The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-8)

MTC1 - 31804/308311 463439.00 1589 shows +4713

MTC2 - 36719/309367 424091.89 2023 shows +5449

 

I did not post an update yesterday evening. So its almost 2 days of data. Good increase in show count and ticket sales. 

Roughly $2M in sales nationwide, compared to $1.25M of WW84. Roughly +60%. 

 

The increase is similar to WW84 in last 6 days, but just being conservative, say final number will be +50% WW84. That would be around $9M + $1M PWPs. Still great considering its XMAS day vs a weekday Wednesday.

 

@keysersoze123 can you please add theater count along with shows now on. Does anyone know how many MTC 1 were open when WW84 released. Now almost all of them are open and Keyser is covering 40% of them as per his last update. I suppose these 40% make up atleast 50% of MTC nationwide numbers.

 

As for projections now; thinking

10
7 Good Friday eve shall boost night shows
13 Good Friday

13

9

4 Easter Monday

~55 6 days

Edited March 24, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

Nobody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	29	75	1648	4.55%

 

Comps

88% of Chaos Walking T-3 Days Before Release ($1.17M OD)

Nobody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	116	3778	3.07%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 26

Total Seats Added Today: 2,130

Total Seats Sold Today: 41

 

Comps

1.381x of Chaos Walking T-2 Days Before Release ($1.83M OD)

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric #TeamKong said:

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	17	31	1224	2586	47.33%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 7

Total Seats Added Today: 1,067

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 75

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	18	47	1298	3305	39.27%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 16

Total Seats Added Today: 719

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 74

[keysersoze123]

I am tracking shows at 251 theaters for this movie at MTC1.Overall I look at 380 theaters to look for shows with reserved seating. Not all of them show the movie and many of them(especially ones from carmike acquisition) have no reserved seats. 

 

I am tracking 223 theaters from MTC2 for GVK. Overall I am looking at 280 theaters that generally have reserved seating. 

 

It will take some time for me to see if any more theaters in the chain have added reserved seating. 

 

While its hard to extrapolate during COVID times as there is not enough data, Pre-COVID the MTC1+MTC2 BO was around 35%(sometimes it over or under indexed) of overall BO. it was fairly easy to extrapolate from the numbers. 

 

[Jamiem]

22 hours ago, Jamiem said:

Godzilla vs Kong - Early Sneaks, 1 days before opening, Albany, New Zealand (Wednesday 24th March 2021)

 

6:30pm GC 7/30 (NEW)

7:00pm VMAX 11/131 (NEW)

7:15pm VMAX 86/185 (+13)

7:15pm GC 31/40 (+2)

 

Total for day: 102/386 (+33/+161)

 

Godzilla vs Kong - Opening day, 2 days before opening, Albany, New Zealand (Thursday 25th March 2021)

 

11:15am VMAX 6/185

12:30pm VMAX 4/131 (NEW)

1:15pm 9/216 (NEW)

2:00pm VMAX 4/185

3:15pm 4/131 VMAX (NEW)

4:00pm 9/216 (NEW)

4:45pm VMAX 21/185 (+6)

6:00pm VMAX 4/131 (NEW)

6:30pm GC 4/30 (-2)

6:45pm 9/216 (NEW)

7:15pm GC 16/40 (+4)

7:30pm VMAX 32/185 (+9)

8:45pm 9/216 (NEW)

 

Total for day 131/2067 (+65/+1257)

 

Total combined 233/2453 (9.50%) (+98/+1418)

 

Lots of added showtimes today, pretty slow sales for only a day or so left until it comes out though.

 

Here are some non monetary comps (for 12 hours before release compared to the 24/40 hours for GVK)

 

Hobbs and Shaw - 361/3560 (10.14%) 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 296/2230 (13.27%) 

Joker - 446/2756 (16.18%)

WW84 - 734/2416 (30.38%)

 

None of these are perfect comps (due to the 12 hour before I used for night before which is when GvK has previews) but gives a rough idea of how GvK is selling relative to other blockbusters, I’ll leave these up unchanged for tomorrow as well.

Godzilla vs Kong - Early Sneaks, 1 Hour before opening, Albany, New Zealand (Wednesday 24th March 2021)

 

6:30pm GC 18/30 (+11)

7:00pm VMAX 54/131 (+43)

7:15pm VMAX 124/185 (+38)

7:15pm GC 31/40

7:25pm 21/216 (NEW)

 

Total for day: 248/602 (+113/+216)

 

Godzilla vs Kong - Opening day, 18 hours before opening, Albany, New Zealand (Thursday 25th March 2021)

 

11:15am VMAX 6/185

12:30pm VMAX 4/131

1:15pm 9/216

2:00pm VMAX 4/185

3:15pm 4/131 VMAX

4:00pm 9/216

4:45pm VMAX 21/185

6:00pm VMAX 8/131 (+4)

6:30pm GC 10/30 (+6)

6:45pm 9/216

7:15pm GC 16/40

7:30pm VMAX 40/185 (+8)

8:45pm 9/216

 

Total for day 149/2067 (+18)

 

Total combined 397/2669 (14.87%) (+131/+216)

 

Final update.

