The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

I think friday expectations are too high. PS was still down from OD. Obviously walk ups will be much better but 50% higher will require 600K sales. That will need 370K walk ups. That is too much. Not during COVID for sure. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Optimistic

9.6 6.8 16 16 11 = 59.4

9.6 6.8 15 17 12 = 60.4

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think friday expectations are too high. PS was still down from OD. Obviously walk ups will be much better but 50% higher will require 600K sales. That will need 370K walk ups. That is too much. Not during COVID for sure. 

Yeah this is an optimistic prediction. Personally I think more like 13-13.5 but let's see. To be fair weekend walkups should be much higher than a weekday OD in normal times, though as you say COVID may change that to an extent. 

Edited April 2, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

9.6 6.8 15 17 12 = 60.4

If $60M come to be that will be really really special, though I don't think Saturday will increase much if at all from GF.

 

However, if you had made $70M 7 days, that would be pretty likely.

[Cookson]

Boy these 5 day estimates are pretty crazy for this environment! I love it! It’ll be interesting how the holds are from week to week. This is looking to beat KotM domestically 

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

I’m curious, do they post single day actuals? Or is 9.6 the definitive final number for Wednesday?

[keysersoze123]

30 minutes ago, ReturnOfTheBoxOffice said:

I’m curious, do they post single day actuals? Or is 9.6 the definitive final number for Wednesday?

its not actuals. Just deadline reporting from comscore data. We will probably get only weekend actuals. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its not actuals. Just deadline reporting from comscore data. We will probably get only weekend actuals. 

Naa those are actuals. WB reported $9.6M.

 

I will check if I can get or if comScore is showing data now.

 

Edited April 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

It’s not actuals (which would be like, $9,587,139 or whatever). We don’t get actuals from WB anymore.  
 

But it’s not just Deadline cobbling some guess together from industry sources either. 
 

It’s an official estimate, could get updated later on to 9.5 or 9.7 or something but I din’t expect they will.

Edited April 2, 2021 by WandaLegion

[keysersoze123]

I might not be able to update MTC2 tonight. Will provide update for MTC1 and rough projections for MTC2. I will update tomorrow morning. 

[keysersoze123]

GVK Day 2 End

MTC1 - 131131/541981 1616445.00 3260 shows(322 theatres) // 1260 sellouts and 1011 PWP shows sellouts. 

MTC2 - 138882/613797 1461597.60 4608 shows(293 theatres)   // 510 sellouts and 1566 PWP shows sellouts

 

Including non reserved I would say 3.2 m finish and so I am predicting ~ 6m minus PWP. Probably around 6.7m including PWP. 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2021 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

I will provide final PS for Day 3 tomorrow morning but indications are its finishing like 15% below OD PS finish and about 65% above Day 2 PS finish. Good night folks :-)

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

GVK Day 2 End

MTC1 - 131131/541981 1616445.00 3260 shows(322 theatres) // 1260 sellouts and 1011 PWP shows sellouts. 

MTC2 (Estimate) ~ 135K - 1.4M 4701 shows(293 theatres)   // 510 sellouts and 1566 PWP shows sellouts

 

Including non reserved I would say 3.2 m finish and so I am predicting ~ 6m minus PWP. Probably around 6.7m including PWP. 

 

I will update this post with actual MTC data tomorrow morning. 

 

Edit: Just to reiterate, I have no clue how many of the PWP was for GVK. It should be majority but according to @Menor some of the PWP sellouts were there a while back as well. 

That was for the weekend PWPs. Day 2 should be mostly GvK. 

[keysersoze123]

GVK Day 3 PS END

MTC1 - 99360/889792 1203370.00 4912 shows(428 theatres) // sellouts let me confirm later

MTC2 - 91985/724238 1029300.71 5010 shows(293 theatres) //  298 sold out shows

 

PWP -  MTC1 - 1837 sellouts and MTC2 - 2501 sellouts

 

PS finished at lower run rate than OD. it finished around 21% below OD PS and 54% above. Let us see how much it makes up with walk ups. I feel 10m friday is more likely than 15m. But let us take stock sometime this afternoon.  PWP numbers are way higher and let us hope most are for GVK. 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

GVK Day 3 PS END

MTC1 - 99360/889792 1203370.00 4912 shows(428 theatres) // sellouts let me confirm later

MTC2 - 91985/724238 1029300.71 5010 shows(293 theatres) //  298 sold out shows

 

PWP -  MTC1 - 1837 sellouts and MTC2 - 2501 sellouts

 

PS finished at lower run rate than OD. it finished around 21% below OD PS and 54% above. Let us see how much it makes up with walk ups. I feel 10m friday is more likely than 15m. But let us take stock sometime this afternoon.  PWP numbers are way higher and let us hope most are for GVK. 

 

 

Yeah that is not that encouraging of a PS finish. Probably 10-11 is more likely than 15. I think it can hit 12 though, being 54% ahead of yesterday, which will already give 10, then probably better walkups. 

Edited April 2, 2021 by Menor

[titanic2187]

Will WB give us another daily estimate? 

[charlie Jatinder]

comScore is posting numbers but now removed. A friend checked it at $6.6M in morning, so $6.7-6.8M actual but its removed now.

[Legion Again]

So we expect the without PWP numbers were what, ballpark 8.6 D1 and 6 D2? That’s a 30% drop, PS were down roughly 49% so PSm up about 36%.  
 

I think PSm for D3 can be some 50-70% up from OD* with more screenings and fewer capacity issues, would be 10-11.5 sans PWP maybe 11-13 actual.  
 

 

*That’s 10-25% up from D2. Maybe it can go even higher being a holiday and weekend eve, but there are also some factors working against too much PSm growth — namely, higher PS.

Edited April 2, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Legion Again]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Probably around 6.7m including PWP. 

 

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

so $6.7-6.8M actual but its removed now

[charlie Jatinder]

Considering PSm for two days gone by was less than normal because of capacity issue. That shouldn't  be that big issue today, so we may get closer to normal PSm.

 

We are still no where near "normal" PSm due to restricted capacity. 

[charlie Jatinder]

I am having mild head ache so sleeping early, if numbers are shown on CS I expect RTH to drop by today or Deadline will do something. My account is not yet reactivated else I would have checked.

 

If nobody post anything, not an issue as MTC trackers models are working quite well, whatever calculation model Keyser or myself using.