The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, Menor said:

Not many of their theaters though. It is most of their big ones per the Deadline article sent by @Borobudur but not sure how much difference it will make. 

 

Some interesting tidbits from that article: For @Porthos, it says GvK is playing in 3000 theaters. It also says that GvK has beaten WW84's PWP number already with over 10,000 booked. Now being "over 10,000" was expected, but as I think WW84 had more than 10,000 overall (given that WW84 was reported to have 10,000 on Dec 21) being ahead of WW84 is good. 

 

Not sure whether to take Deadline tracking seriously or just Deadline being Deadline. As I recall the trades were saying something like 5 to 7 million for WW84. 

PWP is probably for whole weekend and not just OD. That is just not possible based on what I see. Full weekend its for sure as friday/saturday PWP numbers are way higher. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bottom line is comparing with pre covid releases has no useful purpose at this point, Sorry @Porthos

I am putting up warnings on the comp for a reason, you know.   It's more a What If intellectual curiosity at this point more than anything else.

 

Also if I didn't put in a compare/contrast, folks would ask so might as well put it in there and let people adjust however the heck they want.

[keysersoze123]

49 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'm very biased of course, but I don't think it's that hard. Just need the MTC 1/2 share to be a bit lower than Keyser estimates on OD (so it can get more like 11 million than 8-9 million), then spillover + higher show count on weekend + more theaters playing the film + hopefully good WOM should carry it to a nice IM. 

Yeah but only a sample of Regal, not many theaters. 

 

Ok looking at regal site only 22 theatres are opening this week. They have reopening plans all the way into late May. It looks like GvK will have limited help with Regal opening. Rough math it will add around 1 million to the BO this weekend. 

[TwoMisfits]

So, I haven't done a theater set in a long time, but with the clear out GvK is getting this week at my Cinemarks, it seems like a good time...

 

Cinemark 1 (the normal tracked theater)

NEW

GvK - 4 screens - 13 showings (all 2d)

PvP - 2.3 screens - 7 showings (all sold out)

10 Commandments - .4 screens - 1 showing

 

RETURNING

Nobody - 1.3 screens - 4 showings

Tom & Jerry - 1 screen - 3 showings

The Courier - 1 screen - 3 showings

Rang De - 1 screen - 3 showings

 

1 screen is still unbooked - I'm assuming they'll give it to PvP if someone is willing to pay premium, or they'll chuck it to GvK for Wed since it's for The Unholy on Fri...

 

GONE

Chaos Walking, 4 Indian titles

 

Cinemark 2 (the new tracker) - PS - Moved opening up to 12pm, so GvK could have some 12pm showings without adding screens and totally cleared out for GvK

 

NEW 

GvK - 4 screens, 14 showings - 6 premium, 8 2d

PvP - now 4.7 screens, 15 showings - ALL SOLD OUT (I said if they added another full screen, they'd sell it, and it's already gone)

10 Commandments - .3 screen - 1 showing

 

RETURNING

Nobody - 1.7 screens, 6 showings (another early 12pm show gets this one the ability to have a prime one stolen for the single showing movies)

Tom & Jerry - 1 screen, 3 showings

Violet Evergarden the Movie - .3 screen - 1 showing

 

GONE

Chaos Walking, The Courier, a few Indian titles, and all Comeback Classics (they had a few)

 

The Unholy gets a screen Friday from PvP:)...

Edited March 30, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Menor the Destroyer]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

PWP is probably for whole weekend and not just OD. That is just not possible based on what I see. Full weekend its for sure as friday/saturday PWP numbers are way higher. 

Definitely it's for the full weekend. That said I am a bit suspicious of the Fri/Sat PWP numbers as I have been for a while. Even at the beginning of presales Fri/Sat had more PWPs sold which seems to indicate that many of those are non-GvK. 

[Borobudur]

@Menor@WandaLegion@Porthos @keysersoze123and the rest.