 

Great day for the sneak showings with a very late additional cinema added, sales fro tomorrow were weak but hopefully walkups improve things there. Also there is a clear demand for VMAX compared to the regular sessions which bodes well for ATP.

 

Here are some non monetary comps (for 12 hours before release compared to the 1/18 hours for GVK)

 

Hobbs and Shaw - 361/3560 (10.14%) 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 296/2230 (13.27%) 

Joker - 446/2756 (16.18%)

WW84 - 734/2416 (30.38%)

 

None of these are perfect comps (due to the 12 hour before I used for night before which is when GvK has previews) but gives a rough idea of how GvK is selling relative to other blockbusters.

 

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-8)

MTC1 - 31804/308311 463439.00 1589 shows (251 theaters) +4713 //326 shows with zero tickets sold

MTC2 - 36719/309367 424091.89 2023 shows +5449

 

I did not post an update yesterday evening. So its almost 2 days of data. Good increase in show count and ticket sales. 

I tried to look at all MTC theaters and found data for lot more shows. 

 

MTC1 - 39617/412322 569033.00 2149 shows(306 theaters)  // 530 shows have not sold any tickets. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	11	101	2538	4202	1664	39.60%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	4
Total Seats Sold Today	249

 

====

 

T-9 Comp (lol [at the moment at least] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	196.92		34	845		0/90	11278/12123	6.97%		12.41m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	38
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	5
Adjusted Seats Approximation	678

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

 

===

 

NothingStopsThisTrain—Nothing.gif

 

More seriously, don't know what to tell ya folks.  This thing ain't slowing down one iota locally.  Doesn't mean this is happening across the country, especially without Regal in the equation, just that it's doing pretty well locally all things considered. 

 

 

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	14	115	2846	4784	1938	40.51%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	3
Total Showings Added Today	14
Total Seats Added Today	582
Total Seats Sold Today	274

 

====

 

T-8 Comp (lol [well, probably] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	213.91		61	906		0/93	11736/12642	7.17%		13.48m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	47
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	5
Adjusted Seats Approximation	822

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

 

===

 

Some, but not all, Cinemarks started to add showings today.  There was also some discussion between myself and @WandaLegion whether or not the one theater that could expand to a cap of 50%/200 max seating would or not today.  Judging by the sellouts which did not become available for purchase to pick up those now legal extra seats I'm going with: Not Yet.

 

I'll keep an eye on it going forward, however.

[charlie Jatinder]

Sacramento is killing it. Assuming 80% of PWPs are for GVK, already 2600 seats sold T-8 Days. 

 

Having fun with some of T-8 Days numbers, adjusting for Canada.

 

17% of TROS - $6M

130% of Frozen 2 - $10M

58% of CM - $11M

133% of Toy Story 4 - $14M

70% of TLK - $14.5M

180% of IT Chapter 2 - $17M

256% of Joker - $30M 
 

Edited March 24, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sacramento is killing it. Assuming 80% of PWPs are for GVK, already 2600 seats sold T-8 Days. 

 

Having fun with some of T-8 Days numbers, adjusting for Canada.

 

17% of TROS - $6M

130% of Frozen 2 - $10M

58% of CM - $11M

133% of Toy Story 4 - $14M

70% of TLK - $14.5M

180% of IT Chapter 2 - $17M

256% of Joker - $30M 
 

31Mar is a state holiday in California, it should have some decent overperforming

Edited March 24, 2021 by Borobudur

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sacramento is killing it. Assuming 80% of PWPs are for GVK, already 2600 seats sold T-8 Days. 

 

Having fun with some of T-8 Days numbers, adjusting for Canada.

