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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

LL is bombing though that's hardly the case in reality given its unique release strategy that already paid off. I wouldn't call the movie all-star cause the only star here is Channing. The rest of them may be known but they haven't been draws so far and I'm not sure if any of them is even an added value. Also, it's a type of a movie that actors do because they want to work with the director (a resume build) and not because they expect to set the BO on fire. 

For people that do not need the money (like James Bond craig) but for other it is a bit of gamble, if the movie do not work you get 0 (like a Blumhouse) I think people worked for scale on this.

 

They were mostly rich people that can take that hit too (and I imagine why it is such a big cast), that can take a chance to work for a director like that like you said. It release strategy still has to make any money.

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On 8/15/2017 at 3:19 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Despicable Me 3, The Lion King, and Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets are gone.

 

The Hitman's Bodyguard: 6 (Average)

Logan Lucky: 5 (Biggest)

 

The Dark Tower: 6 (Flat; 2nd Biggest and Average)

Annabelle: Creation: 5 (Flat; 2nd Biggest and Average)

Atomic Blonde: 5 (Flat; Average)

Dunkirk: 5 (Flat; Average)

The Emoji Movie: 5 (Flat and lost 3D; 4th Smallest)

Girls Trip: 5 (Flat; Average)

Kidnap: 5 (Flat; Average)

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature: 5 (Down 1 and lost 3D; 3rd and 2nd Smallest)

Spider-Man: Homecoming: 5 (Flat and lost 3D; Smallest)

War for the Planet of the Apes: 5 (Up 3; 3rd and 2nd Smallest)

Detroit: 1 (Down 4; Average)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Atomic Blonde, Detroit, Kidnap, and War for the Planet of the Apes are gone.

 

Leap!: 6 (Average)

All Saints: 5 (2nd Biggest and Average)

Birth of the Dragon: 5 (Average)

Terminator 2: Judgement Day 3D: 5 (Average)

Despicable Me 3: 4 (3rd Smallest)

Baby Driver: 2 (Smallest)

Wonder Woman: 2 (2nd Smallest)

 

Annabelle: Creation: 5 (2nd Biggest and Average)

The Hitman's Bodyguard: 5 (Down 1; Biggest)

Logan Lucky: 5 (Flat; 4th Smallest)

Spider-Man: Homecoming: 5 (Flat; Average)

Dunkirk: 3 (Down 2; 2nd Smallest)

The Emoji Movie: 3 (Down 2; Smallest)

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature: 3 (Down 2; Average)

The Dark Tower: 2 (Down 4; Average)

Girls Trip: 2 (Down 3; 3rd Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):

Spoiler

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

@DAJK @CJohn 8 movies are being shared across 4 screens here :ohmygod: 

 

Hopefully Ingrid Goes West and Wind River come next week (Good Time is coming to the theater 20 minutes away from me so I don't need to worry about that)

That is insane. Lots of movies doing nothing with the theater owners trying to get the best shows for each movie to maximize their potential.

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5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

That is insane. Lots of movies doing nothing with the theater owners trying to get the best shows for each movie to maximize their potential.

The Dunkirk/WW screen is the only one that alternates regularly instead of day/night. WW has the main night show.

 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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29 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Dunkirk/WW screen is the only one that alternates regularly instead of day/night. WW has the main night show.

 

:sparta: Smart move.

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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

50M is the official tracking, but Deadline says it could go up to 60M

I'm not trying to correct you Han, so please forgive me if it sounds that way... *but* this is a bit of a box office myth. There isn't an "official" tracking number per say (unless the studio declares it as such, but even then it can be debatable) although it is often called that by reporters. Anytime we see reports of tracking for a movie, it's simply the number calculated by or given to that outlet by independent trackers and analysts, and they're almost always using interest metrics (which are measured on a scale of 1 to 100) from firms like NRG to calculate -- or just guess -- a projected gross. NRG does not provide box office predictions though. That's why it's rare when everyone agrees on a single number for tracking (Wonder Woman was a great example of this), unless they're getting the same prediction from the same third party source.

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15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I'm not trying to correct you Han, so please forgive me if it sounds that way... *but* this is a bit of a box office myth. There isn't an "official" tracking number per say (unless the studio declares it as such, but even then it can be debatable) although it is often called that by reporters. Anytime we see reports of tracking for a movie, it's simply the number calculated by or given to that outlet by independent trackers and analysts, and they're almost always using interest metrics (which are measured on a scale of 1 to 100) from firms like NRG to calculate -- or just guess -- a projected gross. NRG does not provide box office predictions though. That's why it's rare when everyone agrees on a single number for tracking (Wonder Woman was a great example of this), unless they're getting the same prediction from the same third party source.

Thanks Shawn! Just to add onto this, how (in a sense) are these metrics polled? Is there ever a reason why some results are spot on and others are way off other than "movie genuinely underperformed" or had "unexpectedly awful WOM" etc etc. 

 

For example, a lot of people on this site are throwing around 70-80M+ predictions for It, and while we of course don't have the same resources as trackers, are there certain metrics that can point out and say "an 80M opening is just impossible" or do these numbers fluctuate regulairly?

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13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Thanks Shawn! Just to add onto this, how (in a sense) are these metrics polled? Is there ever a reason why some results are spot on and others are way off other than "movie genuinely underperformed" or had "unexpectedly awful WOM" etc etc. 

