 18, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 3/16/2021 at 10:41 PM, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	92	3310	3772	462	12.25%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	164
Total Seats Sold Today	134

 

====

 

T-15 Comp (absolutely lol [at the moment at least] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	82.5		39	580		0/87	11056/11616	4.82%		5.20m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	5
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	0
Adjusted Seats Approximation	80

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	92	3093	3772	679	18.00%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	217

 

====

 

T-14 Comp (absolutely lol [at the moment at least] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	112.05		46	606		0/87	11010/11616	5.22%		7.06m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	8
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	1
Adjusted Seats Approximation	142

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

[Porthos]

Four more PWP got sold today (three at a Cinemark location and one at a Cinema West). 

 

More to the point, strongest day of sales across the region so far.  Not hard since this is the first full day after the local announcement of theaters reopening for the vast majority of the theaters I track.

 

Still wonder about day-of sales, as well as having enough showtimes to soak up overflow from the 25% cap.  But... "So far, so good," would be how I would put it.  

 

Since I have literally zero pandemic movies to comp against (Sacto wasn't open on TENET's OW and then got shut down soon after) kinda flying blind here.  But... Encouraged?  Not falling flat on its face at least.  That it's already passed the T-comp for Thr Night Previews for KoTM is a good sign.  A necessary sign, probably, if the worries about day-of are right.  Still, it's ahead of KotM at this point in time, and that was one of the benchmarks I wanted to see cleared.

 

Now we see if the momentum continues or not.

[charlie Jatinder]

@Porthos as I understand, its 821 on 101 showings vs 606 of on 87 of KOTM. About 35% more. Pretty nice.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/14/2019 at 7:10 PM, Deep Wang said:

KOTM - 600k

17 days out numbers. Granted this is for full weekend, GvK is killing it. 

[Porthos]

57 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos as I understand, its 821 on 101 showings vs 606 of on 87 of KOTM. About 35% more. Pretty nice.

If you count all of the Private Watch Parties as going to GvK (which is a pretty safe bet right now), then yes.  I'm leery enough of not having hard data on PWPs that I'm not putting it in the official comp boxes, but more or less?  Yep.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

If you count all of the Private Watch Parties as going to GvK (which is a pretty safe bet right now), then yes.  I'm leery enough of not having hard data on PWPs that I'm not putting it in the official comp boxes, but more or less?  Yep.

I think for Wednesday PWPs it should be fine. Even with theaters that are preselling a lot of PWPs, the weekdays tend to be fairly dead, so it's likely not holdovers driving those numbers. 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

I think for Wednesday PWPs it should be fine. Even with theaters that are preselling a lot of PWPs, the weekdays tend to be fairly dead, so it's likely not holdovers driving those numbers. 

Slight problem I have is that this is the lead in to Easter Weekend and I can't discount religious themed group purchases, which have been known to happen even before the pandemic.

 

While most of the films available locally aren't religious themed, The Passion of the Christ IS available as a PWP (at a cheaper tier to boot).

 

Is it likely that any given PWP on Wed is a TPotC one?  Probably not.  In fact, very very likely not given that it's more likely for Easter-themed group purchases to be later in the week.  I just don't like playing odds when I am trying to rely on hard data.  If I want to be overly dramatic about it, I suppose it "offends" me on some basic level that I'm having a hard time getting over.

 

Also the question of precedence.  PWPs will almost certainly be in play for Black Widow.  But how do I handle PWPs for BW where there might be increased odds of a non-BW PWP purchase?

 

I suppose I do it by compromising and giving the PWP as a separate data field that should be fairly easy to integrate into one's calculations, if one wishes.