The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Hokkaido MUTO]

For comparison what were the OD totals for Godzilla KOTM?

[Menor the Destroyer]

23 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Can’t tell if 150/130 we’re talking about is final PS or end of OD total sales.

It would be pretty much impossible to hit 150/130 by final PS. So it must be end of OD. 

13 minutes ago, Hokkaido MUTO said:

For comparison what were the OD totals for Godzilla KOTM?

We didn't have MTC scraping for KOTM. That was back when we got the data from akvalley's Fandango Pulse scraper.

 

Actually that weekend is quite nostalgic for me as it was the second weekend that I had been using Pulse to estimate the dailies during midday, and the first time I beat Deadline by quite a bit using that technique, calling it at 12-14 million when Deadline was saying 18 million true Friday. Good times.

Edited March 29, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

It would be pretty much impossible to hit 150/130 by final PS. So it must be end of OD. 

Oh yeah, today is Sun, so only 2 more days to go. Keyser’s T-3 notation was throwing me off, for e.g. China or SK I think we’d refer to this as the D-2 figure.

[charlie Jatinder]

I am personally thinking more around MTC 1 final of 140K in current lot of theater and 135-140K in MTC 2.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Oh yeah, today is Sun, so only 2 more days to go. Keyser’s T-3 notation was throwing me off, for e.g. China or SK I think we’d refer to this as the D-2 figure.

 

Well technically its T-2.5 days as it was only 4 PM Sunday in PST when the post was done.

Edited March 29, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am personally thinking more around MTC 1 final of 140K in current lot of theater and 135-140K in MTC 2.

 

I think the estimated gross is more important than the ticket number anyway given the big ATP difference between the two MTCs. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That would mean roughly $4.75M in MTC 1 & 2. In normalcy, that will be $13M Approx Nationwide but with Regal and almost all of Canada closed, should be around $9.1-9.5M.

 

+1-1.5M PWPs.

 

I don't know if it can hit 150K MTC 1 and 130K MTC2, but if they hit those, 10-11M OD shall happen.

 

Nah. More like 3.5m between the 2 MTC I am tracking. I am tracking almost all the shows. Normal for OD/previews is more than 35% at 2 MTC. I am expecting at least 50% and may be as much as 60% without Regal. That is why I am thinking 7-8m including PWP. 

Edited March 29, 2021 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Nah. More like 3.5m between the 2 MTC I am tracking. I am tracking almost all the shows

Yeah but the above numbers are only 322 MTC 1 no? There are 585 plus MTC open.

 

So say 140K in 322, will roughly means 235-255K. I am taking 235K or $3M.

 

MTC 2 is almost all of covered.

 

I remember during TROS, your MTC 1 coverage of gross was around 70% while MTC 2 was 95%. Theaters I think you mentioned 384 (63%) for MTC 1, out of 610 open for TROS. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think the estimated gross is more important than the ticket number anyway given the big ATP difference between the two MTCs. 

I take gross only, the discussion started with tickets, so...

[charlie Jatinder]

On SW9. We already have numbers but still here we go.

 

MTC1 OD  - overall 8298 shows 622027/1449506 8819836.69
MTC2 OD  - overall 6556 shows 497146/970155 5164783.00

 

 

MTC 1 TROS pure Friday was IIRC $12.5M. 

[charlie Jatinder]

TROS had roughly 22 shows per theater in MTC 1. I know that's like a big film, but in current situation when there is very little competition, GvK should have 15 atleast no, more so with limited capacity.

 

But current per theater count is only 8 per loc. A very good explanation will be that they are having 8 PWPs on average per loc

 

WW84 had 10K plus PWPs for weekend on 2.1K locs, 5 per loc. I suppose can expect 20K range on 3k locs for GvK for 5 days.

Edited March 29, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TROS had roughly 22 shows per theater in MTC 1. I know that's like a big film, but in current situation when there is very little competition, GvK should have 15 atleast no, more so with limited capacity.

 

But current per theater count is only 8 per loc.

I guess that’s the difference between school day Wed and winter Fri. More demand from 10-5 and after 9.  
 

GvK showings might also be constrained by cleaning policies, which seem to be ubiquitous despite being kind of silly.

