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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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On 3/17/2021 at 6:25 PM, Menor said:

Still not quite sure about the data but I have for Wednesday 1685 total private shows at MTC2 with 679 being sold. My overall show count is a bit higher than what Keyser has at 1932 vs 1746, but I haven't yet corrected the dbox double show issue so that may be why. Shouldn't affect the private show count either way. Will edit this post when I get the data for Th-Fri-Sat-Sun. Not sure this will make a big difference to overall BO, although it apparently did for Wonder Woman so who knows. 

 

Wednesday: 679 sold out of 1685 total 

Thursday: 307 sold out of 1714 total

Friday:  734 sold out of 2637 total

Saturday: 1404 sold out of 2968 total

Sunday:  369 sold out of 2744 total. 

 

One thing with the weekend numbers is that more of these may be for other films as some theaters are consistently selling out a large portion of their weekend private screenings already. @keysersoze123 when you have time could you check the normal PS at the MTCs for April 2 and April 3? 

Wednesday is up to 1121 sold out of 1887 total. I checked Tuesday as a control and it was 199 sold out of 1421 total. So we can say that OD PWPs are probably 80-85% for GvK. 

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On 3/22/2021 at 9:25 AM, WandaLegion said:

If one of the scrapers has time, I’m getting pretty curious how things are looking for Nobody.

Dismal around here with a lot of empty shows. Tbh I doubt it would have done much even in normal times. A "wait for streaming" title if there ever was one.

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Assuming 80% for GvK, MTC 2 has ~900 PWPs for OD. MTC 1 prolly 2K PWPs. Other chains may be 500, so round about 3.5K PWPs for OD. Taking $175 avg per PWP, that's roughly $600K. Final may be $1M.

 

Assuming we will get like 1.4x PSm, for $15M OD, will need pre-sales around $10M for OD. WW84 had IIRC 1.25x PSm, but that was prolly more fan loaded.

 

 

This needs some work.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Assuming 80% for GvK, MTC 2 has ~900 PWPs for OD. MTC 1 prolly 2K PWPs. Other chains may be 500, so round about 3.5K PWPs for OD. Taking $175 avg per PWP, that's roughly $600K. Final may be $1M.

 

Assuming we will get like 1.4x PSm, for $15M OD, will need pre-sales around $10M for OD. WW84 had IIRC 1.25x PSm, but that was prolly more fan loaded.

Nvm

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22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 328 1434 22.87%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 205 1835 11.17%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 4 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1063 377 10618 10.01% 8 53

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 159

 

$150 PWPs: 16(+5)

$200 PWPs: 3(+1)

$250 PWPs: 2

$300 PWPs: 4(+2)

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 385 2335 16.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 219 1835 11.93%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
1227 164 11965 10.25% 8 64

Showings added: 11

Seats added: 1347

 

$150 PWPs: 16

$200 PWPs: 3

$250 PWPs: 2

$300 PWPs: 5(+1)

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Hobbs and Shaw Denver final Thursday was 2,052. Adjusting for Canada Thursday night were $5.5M.

 

Here I assume its 1227 + 500 Approx for PWPs, roughly $4.6M Nationwide equivalent for OD already. Damn.

 

Similarly using @Porthos numbers,

Hobbs and Shaw final numbers was 2k, while GvK is already 2.7k + 0.4-0.5k (PWP). 

 

Though both Denver & Sacramento are overperforming, Sac town is really overperforming a lot.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hobbs and Shaw Denver final Thursday was 2,052. Adjusting for Canada Thursday night were $5.5M.

 

Here I assume its 1227 + 500 Approx for PWPs, roughly $4.6M Nationwide equivalent for OD already. Damn.

Minus Regal as well though.

Edited by Menor
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2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Minus Regal as well though.

I don't think a 500 theater chain closed has same impact as say 500 theater states closed.

 

Say in a city 2k people want to watch a film, there are 5 amc, 5 regal & 3 cinemark having 1000 seats each, for a total of 13,000 seats.

 

Now if say Regal was closed, there's still 8000 seats available for 2k people to watch something. Just that say the 500-700 people who would have watched at Regal will watch at either AMC or Cinemark.

 

However if city has only Regal theater,  then that will impact the sales.

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3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't think a 500 theater chain closed has same impact as say 500 theater states closed.

 

Say in a city 2k people want to watch a film, there are 5 amc, 5 regal & 3 cinemark having 1000 seats each, for a total of 13,000 seats.

 

Now if say Regal was closed, there's still 8000 seats available for 2k people to watch something. Just that say the 500-700 people who would have watched at Regal will watch at either AMC or Cinemark.

 

However if city has only Regal theater,  then that will impact the sales.

