The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Thanks Shawn! Just to add onto this, how (in a sense) are these metrics polled? Is there ever a reason why some results are spot on and others are way off other than "movie genuinely underperformed" or had "unexpectedly awful WOM" etc etc. 

 

For example, a lot of people on this site are throwing around 70-80M+ predictions for It, and while we of course don't have the same resources as trackers, are there certain metrics that can point out and say "an 80M opening is just impossible" or do these numbers fluctuate regulairly?

Regarding the polling, I think a few other people alluded to my answer here already, but most commonly it happens through surveys (in person, over the phone, etc.). It just depends on the research firm and each of their own methods. Of course, now we have the social media factor which is a huge part of the equation. That's where the likes of Boxoffice.com (shameless plug/full disclosure on my part, heh), comScore, and others have expanded the definition of what "tracking" even is. In a lot of cases, I do think there are specific reasons why results are accurate or way off the mark -- it could be anything from not using relevant comps across "traditional" tracking to ignoring the details of social media trends (high volume of mentions/convos does not always equal positive buzz, nor does a low number always equal poor buzz), etc. But there are still times when the science of it all just misses something. Sometimes gut feelings and having an eye for what's going to make for a good or bad movie win the day.

 

As for IT, that's definitely an interesting example. To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if it does hit the $60-70m range because it seems like the kind of movie that could transcend its genre and attract a wide age range. I'm sure you and most here know it's been a big social media performer with each trailer release, so that helps. But it's still an R-rated horror film in September... so it's hard to blame anyone saying that kind of opening won't happen. This is where I think it's important to clearly define what the threshold for success and "under-performance" are though, because it can open to half that amount and still be a huge success (especially if WOM/reviews are strong).

 

From what I've seen, I definitely think there's a growing argument for IT to break out. I tend to view tracking and forecasts like stock movements. Until the day the product is finally available, there are going to be incremental shifts in its speculative value dependent upon a lot of other factors, some of which can't always be predicted (example: A Dog's Purpose and the video leak).

1 hour ago, MattW said:

Tracking still uses comps and release dates right, like they have the percentages for awareness and unaided awareness and first choice and all that, and compare those to other similar movies with similar release dates?  

 

So for example if "It" had say 75% across the board for all the indicators no one would give it the same tracking number that they would give if Star Trek Beyond had 75% across the board because of the release date, genre, etc.  Or am I way off here

Oh yes, comps and release dates are pretty common for everyone to use with tracking. The rub of it all comes when each person/company may disagree and use different comps. Data is invaluable, but paralysis by analysis is real. There are still times when a gut feeling and/or sheer years of experience come into play on some level. Some look at a Doctor Strange and see another Ant-Man, where someone else sees Guardians 1 or something else. LEGO Batman was another interesting example of something that was tracking similar to/ahead of similar movies that opened higher than it eventually did. That's why no one ever gets it right 100% of the time. When high profile movies like Dark Tower and Emoji Movie come along with zero reviews or reliable screening buzz until the day before release, it creates even more of a headache. Again... that's where social media becomes powerful nowadays and can completely overrule what had been valid, defensible tracking metrics up until the final hours before release. (Or, for something rare like Suicide Squad, the pedigree of the franchise can overcome poor reviews and still do incredibly well.)

 

But yes, as far as my personal take goes, I definitely wouldn't compare something like It to Star Trek Beyond even if they had nearly identical scores. You're very correct there, in my own opinion. Personally, I'm looking at a variety of movies right now ranging from the Conjuring and Insidious movies to something more outside the box like Super 8, which had a huge nostalgia factor similar to IT. The problem is there aren't many recent comps that combine horror with nostalgia, which is why I think we're seeing such a wide range from tracking. It's a shame we don't have tracking metrics for Stranger Things that would be relevant and comparable to a theatrical release because that's exactly the audience I feel like It is going for... which could be a brilliant move.

[WrathOfHan]

Thanks for the info Shawn! now raise the mother! prediction

[WrathOfHan]

Interesting: BD is returning to the Altamonte Mall AMC with only 2 Dolby Cinema showings (THB has 2 Dolby showings too). I wonder if other theaters will only do some of these re-expansions in PLF

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Interesting: BD is returning to the Altamonte Mall AMC with only 2 Dolby Cinema showings (THB has 2 Dolby showings too). I wonder if other theaters will only do some of these re-expansions in PLF

It's coming back to a few theaters around me too.

