The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

FYI looking at Empire 25(which is normally the biggest grosser), its at 797 tickets sold(24 shows). Since NYC allows max capacity of 50 tickets, only 1200 tickets can be sold at max. All Imax/Dolby shows have almost sold out. Even 1AM/2AM shows(only ones to have tickets left) have only 1 or 2 tickets left. Even the regular shows are selling out. Except few regular shows post midnight I expect all the shows to sell out. I dont think they will add too many shows to avoid crowding up at lobby level. I expect it to play well through out the week. 

 

Lincoln Square Imax and Dolby have only 4 tickets left between 3 shows for complete sellout. But regular shows have almost no demand. 

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

I have a hard time seeing the OD below WW84. But we will see. WW84 I also thought should be lower from the MTC data. 

Most shows for Zilla are after 4PM. So day time BO is almost negligible. WW2 release on christmas and had shows full day. There is limit to how many shows that can be added without having them too close to each other and crowding the lobby. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Most shows for Zilla are after 4PM. So day time BO is almost negligible. WW2 release on christmas and had shows full day. There is limit to how many shows that can be added without having them too close to each other and crowding the lobby. 

It's a fair point, but it's not like WW2 had that many walkups even with those factors. So it's not like GvK needs some kind of huge burst to beat it, especially with GvK having significantly more PS. But you could be right. Tbh I have little idea how this will play out with all the uncertainties about the ratio, the late burst, the walkups. My gut is telling me 10 or higher but I could easily be off. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 3/23/2021 at 10:49 AM, Menor said:

Wednesday is up to 1121 sold out of 1887 total. I checked Tuesday as a control and it was 199 sold out of 1421 total. So we can say that OD PWPs are probably 80-85% for GvK. 

Godzilla vs Kong Cinemark PWPs:

 

Wednesday: 1354 sold out of 2067 total. Estimated sales (using 80% ratio): $161,396

 

Thursday: 880 sold out of 2028 total. Estimated sales: $104,896

 

Friday: 1612 sold out of 2891 total. Estimated sales no clue.

 

Saturday: 2434 sold out of 3281 total. Estimated sales again no clue. 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, Menor said:

It's a fair point, but it's not like WW2 had that many walkups even with those factors. So it's not like GvK needs some kind of huge burst to beat it, especially with GvK having significantly more PS. But you could be right. Tbh I have little idea how this will play out with all the uncertainties about the ratio, the late burst, the walkups. My gut is telling me 10 or higher but I could easily be off. 

My OD prediction is without PWP. So That could add couple of million if it can add 10K shows and average $200 per show. I would assume for wednesday almost all PWP should be GvK. weekend would not be that high. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Godzilla vs Kong Cinemark PWPs:

 

Wednesday: 1354 sold out of 2067 total. Estimated sales (using 80% ratio): $161,396

 

Thursday: 880 sold out of 2028 total. Estimated sales: $104,896

 

Friday: 1612 sold out of 2891 total. Estimated sales no clue.

 

Saturday: 2434 sold out of 3281 total. Estimated sales again no clue. 

I was just able to figure out how to see soldout PWP at MTC1. Today I was able to see 687 out of 1236 shows have sold out. But actual number will be higher as MTC1 is known to pullout shows out of its site after its sold out. So not sure what is the complete number. But price of PWP is as much as 349 in NYC. So average show price is lot higher at MTC1. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I was just able to figure out how to see soldout PWP at MTC1. Today I was able to see 687 out of 1236 shows have sold out. But actual number will be higher as MTC1 is known to pullout shows out of its site after its sold out. So not sure what is the complete number. But price of PWP is as much as 349 in NYC. So average show price is lot higher at MTC1. 

I was expecting MTC1 to have double the PWPs of MTC2. If not 👀

[Menor the Destroyer]

48 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I was expecting MTC1 to have double the PWPs of MTC2. If not 👀

Why? If even in regular sales we are getting a similar amount and the PWP is cheaper in MTC2. 

