The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I just don't like playing odds when I am trying to rely on hard data.  If I want to be overly dramatic about it, I suppose it "offends" me on some basic level that I'm having a hard time getting over

Allow me to rephrase this in the language that MCUstans might understand more:

 

 

That pretty much captures my feelings on the matter.  

[Legion Again]

It’s not a perfect solution no matter what you do, but the without PWPs picture is probably going to be more off than the with 100% of PWPs picture. Separate data that people can do as they will with certainly a clean approach.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

234

1434

16.32%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

135

1676

8.05%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
605	58	10459	5.78%	8	52

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

260

1434

18.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

141

1676

8.41%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
686	81	10459	6.56%	8	52

 

$150 PWPs: 11

$200 PWPs: 2

$250 PWPs: 2

$300 PWPs: 2

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

$300 PWPs

Damn, son

[keysersoze123]

On 3/17/2021 at 2:10 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T - 14)

MTC1 - 17430/242521 266115.00 1200 shows +2231

MTC2 - 20253/275503 235961.50 1769 shows  +2400

Godzilla vs Kong (T-13)

MTC1 - 20194/248466 305707.00 1229 shows +2764

MTC2 - 23245/278745 270578.45  1790 shows +2992

 

Another solid day. We have to wait until release week to see bigger moves. 

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

The Courier Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	22	121	1081	11.19%

 

Total Showings Added: 1

Total Seats Added: 158

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

The Courier Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	27	211	1320	15.98%

 

Total Showings Added: 5

Total Seats Added: 239

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 90

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-13)

MTC1 - 20194/248466 305707.00 1229 shows +2764

MTC2 - 23245/278745 270578.45  1790 shows +2992

 

Another solid day. We have to wait until release week to see bigger moves. 

 

 

Is it possible to access number of locs? that will help in getting truer picture of coverage.

 

That said, using normal ratio adjusted for the current situation, $1M OD pre-sales so far.

Edited March 19, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Duncan]

On 3/17/2021 at 11:40 PM, Eric #TeamKong said:

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	22	892	1427	62.51%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	12	23	965	1461	66.05%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 34

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is it possible to access number of locs system scrapped? that will help in getting truer picture of coverage.

 

That said, using normal ratio adjusted for the current situation, $1M OD pre-sales so far.

Are you talking about how many theaters?

MTC1 - 242 and MTC2 -243. 

 

This is just from data I have for theaters with reserved seating. If theaters dont have reserved seats(not sure if that will work with limited seating) then my data wont have them. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you talking about how many theaters?

MTC1 - 242 and MTC2 -243. 

 

This is just from data I have for theaters with reserved seating. If theaters dont have reserved seats(not sure if that will work with limited seating) then my data wont have them. 

Is MTC 1 normally that range, since almost 90% plus MTC 1 is open per some reports. 242 is less than half of that.

[keysersoze123]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is MTC 1 normally that range, since almost 90% plus MTC 1 is open per some reports. 242 is less than half of that.

Tenet I tracked only 195 theaters for OD. WW2 205 for OD. Frozen 2 I had tracked 343 for OD and last star wars I had tracked 380 theaters for OD. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	92	3093	3772	679	18.00%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	217

 

====

 

T-14 Comp (absolutely lol [at the moment at least] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	112.05		46	606		0/87	11010/11616	5.22%		7.06m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	8
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	1
Adjusted Seats Approximation	142

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	99	3171	3976	805	20.25%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	204
Total Seats Sold Today	126

 

====

 

T-13 Comp (absolutely lol [at the moment at least] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	120.69		61	667		0/90	11465/12132	5.50%		7.60m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	13
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	2
Adjusted Seats Approximation	236

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

 

===

 

About 90 fewer confirmed tickets sold than yesterday, but 6 more Private Watch Parties added to the probable overall total.  Still distancing itself from KotM's 6.3m opening night.