 

I also see 47 Meters Down is coming back to one multiplex lmao. Man, take back what I said earlier about theaters being merely desperate, they're super desperate.

[nomyth]

IT is now on Pulse! First count has it at 154 occurrences over 10 minutes (which is almost 3x where AC was on the Mon before it's release). Surprised it's not in the top 5 already but I expect that to happen soon enough.

Edited August 23, 2017 by nomyth

[Rumpot]

10 minutes ago, nomyth said:

IT is now on Pulse! First count has it at 154 occurrences over 10 minutes (which is almost 3x where AC was on the Mon before it's release). Surprised it's not in the top 5 already but I expect that to happen soon enough.

Wow. This is selling like crazy

[Mockingjay Raphael]

IT is appearing A LOT on Pulse, it's going to be on Top 5 before the end of the day. 

 

I never saw something like this for a Horror movie, it's almost on par with SH movies, or this is going to be extremely front-loaded, or it's about to over-perform on a big way.

[XO21]

Its numbers should skewed since this weekend is very likely to be the lowest in 3/4 years -I think-

Edited August 23, 2017 by XO21

[filmlover]

Yeah, I wouldn't read much into IT conquering on the movie charts yet when nothing that's out right now is selling.

 

Meanwhile, LAT tracking for this weekend: http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-movie-projector-20170822-htmlstory.html

 

Leap: $5-7M

Birth of the Dragon: $3.25M

Nothing for All Saints

 

[Nova]

You also have to take into account that IT Tickets just went on sale so of course it's going to be selling like crazy. 

 

Its still going to have a massive opening. $60M is the minimum it's making OW. 

[Boxofficerules]

IT is number 3 on Pulse right now.

[Premium George]

Nomyth is counting tickets sold in a duration of time and not the charts. I don't think that can be skewed by low competition. 150 in 10 min is crazy good.

[Hiccup23]

No presales at my theater yet. A very barren weekend but this weekend and next weekend should help out some of those summer films that struggled with legs (Apes, Spiderman, Dark Tower)

[Mojoguy]

Wonder Woman is BACK at my local nonImax movie theater starting this Friday!

I'm totally going to see it again!

[YM!]

Note: at my local IMAX, I checked Inhumans presales and only 4 tickets were sold.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

1 hour ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Nomyth is counting tickets sold in a duration of time and not the charts. I don't think that can be skewed by low competition. 150 in 10 min is crazy good.

Exactly, we're not talking about rankings, we're talking about tickets being sold, IT is currently selling 16 tickets per minute, just for comparison, Annabelle: Creation didn't reach this pace until Thursday before previews. 

[That One Girl]

IT is #2 on Pulse.  You can say what you want to minimize how fucking good that is more than 2 weeks away from release, but it's fucking great for a non CBM

[MCKillswitch123]

Even for a comic book movie, being #2 on Pulse these many weeks off release is pretty great. For an R-rated horror release in September like It.... that just tells me that this thing is about to take the box office by storm.

 

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, I wouldn't read much into IT conquering on the movie charts yet when nothing that's out right now is selling.

 

Meanwhile, LAT tracking for this weekend: http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-movie-projector-20170822-htmlstory.html

 

Leap: $5-7M

Birth of the Dragon: $3.25M

Nothing for All Saints

 

So is it safe to say that Hitman's Bodyguard can drop maybe 35-40%? It already overperformed against modest expectations on OW, wom seems pretty solid, and it has tumbleweeds for competition.

[That One Girl]

What It is about to do to the box office:

 

[JB33]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, I wouldn't read much into IT conquering on the movie charts yet when nothing that's out right now is selling.

 

Meanwhile, LAT tracking for this weekend: http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-movie-projector-20170822-htmlstory.html

 

Leap: $5-7M

Birth of the Dragon: $3.25M

Nothing for All Saints

 

LOL, an epic two weekends coming up. I'm all strapped in!!