The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

The daily increases of ~15% are very impressive. MTC pre-sales are actually pre-COVID strong but that's with absence of one MTC and Canada not being fully back.

 

Comparing with two pre Covid films, its currently

4.5x Sonic Thursday ~15M

3.5x Jumanji Thursday ~16.5M

 

Now this is without considering the PWPs. WW84 had 10K plus PWPs for weekend, generating $2M+ of the gross for the film. I assume majority of those would be for day one only. This can easily have may be 15K considering more theaters will be open now.

 

Comparing with WW84, we don't have T-12 days numbers but

2.1x T-14 Days ~$15M

1.17x T-7 Days ~$8.5M

 

Extrapolating gives another $13M approx.

Edited March 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

It’s so nice to see this thread alive again. The real indicator for the BO recovery 😛 

[Borobudur]

23 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

It’s so nice to see this thread alive again. The real indicator for the BO recovery 😛 

Is it still possible to see cinema to open 50% capacity in CA and NYC by GvK?

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Is it still possible to see cinema to open 50% capacity in CA and NYC by GvK?

50% should happen in most important regions of CA. NYC won’t at this point.

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The daily increases of ~15% are very impressive. MTC pre-sales are actually pre-COVID strong but that's with absence of one MTC and Canada not being fully back.

 

Comparing with two pre Covid films, its currently

4.5x Sonic Thursday ~15M

3.5x Jumanji Thursday ~16.5M

 

Now this is without considering the PWPs. WW84 had 10K plus PWPs for weekend, generating $2M+ of the gross for the film. I assume majority of those would be for day one only. This can easily have may be 15K considering more theaters will be open now.

 

Comparing with WW84, we don't have T-12 days numbers but

2.1x T-14 Days ~$15M

1.17x T-7 Days ~$8.5M

 

Extrapolating gives another $13M approx.

Big difference between pre covid and now is about theater capacity. Take Empire 25 for example. All imax "sold out" and except 1 seat for 1 show all Dolby sold out as well. Regular shows have also filled up(more than 50% overall). So there is limited potential for late boost which used to be the biggest part of Presales for most movies(except Avengers or Star Wars which used to start out HUGE). 

 

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Big difference between pre covid and now is about theater capacity. Take Empire 25 for example. All imax "sold out" and except 1 seat for 1 show all Dolby sold out as well. Regular shows have also filled up(more than 50% overall). So there is limited potential for late boost which used to be the biggest part of Presales for most movies(except Avengers or Star Wars which used to start out HUGE). 

 

Some places in California like SF and LA are probably gonna have a late surge with them opening up to 50% capacity by the time the movie releases tho.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Big difference between pre covid and now is about theater capacity. Take Empire 25 for example. All imax "sold out" and except 1 seat for 1 show all Dolby sold out as well. Regular shows have also filled up(more than 50% overall). So there is limited potential for late boost which used to be the biggest part of Presales for most movies(except Avengers or Star Wars which used to start out HUGE).

Yeah and we aren't getting that normal PSm like WW84, so WW84 comp is perhaps better one.

[Borobudur]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Big difference between pre covid and now is about theater capacity. Take Empire 25 for example. All imax "sold out" and except 1 seat for 1 show all Dolby sold out as well. Regular shows have also filled up(more than 50% overall). So there is limited potential for late boost which used to be the biggest part of Presales for most movies(except Avengers or Star Wars which used to start out HUGE). 

 

I can see the box office gross easily got doubled up if they allowed CA to increase its capacity to 50%.

 

1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

50% should happen in most important regions of CA. NYC won’t at this point.

Maybe better odd for NYC by BW time.

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Maybe better odd for NYC by BW time.

Yeah they should be 50 or 75% on May 7.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The daily increases of ~15% are very impressive. MTC pre-sales are actually pre-COVID strong but that's with absence of one MTC and Canada not being fully back.

 

Comparing with two pre Covid films, its currently

4.5x Sonic Thursday ~15M

3.5x Jumanji Thursday ~16.5M

 

Now this is without considering the PWPs. WW84 had 10K plus PWPs for weekend, generating $2M+ of the gross for the film. I assume majority of those would be for day one only. This can easily have may be 15K considering more theaters will be open now.

 

Comparing with WW84, we don't have T-12 days numbers but

2.1x T-14 Days ~$15M

1.17x T-7 Days ~$8.5M

 

Extrapolating gives another $13M approx.

That was T-8 I believe for WW84. 