[Legion Again]

It’s paywalled, but I think this is our first tracking from the trades since Onward?  23.7 3-day
 

https://variety.com/vip/godzilla-vs-kong-poised-to-be-pandemics-best-performer-yet-at-u-s-box-office-1234934248/  
 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

It’s paywalled, but I think this is our first tracking from the trades since Onward?  23.7 3-day
 

https://variety.com/vip/godzilla-vs-kong-poised-to-be-pandemics-best-performer-yet-at-u-s-box-office-1234934248/  
 

 

I guess that would be somewhere in the range of ~35-37 5-day. Seems plausible, though definitely on the low end of the range I have. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

2 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

It’s paywalled, but I think this is our first tracking from the trades since Onward?  23.7 3-day
 

https://variety.com/vip/godzilla-vs-kong-poised-to-be-pandemics-best-performer-yet-at-u-s-box-office-1234934248/  
 

 

Can someone past the text here? I can't read it.

[Inceptionzq]

52 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Can someone past the text here? I can't read it.

Don’t be surprised if “Godzilla vs. Kong” is remembered as the movie that brought the U.S. box office roaring back.

Scheduled to release March 31, Warner Bros.’s monster-mashup sequel is poised to deliver what could be a record high for ticket sales during the pandemic era. Very positive early indications are coming from significant pre-release audience interest seen among those willing to brave theaters, according to data provided exclusively to VIP by entertainment market research and analytics firm Guts + Data.
 

Guts + Data is projecting a three-day weekend total of $23.7 million for “Godzilla,” which would surpass the most a movie has made on any opening weekend at the domestic box office since Warner Bros. released sci-fi actioner “Tenet” back on the Labor Day weekend in 2020. But surpassing “Tenet” would be all the more impressive considering that release was exclusive to theaters, while “Godzilla” will see some of its audience opt for the simultaneous streaming debut on HBO Max.
 

Guts + Data’s “Godzilla vs. Kong” projection is informed partly by the firm’s weekly survey data measuring consumer interest gauged after the film’s trailer came out. “As compared to the hundreds of titles tested and already released in the [preceding 12 months], ‘Godzilla vs. Kong’ is the highest scoring,” says Greg Durkin, founder and CEO of Guts + Data (which does not count Warner Bros. among its studio clients).

 

In addition to ranking higher in post-trailer interest than other theatrical titles leading in opening domestic gross did, Durkin says the high interest seen among theatergoers for “Godzilla” is above the leading rates of interest seen for PVOD and SVOD-only titles, which were “Mulan” and “Coming 2 America,” respectively.

 

Beyond recorded interest, timing and competition are also playing big roles here.

Guts + Data’s projection for “Godzilla vs. Kong” is predicated on there being no sudden negative change in the state of the U.S. under COVID-19 conditions. After a horrific surge saw coronavirus in the U.S. reach a global peak of 300,000 daily cases, infections have gone down while a third vaccinegained FDA approval. Naturally, apprehension to visit cinemas is continuing to ease among cinephiles, according to Guts + Data survey data.

 

Amid the domestic box office’s biggest markets reopening in recent weeks and tried-and-true tentpoles still on deck for May, film exhibition is potentially eyeing a substantial uptick in revenue after a year under the shadow of COVID-19. Many films that hit theaters in the first quarter of 2021 managed to make around a third of what Guts + Data projects their gross would have been in a pre-COVID climate.
 

That’s in stark contrast to “Wonder Woman 1984,” which notched the second highest opening of the pandemic but just 17% of its 2017 predecessor’s opening box-office haul, due primarily to COVID spikes and the film only being played in select theaters as exhibitors were still adjusting to the shock of the HBO Max pivot at Warner Bros.

 

Furthermore, Guts + Data’s surveyed awareness levels of “Godzilla” show the release is on track to follow “Tom and Jerry,” the most recent Warner Bros. film to hit theaters and HBO Max at the same time.

“Some 74% of entertainment consumers are aware of [‘Godzilla vs. Kong’] two weeks before release, where the post-pandemic theatrical average is 33% at that point in time,” says Durkin. Per Guts + Data, “Tom and Jerry” was showing 85% awareness among those surveyed in the week leading up to its Feb. 26 release.