 

For example, a lot of people on this site are throwing around 70-80M+ predictions for It, and while we of course don't have the same resources as trackers, are there certain metrics that can point out and say "an 80M opening is just impossible" or do these numbers fluctuate regulairly?

I think alot of us here have a pretty good gauge on how a movie can open.  It takes a certain social-/psychological-/political feeling sometimes.  I have started reading through the BOP analysis archives (I did the BOG ones soo many times) and this part already caught my attention. 

 

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/hamann/sep3actuals.asp

"In Hollywood, huge money is invested trying to get a handle on how much cash will be spent over the weekend at the box office, and the big money this weekend was wrong, wrong, wrong. The studios pay research companies a pretty penny to gauge the marketplace, which helps the studios make marketing calls and provides estimates on how their films are looking to perform over the weekend. This weekend the trade paper The Hollywood Reporter said that Jeepers Creepers would not be seen by many peepers, and that the Lions Gate release "O" looked like the stronger film of the two, and boy, were they ever off.

Jeepers Creepers, the no-name, garden-variety teen horror film, blew away Labor Day records; it grossed an $15.83 million over the four day-long weekend. Previously, the highest Labor Day achiever was another bizarre choice; it was The Crow: City of Angels, which had a four-day haul of $9.79 million back in 1996. If August is a dumping ground for films, the Labor Day weekend is the landfill. Hollywood studios never want to gamble on Labor Day - the history of the holiday forbids it - but what they struggle to accept is that any film can open on any date if it's marketed correctly, and North American audiences want to see it. "

 

Edited by Matrix4You
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39 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I'm not trying to correct you Han, so please forgive me if it sounds that way... *but* this is a bit of a box office myth. There isn't an "official" tracking number per say (unless the studio declares it as such, but even then it can be debatable) although it is often called that by reporters. Anytime we see reports of tracking for a movie, it's simply the number calculated by or given to that outlet by independent trackers and analysts, and they're almost always using interest metrics (which are measured on a scale of 1 to 100) from firms like NRG to calculate -- or just guess -- a projected gross. NRG does not provide box office predictions though. That's why it's rare when everyone agrees on a single number for tracking (Wonder Woman was a great example of this), unless they're getting the same prediction from the same third party source.

Tracking still uses comps and release dates right, like they have the percentages for awareness and unaided awareness and first choice and all that, and compare those to other similar movies with similar release dates?  

 

So for example if "It" had say 75% across the board for all the indicators no one would give it the same tracking number that they would give if Star Trek Beyond had 75% across the board because of the release date, genre, etc.  Or am I way off here

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51 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Thanks Shawn! Just to add onto this, how (in a sense) are these metrics polled? Is there ever a reason why some results are spot on and others are way off other than "movie genuinely underperformed" or had "unexpectedly awful WOM" etc etc. 

 

For example, a lot of people on this site are throwing around 70-80M+ predictions for It, and while we of course don't have the same resources as trackers, are there certain metrics that can point out and say "an 80M opening is just impossible" or do these numbers fluctuate regulairly?

From what I understand they usually buy from an specialized external firm like Nielsen/NRG/etc...:

 

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/nrg-stagwell-mark-penn-1201641475/

NRG conducts over one million tracking survey interviews annually online and by mobile phones across the 13 largest movie markets around the world. It also conducts research through movie screenings, focus groups, exit surveys, ad/trailer testing and studies.

 

They keep data (First choice, top 3 choice, awareness, unaided awareness, Interest, etc...) for every movie they tracked (90 days before release, week before release, day before release) and by using that historic of variable with what the opening weekend ended up to be they build predictive formula using the variable (in a empirically way a bit like you do in excel in science class), they can look like those:

 

OW tracking by genre:
Family movie: 2,371,644 + (First Choice O/R 2 * 18,077) + (Definite Interest All 2 *15,594) + (Top 3 Choice All 2 * -10,150) + (Total Awareness 2 * 1,089)

Science Fiction : 2,147,711 + (Unaided Awareness * 517,422) + (First Choice O/R 2 * 28,064) + (Definite Interest All 2 * -7272) + (Top 3 Choice All 2 * 10,737) + (First Choice All 2 * -34,585)

Comedies with no rating: -2,855,969 + (First Choice O/R * 195,717) + (Total Awareness * 98,772) + (Definite Interest All * 183,375)

 

(those were used by the research group Troy in the Mexico market around 2010)

 

Something can be super important for Sci fi like unaided awareness (will you mention that movie if the pollster say nothing about it) and not even used in the formula for family movie (were parents just need to know that a kid movie is opening, they do not need to know what it is about or being fans of the concept like for Sci-fi)

 

That why movie with a lot of comparable in a recent pass or a really clean genre will tend to have a clearer tracking numbers, giant first weekend like Force Awaken with no previous comparable become wild prediction, stuff that they do not know if they should use their Superheroes or R-rated comedy formula like Deadpool become a crapshoot, Family movie or action SH for Wonder Woman ?.

 

For those you will often see 2-3 different numbers throw around, those people are probably made with pretty similar awareness/top choice numbers but using them in a different equation with some thinking that it will play like the bank of comparable movie X and other thinking that it will play closer to the bank of movie Y.

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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