[keysersoze123]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I was expecting MTC1 to have double the PWPs of MTC2. If not 👀

Anecdotally some theaters have lots of PWPs while others have almost nothing. Empire 25 has 14 while Lincoln Square has just 1. Metreon at SF has 4 while one near Universal Studio in LA have 6 PWPs.  So its all over the place at MTC1. But previously they used to remove shows already sold out and so actual number could be higher. We will get data from studio on this anyway close to release. 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

Why? If even in regular sales we are getting a similar amount and the PWP is cheaper in MTC2. 

Nope. MTC 2 is almost fully tracked while MTC 1 is just 60-70% tracked.

[Eric Duncan]

On 3/24/2021 at 10:53 PM, Eric #TeamKong said:

Nobody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	175	3842	4.55%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 64

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comps

1.336x of Chaos Walking T-1 Day Before Release ($1.77M OD)

Nobody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	57	567	3881	14.61%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today:

Total Sellouts Added Today: 7

Total Seats Added Today: 392

 

Comp

1.588x of Chaos Walking ($2.11M OD)

[Eric Duncan]

On 3/24/2021 at 10:57 PM, Eric #TeamKong said:

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	19	52	1429	3471	41.17%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 166

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 131

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	22	52	1619	3471	46.64%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 3

Total Seats Sold Today: 190

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Nope. MTC 2 is almost fully tracked while MTC 1 is just 60-70% tracked.

I am currently looking at 517  595 locations at MTC1. if there are shows I will get them. So its lot more. from BO perspective I am covering almost all of them. Rest should not matter. 

 

Sorry for underreporting. its actually 595. 

Edited March 26, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Nope. MTC 2 is almost fully tracked while MTC 1 is just 60-70% tracked.

What I mean is from what Keyser is covering. 

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I was just able to figure out how to see soldout PWP at MTC1. Today I was able to see 687 out of 1236 shows(171.75K) have sold out. But actual number will be higher as MTC1 is known to pullout shows out of its site after its sold out. So not sure what is the complete number. But price of PWP is as much as 349 in NYC. So average show price is lot higher at MTC1. 

Data for Rest of the week PWPs. 

Thu - 573/1174 $143.25K
Fri - 1137/1945 $ 284.25K
Sat - 1612/2286 $403K
Sun - 787/2082 $196.75K

$ value I extrapolated assuming $250 average cost pre PWP. but it could be even close to $300 as big markets cost $350 and they would dominate the sold out shows(i assume). if its 300 then increase $ value by 20%? 

[Porthos]

On 3/24/2021 at 11:33 PM, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	15	119	3208	5328	2120	39.79%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	544*
Total Seats Sold Today	182

*NOTE: If Fandango sales are accurate, the one theater in the region that has been approved by the state to move to a 50% (or 200 people, whichever is fewer) cap, has done so.  As such I have increased the number of seats available at that theater from 224 seats to 448.   If Fandango is in error, I will revert the number of seats available for that theater in a future update.

Also, one theatre was giving me fits in trying to figure out their formula for how many seats they claim to have available before applying a cap.  I believe I have figured out their formula for all of their showings, resulting in an increase of 76 seats.  The other 244 seats added are from the four new showings added today.

 

====

 

T-7 Comp (lol [well, probably] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	210.32		102	1008		0/98	12732/13740	7.34%		13.25m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	50
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	6
Adjusted Seats Approximation	884

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	20	119	2950	5328	2378	44.63%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	5
Total Seats Sold Today	258

 

====

 

T-6 Comp (lol [well, probably] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	218.97		78	1086		0/98	12654/13740	7.90%		13.80m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	57
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	6
Adjusted Seats Approximation	996

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

13.80m

🎵nOt CrUmBlINg AnYmOrE.🎵

[Legion Again]

Good. Twice the comp, double the crumble.

[DAJK]

Is it just me or is the 6.6M predicted for Nobody a bit too high? Idk, I always thought it was going to cap out at ~3M or whatever the Neeson actioners did this season. Would love to be pleasantly surprised though.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Is it just me or is the 6.6M predicted for Nobody a bit too high? Idk, I always thought it was going to cap out at ~3M or whatever the Neeson actioners did this season. Would love to be pleasantly surprised though.

Even Chaos Walking got 3.7, I think Nobody should be over it given Eric's comp + CA reopening.