 

Based on the classic animated characters, “Tom and Jerry” also had the competitive advantage of releasing a week ahead of Disney’s animated and family-aimed “Raya and the Last Dragon,” grossing substantially more than “Raya” did despite the Warner Bros. film being available to stream on HBO Max with no added fee, unlike “Raya.”

 

With its films facing no real competition from other major studios, Warner Bros. has been leading the domestic box office, and “Godzilla” is set to stick with that pattern, as the only wide releases surrounding it are Universal’s “Nobody” (March 26) and Sony’s “The Unholy” (April 2 via Screen Gems), both of which are low-risk R-rated genre pics, versus a big-budget, PG-13 battle between well-known legendary movie monsters. With studios continuing to delay films a year into the pandemic, such a tentpole hitting theaters has been a rare phenomenon.

 

Still, if several coronavirus variants end up aiding an expected surge of cases in the U.S. following spring break, “Godzilla” marking an optimistic return to cinemas could be a difficult feeling to sustain, making it possible that big releases on deck for May like “Black Widow” and “A Quiet Place Part II” will move again.

 

I’m on mobile, so sorry if this looks weird on desktop. (FYI, you should be able to bypass the paywall by putting a period after the .com)

[Eric Duncan]

22 hours ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	12	23	965	1461	66.05%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 34

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	12	24	992	1519	65.31%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 58

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

[keysersoze123]

On 3/18/2021 at 3:31 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-13)

MTC1 - 20194/248466 305707.00 1229 shows +2764

MTC2 - 23245/278745 270578.45  1790 shows +2992

 

Another solid day. We have to wait until release week to see bigger moves. 

 

 

Godzilla vs Kong (T-12)

MTC1 - 23073/254869 346977.00 1268 shows +2879

MTC2 - 26727/283357 311100.53  1822 shows +3482

 

I just got the data now and so its like 30 hours of data. Still its chugging along well. 

[Porthos]

On 3/18/2021 at 10:31 PM, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	99	3171	3976	805	20.25%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	204
Total Seats Sold Today	126

 

====

 

T-13 Comp (absolutely lol [at the moment at least] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	120.69		61	667		0/90	11465/12132	5.50%		7.60m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	13
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	2
Adjusted Seats Approximation	236

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

 

===

 

About 90 fewer confirmed tickets sold than yesterday, but 6 more Private Watch Parties added to the probable overall total.  Still distancing itself from KotM's 6.3m opening night.

 

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	101	3138	4170	1032	24.75%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	2
Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	194
Total Seats Sold Today	227

 

====

 

T-12 Comp (absolutely lol [at the moment at least] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	143.93		50	717		0/90	11415/12132	5.91%		9.07m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	20
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	3
Adjusted Seats Approximation	362

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

 

===

 

Local TrueIMAX came online sometime in the last 36 hours (officially announced today, but looks like they were selling tickets yesterday) and the Private Watch Parties keep piling up.

 

Also a strong day of sales outside of the PWPs.  I think.  Find out within a few days.

[Jamiem]

Decided to have a look at how GvK is doing locally here in NZ

 

Godzilla vs Kong - Early Sneaks, 4 days before opening, Albany, New Zealand (Wednesday 24th March 2021)

 

7:15pm VMAX 57/185

7:15pm GC 6/40

 

Total for day: 63/225

 

Godzilla vs Kong - Opening day, 5 days before opening, Albany, New Zealand (Thursday 25th March 2021)

 

11:15am VMAX 6/185

2:00pm VMAX 4/185

4:45pm VMAX 10/185

6:30pm GC 2/30

7:15pm GC 6/40

7:30pm VMAX 13/185

 

Total for day 41/810

 

Total combined 104/1035 (10.05%)

 

Not bad but far from great, no point using my only recent comp which is WW84 (its way behind that) which was boosted by the Boxing Day holiday. 

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2021 by Jamiem