 

Updated with L.A. County cleared to move to 50% capacity at cinemas:

https://deadline.com/2021/03/godzilla-vs-kong-opening-weekend-box-office-record-1234724112/

After the posting of this story, L.A. and Orange Counties were among eight regions progressing to the Orange tier, which means movie theaters can operate at 50% capacity. We’ll know after the 3PM press conference today if that goes into effect as early as tomorrow. If so, even more great news for Godzilla vs. Kong.

 

 

Not sure if this is a finalized decision but seem like they are expecting it to be official after 3pm

Edited March 30, 2021 by Borobudur

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

800

3173

25.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

500

2451

20.40%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2962	474	18042	16.42%	9	115

Showings added: 15

Seats added: 899

 

$150 PWPs: 20(+1)

$200 PWPs: 4

$250 PWPs: 3

$300 PWPs: 13

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

954

3210

29.72%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

593

2537

23.37%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3812	850	19803	19.25%	9	123

Showings added: 8

Seats added: 1761

 

$150 PWPs: 20

$200 PWPs: 4

$250 PWPs: 4(+1)

$300 PWPs: 13

 

I'll do another update later tonight with some kind of adjusted Far From Home comp.

Edited March 30, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[keysersoze123]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-2)

MTC1 - 82090/472097 1097985.00 2640 shows(322 theatres) +11935 //144 shows have not sold any tickets and 610  sellouts

MTC2 -  77527/484315 858203.16 3273 shows(293 theatres) +10547 // 290 shows have not sold any tickets and  328 sellouts

 

PWP MTC1 has 903(+61) sellouts while MTC2 has 1608(+66) sellouts.

 

Another solid increase of close to 40% from yesterday. I expected MTC1 to move faster than MTC2 but both of them are keeping pace and so final difference may be only 10K between the two. Average ticket price will keep going down as premium formats have sold out in many places as well. PWP is looking like 1 million OD. 

 

 

Godzilla vs Kong (T-1)

MTC1 -  98179/514989 1285424.00 3030 shows(322 theatres) +16089 // 195 shows have not sold any tickets and 815(+205) sellouts

MTC2 -  94470/556644 1034663.48 3995 shows(293 theatres) +16943 //402 shows have not sold any tickets and 429(+101) sellouts

 

PWP MTC1 has 985(+82) sellouts while MTC2 has 1713(+101) sellouts. 

 

Show counts shot up big time. Also data is for just 20 hours and that makes it super impressive. what is missing from $ value is 145 sellouts in non reserved theaters. That could add another 200K(this is a guesstimate). So its ~ 2.5 million between the 2 MTC without PWP.  There is also another 158 non reserved shows which I cannot track. I think it will end up higher in the 2 MTC than what I thought. I am thinking 4-4.5m at this point(300K+ seats sold between the 2 MTC). But I think this will be much bigger market share as well as I am tracking lot more shows than what I did previously. Still based on the I will bump up my OD to 9-10m. 

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

@Menor@WandaLegion@Porthos @keysersoze123and the rest.

 

Updated with L.A. County cleared to move to 50% capacity at cinemas:

https://deadline.com/2021/03/godzilla-vs-kong-opening-weekend-box-office-record-1234724112/

After the posting of this story, L.A. and Orange Counties were among eight regions progressing to the Orange tier, which means movie theaters can operate at 50% capacity. We’ll know after the 3PM press conference today if that goes into effect as early as tomorrow. If so, even more great news for Godzilla vs. Kong.

 

 

Not sure if this is a finalized decision but seem like they are expecting it to be official after 3pm

Just in time for the fourth wave. 

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Just in time for the fourth wave. 

If Israel situation is any guide, the reopening should have some contribution to the fourth wave but the spread hardly gain significant momentum or at least slower than the previous surge. Once more people keep getting vaccine, the surge will eventually crushed just like how they are experiencing now.

[keysersoze123]

22 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

@Menor@WandaLegion@Porthos @keysersoze123and the rest.