[keysersoze123]

I doubt we will see 75% theater capacity until case count becomes negligible. Dont forget we still are seeing 50K cases per day. That is still ridiculously high. I want to see case count reduce by order of magnitude before we act as if things are normal. Other benchmark is vaccinated count. I hope we have 60-70% of adults vaccinated. But that will take at least June even if supply ceases to be an issue. logistics of vaccination will take time. 

 

Anyway GvK is doing well despite being hybrid release. I cannot believe they are going to go with Hybrid release for Matrix 4 !!!!

[Porthos]

A practical consideration should be made that even with 50% or higher caps, social distancing still chews up a LOT of seats.  I can see it just on seat maps alone when I am checking every night.

 

I would be wary of having too high of an expectation when it comes to capacity, especially as long as some of the larger auditoriums are blocking out every other row even before blocking out seats to give space between purchases.

[charlie Jatinder]

If GvK opens to say $50M 5 days, I have two questions.

 

1. Just how big this would have opened in normalcy pre Covid because $50M 5 days would be pretty big. I know the pre-sales are strong but $50M still feels like a big number. OR day and date release didn't had much impact on the box office, and it probably would have opened $100-120M 5 days in normalcy. If so,

 

2. Does that encourage WB or for that matter Disney to go forward with day and date or shorter window of may be 2 weeks next year too. 

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I doubt we will see 75% theater capacity until case count becomes negligible. Dont forget we still are seeing 50K cases per day. That is still ridiculously high. I want to see case count reduce by order of magnitude before we act as if things are normal. Other benchmark is vaccinated count. I hope we have 60-70% of adults vaccinated. But that will take at least June even if supply ceases to be an issue. logistics of vaccination will take time. 

 

Anyway GvK is doing well despite being hybrid release. I cannot believe they are going to go with Hybrid release for Matrix 4 !!!!

California looks on track for 100% by May 7 in quite a few important counties. 

[Borobudur]

2 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Yeah they should be 50 or 75% on May 7.

Looking through public holiday in USA and found this holiday on 31Mar and observed by those states, is this true because I hardly see people mention Cesar Day. Will this help box office since big state like California observe the holiday.

 

31 Mar	Wednesday	César Chávez Day	State holiday	AZ*, CA*, CO***, MI*, NM*, NV*, TX***, UT*, WA*, WI*

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

California looks on track for 100% by May 7 in quite a few important counties. 

Doesn't that require a change in guidelines from the state?  I've been looking about and I can't see what changes when it comes to capacity when California hits 4m vaccinations in underserved communities.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Doesn't that require a change in guidelines from the state?  I've been looking about and I can't see what changes when it comes to capacity when California hits 4m vaccinations in underserved communities.

I was just being a knucklehead, full retraction warranted 😅

 

I’ve been watching the purple/red/orange/yellow stuff closely, but I didn’t double check what capacity was in yellow, just assumed based on purple 0, red 25, orange 50. Under the current guidelines, I guess nothing is heading for 100% ever 🤣

 

On a separate note, is certainly seems reasonable, and likely, to get a new update to the framework in the next month or so, especially when they hit the final vaccine goal for the equity quartile. Maybe add a new 5th green tier or something.

Edited March 20, 2021 by WandaLegion

[misterpepp]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

2. Does that encourage WB or for that matter Disney to go forward with day and date or shorter window of may be 2 weeks next year too. 

Shorter window, perhaps. Though day-and-date, probably not since I believe WB isn't going to be seeing the majority of the theatrical money under the current theater-favoring terms due to the hybrid strategy.

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

It’s so nice to see this thread alive again. The real indicator for the BO recovery 😛 

*sees thread has just been pinned to its rightful place in the forum*

 

Nature is healing, everyone! 👍

 

(was going to ask to have the thread re-pinned, but kept putting it off )

Edited March 20, 2021 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

California looks on track for 100% by May 7 in quite a few important counties. 

I doubt that will happen. California will not be able to ramp up vaccination that fast. There are huge logistical issues vaccinating 30 million+ people. Case count have dropped but a spring break could cause that to jump up. Look at NY, they were doing great and now they are hitting big numbers again. Plus even if county relaxes restrictions(I think the california counties will be the most conservative), theaters wont go for 100%. I think at most we will see 50% or 100/200 seats max per show. I think we will go to 100% seats only when case counts are negligible. As I said earlier last thing we want is numbers to go up and they blame indoor movie theater crowd for that.