 

17% of TROS - $6M

130% of Frozen 2 - $10M

58% of CM - $11M

133% of Toy Story 4 - $14M

70% of TLK - $14.5M

180% of IT Chapter 2 - $17M

256% of Joker - $30M 
 

The real test begins in a couple of days.   Here's one example:

 

KotM:

   Sellouts Showings   Seats      Total    Perct 	Total        Sold  
                        Left      Seats     Sold     Seats Sold   That Day
T-6:	0	98	12654	  13740	   7.90%	1086	      78
T-5:	0	98	12552	  13740	   8.65%	1188	     102
T-4:	0	98	12441	  13740	   9.45%	1299	     111
T-3:	0	101	12310	  13740	   10.41%	1430	     131
T-2:	0	120	13471	  15108	   10.84%	1637	     207
T-1:	0	125	13495	  15483	   12.84%	1988	     351
T-0.5:	0	125	13097	  15483	   15.41%	2386	     398
T-0:	0	129	12885	  15763	   18.26%	2878	     492

(NOTE:  The day-of is split into a mid-day update and a final update sampled at 4pm local time)

 

How much will GvK ramp up in the last week of sales and day-of?

 

No clue.  But as you note, if one presumes 80% of PWPs, then yes, it is almost past KotM locally.  Be interesting to see how it plays in the run-up, that's for sure.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I tried to look at all MTC theaters and found data for lot more shows. 

 

MTC1 - 39617/412322 569033.00 2149 shows(306 theaters)  // 530 shows have not sold any tickets. 

That will be good to have going forward. But to compare with WW84 I guess it's better to use the number from the lower amount of theaters? 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

That will be good to have going forward. But to compare with WW84 I guess it's better to use the number from the lower amount of theaters? 

Well I am actually not using the raw numbers but trying to put Nationwide number.

 

e.g. at time of WW84, Keyser tracked 205 theaters from MTC 1 out ~400-410 open back then. i.e. around 50% of nationwide.

 

For GvK, his initial numbers were from 243 theaters out of 580 opened i.e. 42% approx, but since the CA and NY are open now, the ones tracked probably had 50% coverage of gross. So $463K was probably, $925K nationwide.

 

The latest 306 theaters are 53% of total open, I am assuming they make 60% of the total gross, i.e. close to $950K. so round about similar.

[TwoMisfits]

On 3/20/2021 at 11:38 PM, TwoMisfits said:

Okay, it's 5 days later than my 1st post...

Cinemark 1 - now up to 47 seats sold (so almost 9% sold) - still has 3 of 9 PVPs sold (I posted that in a later update) - no extra capacity with regular showings or PVP yet

Cinemark 2 - now up 13 premiums seats sold and 8 regular seats sold (so about 2.5% sold) - it has 10 of 12 PVPs sold out (did I tell you my area loves these - gonna be hard to break the habit at this one)

 

Not sure if regular or PVP shows will be added at either theater - at Cinemark 2, I think if they add another screen of PVP, they'll sell it, but then they have to be willing to let go of a possible bigger revenue with ticket sales...then again, their sales are lagging Cinemark 1 for regular tickets, so they may just have a PVP willing audience right now...

 

One week to open (and 4 days from last post:).

Cinemark 1 - now 8 regular showings and 7 PVPs - 2 PVPs switched to regular seats (I know b/c they are 60 seaters) - weird call, but okay - regular seat capacity is probably now closer to 580ish vs 540ish

86 regular seats sold (up 39) - big jump in sales for evening showings - with only 2, MAYBE the theater decides to add on a 9 or 9:30pm (right now, its last showing is 8:30pm)

5 of 7 PVPs sold (up 2)

Total sold of capacity = 86/580 or 15% of available seats, 71% of available PVPs

 

Cinemark 2 - still 6 showings premium, 3 showings 2d, 12 showings PVP

35 premium seats sold (up 22)

13 regular seats sold (up 5)

12 of 12 PVPs sold out - no more added yet (up 2)

Total sold of capacity = 48/800 or 6% of available seats, 100% of available PVP

 

Cinemark 2 should really find one more screen of PVPS - it will sell them, and it's lagging the regular sales of Cinemark 1...which I expect (on both counts)...

 

PS - Neither has added to showings yet since last update (there was only the swap), but they are still not set for next Wednesday...

Edited March 24, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

One week to open (and 4 days from last post:).

Cinemark 1 - now 8 regular showings and 7 PVPs - 2 PVPs switched to regular seats (I know b/c they are 60 seaters) - weird call, but okay - regular seat capacity is probably now closer to 580ish vs 540ish

86 regular seats sold (up 39) - big jump in sales for evening showings - with only 2, MAYBE the theater decides to add on a 9 or 9:30pm (right now, its last showing is 8:30pm)

5 of 7 PVPs sold (up 2)

Total sold of capacity = 86/580 or 15% of available seats, 71% of available PVPs

 

Cinemark 2 - still 6 showings premium, 3 showings 2d, 12 showings PVP

35 premium seats sold (up 22)

13 regular seats sold (up 5)

12 of 12 PVPs sold out - no more added yet (up 2)

Total sold of capacity = 48/800 or 6% of available seats, 100% of available PVP

 

Cinemark 2 should really find one more screen of PVPS - it will sell them, and it's lagging the regular sales of Cinemark 1...which I expect (on both counts)...