 

Updated with L.A. County cleared to move to 50% capacity at cinemas:

https://deadline.com/2021/03/godzilla-vs-kong-opening-weekend-box-office-record-1234724112/

After the posting of this story, L.A. and Orange Counties were among eight regions progressing to the Orange tier, which means movie theaters can operate at 50% capacity. We’ll know after the 3PM press conference today if that goes into effect as early as tomorrow. If so, even more great news for Godzilla vs. Kong.

 

 

Not sure if this is a finalized decision but seem like they are expecting it to be official after 3pm

That is good news but not sure it will have any impact for tomorrow. I will know if anything changes. For now no LA theatres are in Top 10 and no show has sold 100 tickets( it stops at 25% for now). But might help weekend shows but there is work on part of theatres to open up shows already listed as sellouts. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Still based on the I will bump up my OD to 9-10m. 

 

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

0.5789 * $18.18 = 10.53m 

 

Huh.  Could be, could be.  Might keep this formula in my back pocket if I feel courageous enough to try to make a projection off of Wed numbers. 

 

 

  

 

And a for good measure.  

 

====

 

FWIW, it was Cinemark absolutely exploding in showtimes locally yesterday which made me think that there might just be room for growth.  Don't think capacity caps will be the real issue, or at least not as much as it was going to be.

 

Prob still sub-10m, but I had to laugh a little that my pulled-from-my-ass ad-hoc reasoning is somewhat close to your data.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

If Israel situation is any guide, the reopening should have some contribution to the fourth wave but the spread hardly gain significant momentum or at least slower than the previous surge. Once more people keep getting vaccine, the surge will eventually crushed just like how they are experiencing now.

I was being a tad fatalistic/gallows humor, ftr. 

 

My only real worry is how Pfizer/Moderna actually work in the Real World when it comes to the South African variant, as some of the clinical trials aren't exactly promising.  Jury is still really out on that though, so we'll see.

 

But as much as I like to track box office data, I'd be lying if I said that I didn't wish my local governor waited just one more month before loosening guidelines.  Just...  One more month would have been better, IMO.

 

Not much I can do about it, so might as well track/analyze what I can even with the occasional misgiving.

[keysersoze123]

FYI Arclight theatres are still closed as well. They have monster screen(Arclight Hollywood)  with almost 1000 seats and used to be super busy for blockbusters. It appears the chain operate 300 screens and mostly in mega cities(LA being the biggest by far). Also I hear Alamo Drafthouse has declared bankruptcy :-( They are open in texas in limited capacity but SF location is closed. More and more I think the MTC share could be bigger than my initial thought. But limited capacity in NY will have huge impact on MTC1 share as well. May be it balances out.  :-)

[Legion Again]

28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just in time for the fourth wave. 

Not in Cali 😁

[john2000]

i say 50 million in 5 days

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Just in time for the fourth wave. 

Fourth...we are just starting our third.....sigh....

[keysersoze123]

Godzilla vs Kong Day 2

MTC1 -  34625/448970 496213.00 2433 shows(314 theatres) // 515 shows have not sold any tickets and 178 sellouts

MTC2 -  33840/503471 380908.24 3535 shows(293 theatres) // 1173 shows have not sold any tickets and 99 sellouts

 

PWP MTC1 has 878 sellouts while MTC2 has 1317 sellouts. 

 

PWP number for MTC1 is almost the same level as OD. MTC2 is about 25% lower. Of course BO for the 2nd day is down 65% from OD. it has another day of presales but I expect a big drop(40% +) on day 2. Take that into account while extrapolating the weekend. Also based on @Menor I am not sure what % of PWP can be attributed to GVK. We can only guess. 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

i say 50 million in 5 days

I’ll go with $36-39m.

[Legion Again]

We have very little context domestically for schoolday D2 sales being 35% of D1 near the end of PS run (really a bit better since PWPs). But internationally I would consider that very healthy.    
 

Also wouldn’t BW surprised if an unusually high number of people try to walk up to sold out showings on OD and some of them spillover into D2.