Yeah, but it will affect the comps. Like @Porthoshas said that there aren't any Regal-only areas in his region, not sure about @Inceptionzq. So extrapolating from these two will potentially overstate things.

Edited by Menor
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Just now, Menor said:

So extrapolating from these two will potentially overstate things

Wasn't seriously extrapolating these two. Besides thankfully we have nationwide numbers for MTCs, so city wise data is just not that level accurate anyways.

 

Though its crazy how Sacramento is more often that not too close to actuals.

 

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Let's also not forget theater closures in random Small/Medium Town America.

 

For instance, our very own @Cap is now theater-less after her local small chain closed up shop for good.  Hopefully someone will step into the void, but a small chain here and a small chain there?  Well, adds up.

 

Not just the Big 3 MTCs in other words (or 4 if one counts "MTC4").

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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Though its crazy how Sacramento is more often that not too close to actuals.

 

giphy.gif

 

===

 

A tiny bit more seriously, Sacramento was/is a test market for quite a few products given how well we represent American tastes, at least at a broad level.

 

Our demos are considered to be one of the most diverse in the nation, though how that's measured is always up to debate.

 

So maybe not that surprising, though there have been some memorable misses.

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7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Let's also not forget theater closures in random Small/Medium Town America.

 

For instance, our very own @Cap is now theater-less after her local small chain closed up shop for good.  Hopefully someone will step into the void, but a small chain here and a small chain there?  Well, adds up.

 

Not just the Big 3 MTCs in other words (or 4 if one counts "MTC4").

Yeah, no really good comps for this one unfortunately. WW84 is probably the best we can do but the situation is far different now than even then. 

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8 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yeah, no really good comps for this one unfortunately. WW84 is probably the best we can do but the situation is far different now than even then. 

Pretty much.  Flying completely blind here.  

 

If I at all come close to the Wed Number, it'll be sheer dumb luck more than anything else.  Presuming it's even released.

 

It'd be funny if my not counting PWPs in the lol-comp block actually matters by canceling out the over-sample from non-Regal/other chains.  That is, two factors canceling each other out.  Does mean I wouldn't be able to count on that luck going forward, but I wasn't planning on using GvK much for comps going forward anyways.

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54 minutes ago, Menor said:

Yeah, but it will affect the comps. Like @Porthoshas said that there aren't any Regal-only areas in his region, not sure about @Inceptionzq. So extrapolating from these two will potentially overstate things.

Yeah, I only track one Regal theater. And there are quite a few in the Denver area(never realized but AMC and Regal are even). So it may not necessarily be that Denver is overperforming, but that the theaters I track are getting some more business than usual because of the Regal closures.

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On 3/21/2021 at 7:51 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-10)

MTC1 - 27091/258162 402666.00 1283 shows +1826

MTC2 -  31270/286409 362441.17 1836 shows +2058

 

 

Godzilla vs Kong (T-8)

MTC1 - 31804/308311 463439.00 1589 shows +4713

MTC2 - 36719/309367 424091.89 2023 shows +5449

 

I did not post an update yesterday evening. So its almost 2 days of data. Good increase in show count and ticket sales. 

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2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Let's also not forget theater closures in random Small/Medium Town America.

 

For instance, our very own @Cap is now theater-less after her local small chain closed up shop for good.  Hopefully someone will step into the void, but a small chain here and a small chain there?  Well, adds up.

 

Not just the Big 3 MTCs in other words (or 4 if one counts "MTC4").

I need AMC to be a hero and buy them out. Or at least buy our theater. The state is now without an IMAX. And our theater JUST updated to recliners. It’s basically brand new. The only thing Cineworld or AMC would have to do is rebrand the lobby. 
 

ETA: I say AMC cause they don’t have any theaters in the state, whereas Regal already has a presence. 

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27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-8)

MTC1 - 31804/308311 463439.00 1589 shows +4713

MTC2 - 36719/309367 424091.89 2023 shows +5449

 

I did not post an update yesterday evening. So its almost 2 days of data. Good increase in show count and ticket sales. 

Compared to where you had WW84 on T-8, it's 63% ahead in gross and 25% ahead in admits. Quite solid imo. But it'll need to start accelerating soon to remain on pace. 

Edited by Menor
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14 minutes ago, Cap said:

I need AMC to be a hero and buy them out. Or at least buy our theater. The state is now without an IMAX. And our theater JUST updated to recliners. It’s basically brand new. The only thing Cineworld or AMC would have to do is rebrand the lobby. 
 

ETA: I say AMC cause they don’t have any theaters in the state, whereas Regal already has a presence. 

Join the darkside Team Cinemark, we have cookies!

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