 

PS - Neither has added to showings yet since last update (there was only the swap), but they are still not set for next Wednesday...

It does seem a little strange that there appears to be a lot more demand in Sacto than your neck of the woods.  I presume you're reporting on the capped amount of seats when you mention capacity.

 

Wonder if Sacto is performing differently since theaters were closed for so much longer than your area.  The idea of pent-up demand.

 

Or maybe we just like kaiju fighting flicks. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

FWIW, KotM absolutely didn't over-perform locally.  Indeed its weakness against JW2 in presales, especially in the final days of presales, was a sign that it wasn't gonna do all that well nationwide.  So Sacramento won't show up just because it's a monster flick.

 

Yeah.  I gots nothing.

 

(also don't really recall the historical patterns of your theater at the seat level, so I can't recall how quickly they fill up over there)

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It does seem a little strange that there appears to be a lot more demand in Sacto than your neck of the woods.  I presume you're reporting on the capped amount of seats when you mention capacity.

 

Wonder if Sacto is performing differently since theaters were closed for so much longer than your area.  The idea of pent-up demand.

 

Or maybe we just like kaiju fighting flicks. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

FWIW, KotM absolutely didn't over-perform locally.  Indeed its weakness against JW2 in presales, especially in the final days of presales, was a sign that it wasn't gonna do all that well nationwide.  So Sacramento won't show up just because it's a monster flick.

 

Yeah.  I gots nothing.

 

(also don't really recall the historical patterns of your theater at the seat level, so I can't recall how quickly they fill up over there)

Is it possible that Cesar Chavez day might be affecting things? Not being from California I have no idea if people are actually off work/school.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Is it possible that Cesar Chavez day might be affecting things? Not being from California I have no idea if people are actually off work/school.

I really doubt it personally. State workers get the day off and schools are closed, but that's about it.  And schools are their own thing thanks to the 'rona.

 

I mean, it could be a factor at the edges.  But I'd think Spring Break would be a bigger factor.

[Porthos]

Maybe I am discounting Cesar Chavez Day a bit too much.  State government is a large employer locally, thanks to this being the state capital.

 

But, I dunno.  I liken it to Indigenous People's Day/Christopher Columbus Day when it comes to how much impact it actually has.  Some, but not a lot.

 

I suppose ultimately I would expect it to be a factor, but not so large as to explain a huge jump.  And, after all, it's killing it in Eric's neck of the woods as well.

 

Yeah.  Dunno.  Time will tell as it usually does.

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/23/2021 at 1:57 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

385

2335

16.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

219

1835

11.93%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1227	164	11965	10.25%	8	64

Showings added: 11

Seats added: 1347

 

$150 PWPs: 16

$200 PWPs: 3

$250 PWPs: 2

$300 PWPs: 5(+1)

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

424

3026

14.01%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

256

2164

11.83%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1386	159	15755	8.80%	8	89

Showings added: 25

Seats added: 3790

 

$150 PWPs: 16

$200 PWPs: 3

$250 PWPs: 2

$300 PWPs: 5

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

It does seem a little strange that there appears to be a lot more demand in Sacto than your neck of the woods.  I presume you're reporting on the capped amount of seats when you mention capacity.

 

Wonder if Sacto is performing differently since theaters were closed for so much longer than your area.  The idea of pent-up demand.

 

Or maybe we just like kaiju fighting flicks. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

FWIW, KotM absolutely didn't over-perform locally.  Indeed its weakness against JW2 in presales, especially in the final days of presales, was a sign that it wasn't gonna do all that well nationwide.  So Sacramento won't show up just because it's a monster flick.

 

Yeah.  I gots nothing.

 

(also don't really recall the historical patterns of your theater at the seat level, so I can't recall how quickly they fill up over there)

Yep, capacity is the capped number - I took a wag of about 35% of each theater for possible seats to sell:)...giving 90 available seats/show to the 250 seat theaters, as one example...

 

Yeah, it's spring break here, too...and our Regals are closed, so there's a few AMCs, but these Cinemarks are gonna carry quite a bit of the area (aka, they should really sell to get a big number)...

 

GvK might have huge sale areas and slow sale areas, and they may not be solely population or theater coverage based, but still based on comfortableness for viewing and the pent-up demand you mentioned (and maybe even how many folks might have bought HBO Max for streaming - I bet my area over-indexes there)...

Edited March 24, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

-edit-

 

Might be wrong info posted here as I check, please disregard for now.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Porthos