 

The big question for GvK imo is how much that showings/loc can increase from the current value.

Edited March 29, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Eric Atreides]

On 3/26/2021 at 11:20 PM, Eric #TeamKong said:

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	24	57	1736	3634	47.77%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 163

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Seats Sold Today: 117

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	44	61	2615	3762	69.51%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 20

Total Seats Sold Today: 457

 

There's obviously still room for more shows, but this is a movie that's really hindered by those capacity limits. Guess that will encourage watching it on Max? I don't know!

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

I guess that’s the difference between school day Wed and winter Fri. More demand from 10-5 and after 9.  
 

GvK showings might also be constrained by cleaning policies, which seem to be ubiquitous despite being kind of silly.

 

The big question for GvK imo is how much that showings/loc can increase from the current value.

There are Spring breaks in USA no?

 

 

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah but the above numbers are only 322 MTC 1 no? There are 585 plus MTC open.

 

So say 140K in 322, will roughly means 235-255K. I am taking 235K or $3M.

 

MTC 2 is almost all of covered.

 

I remember during TROS, your MTC 1 coverage of gross was around 70% while MTC 2 was 95%. Theaters I think you mentioned 384 (63%) for MTC 1, out of 610 open for TROS. 

 

I am tracking all of them. Many of them are open only Friday to Sunday as I posted. Some of them dont have reserved seats. but BO from them are negligible IMO. I cover 595 theatres and so there is not much to extrapolate from what I track. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am tracking all of them. Many of them are open only Friday to Sunday as I posted. Some of them dont have reserved seats. but BO from them are negligible IMO. I cover 595 theatres and so there is not much to extrapolate from what I track. 

I think what he was saying is that, in the past, the theaters without reserved seating have contributed a nonnegligible amount to the BO. 

[TwoMisfits]

30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TROS had roughly 22 shows per theater in MTC 1. I know that's like a big film, but in current situation when there is very little competition, GvK should have 15 atleast no, more so with limited capacity.

 

But current per theater count is only 8 per loc. A very good explanation will be that they are having 8 PWPs on average per loc

 

WW84 had 10K plus PWPs for weekend on 2.1K locs, 5 per loc. I suppose can expect 20K range on 3k locs for GvK for 5 days.

 

Current shows/day per screen at my 2 Cinemarks on weekdays is 3 per day.  They run a 1pm, 4:30pm, and 8pm equivalents, and that's it.

 

In the past, you always (even on non-holiday weekdays) had a 10amish show and a 10pmish show, so most screens booked with movies under 2 hours and 30 minutes got 5 showings.

 

So, if the same number of screens are given to GvK, you'd have a 40% cut off the top in showings at most places.  So, if TROS had 22 shows, the Covid-era equivalent for a weekday for GvK would be 13 shows/day.

 

That said, my Cinemark 12s are up to 6 and 8 screens respectively for GvK (adding regular and PvPs) - not much rooms to grow, but other than PvPs (which both have sold out), they still do have tickets to sell.  But, the other 4 screens are not set (except for single showings of the 10 Commandments), so some growth is possible in count...

Edited March 29, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am tracking all of them. Many of them are open only Friday to Sunday as I posted. Some of them dont have reserved seats. but BO from them are negligible IMO. I cover 595 theatres and so there is not much to extrapolate from what I track. 

so what is the 322 figure you posted.

 

I mean yeah you are tracking 595 theaters but the current 67k number is from the 322 only right?

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think what he was saying is that, in the past, the theaters without reserved seating have contributed a nonnegligible amount to the BO. 

Yeah. I am repeating myself, but TROS grossed $12.5M in MTC 1 on ~600 theaters. Keyser system had 8.8M on ~380 theaters.

Edited March 29, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

There are Spring breaks in USA no?

 

 

Yeah, but it’s spread out with different districts all across country having at different weeks. Last week (that is to say, March 15-19) was the biggest spring break effect I think we’ll have this year in terms of districts overlapping. Not much break effect for GvK week I think, but see how Monday dailies come in I guess — esp for kids movies.

Edited March 29, 2021 by WandaLegion