The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

WOW. Almost on the dot. I guess the "sampling size" is so big its not hard. 

 

Anyway this is friday and there will be close to 11K shows at 2 MTC alone which will probably be 45% of capacity but around 55% of BO. Hope it has much better walk ups due to increased capacity. What ever happens this movie has out performed HUGE considering its a movie that can be seen in streaming at high quality. 

[titanic2187]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

WOW. Almost on the dot. I guess the "sampling size" is so big its not hard. 

 

Anyway this is friday and there will be close to 11K shows at 2 MTC alone which will probably be 45% of capacity but around 55% of BO. Hope it has much better walk ups due to increased capacity. What ever happens this movie has out performed HUGE considering its a movie that can be seen in streaming at high quality. 

Wednesday PTA is about 4000 with 2400+ theaters, I don't think it is too much to ask for 10% growth in PTA with 3064 theaters, with that Friday number will be at 13.5m.  

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Was bored and messing around with Inspect Element on Chrome, and found a faster way to count seats sold. So I did a count for GvK for today. 2508 tickets sold for Denver so far. Don’t have anything to compare it to because my final count for Wednesday was done Tuesday night at 10. But I guess I’ll do a count tomorrow and maybe Saturday too

3326 tickets sold for Denver so far today. Straight up comp suggests 8.89M. But note that Denver’s theaters have been open all week, none are only open on the weekends. There’s 50%+ capacity here. So, I think getting close to OD for a Denver comp is quite good considering all the factors. 

Using some guesswork to account for 600 more theaters, increased PWPs, and presumably stronger walkups, I think this will land high 10s-low 11s.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Wednesday PTA is about 4000 with 2400+ theaters, I don't think it is too much to ask for 10% growth in PTA with 3064 theaters, with that Friday number will be at 13.5m.  

But not all theatres are the same. Ones that are expanding are in smaller markets with lower ticket prices. so PTA could go down with higher theatre count. Anyway let us wait and see. I will be surprised with 13.5m from the PS seen so far. Let us hope for the best. 

[keysersoze123]

Quick update. Just checked MTC1 and its at 165403/929085 1801229.00 (5388 shows). MTC2 I have data just before noon at 116850/740547 1272496.25 (5182 shows). My system is super slow and so the run is taking for ever. 

 

I am expecting it to grow big with walk ups. Show counts are huge. Even non reserved show count is 1500+ shows at MTC1. Though they may not make huge difference to BO, overall I am hoping for somewhere around 500K combined between the 2 MTC for reserved shows. I think ratio will also be lower as there are more shows overall. I would say minus PWP, it should at least double the number I get. Let us see how things go. I may not be able to get final number by night but will try to project with partial data. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Quick update. Just checked MTC1 and its at 165403/929085 1801229.00 (5388 shows). MTC2 I have data just before noon at 116850/740547 1272496.25 (5182 shows). My system is super slow and so the run is taking for ever. 

 

I am expecting it to grow big with walk ups. Show counts are huge. Even non reserved show count is 1500+ shows at MTC1. Though they may not make huge difference to BO, overall I am hoping for somewhere around 500K combined between the 2 MTC for reserved shows. I think ratio will also be lower as there are more shows overall. I would say minus PWP, it should at least double the number I get. Let us see how things go. I may not be able to get final number by night but will try to project with partial data. 

Should go well past OD at MTC1 then, as it has already nearly caught up to the comparable number. MTC2 it's harder to say. At this stage I would say 11.5-12 is my guess for Friday. 470k between the 2 MTCs yielding 10.3ish million minus PWPs, then depending on how much of today's PWPs are actually for GvK. 

Edited April 2, 2021 by Menor

[Tinalera]

Ill be interested to see not just this film but next few films going forward. Im wondering how much of Zilla/Kong is people wanting to see if for the actual film and how many people are going out to the theatres just because they can and they're really want to experience the movie going experience they've been denied so long. 

 

I think it will be fascinating to watch to see the next few movie openings if the numbers keep consistent and/or theres a drop off  as moving going becomes "normal" again (though with limited seating for the forseeable future I certainly see a lot of full screens and sellouts due to simple reduced seating.

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

2 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Ill be interested to see not just this film but next few films going forward. Im wondering how much of Zilla/Kong is people wanting to see if for the actual film and how many people are going out to the theatres just because they can and they're really want to experience the movie going experience they've been denied so long. 

 

I think it will be fascinating to watch to see the next few movie openings if the numbers keep consistent and/or theres a drop off  as moving going becomes "normal" again (though with limited seating for the forseeable future I certainly see a lot of full screens and sellouts due to simple reduced seating.

Not to mention Godzilla vs Kong is a film that was tailor made to be seen on the big screen. What happens to a movie that doesn’t have 2 big monsters beating each other and you can also watch it at home same day?

[charlie Jatinder]

MTC 2 numbers are just ehh today. MTC 1 ATP is down considerably as well. I am waiting to see if I get cS numbers. Currently thinking around 10-10.5M ish (200k MTC 1 and 150k MTC 2).

[Menor the Destroyer]

34 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MTC 2 numbers are just ehh today. MTC 1 ATP is down considerably as well. I am waiting to see if I get cS numbers. Currently thinking around 10-10.5M ish (200k MTC 1 and 150k MTC 2).

Just 200 and 150k would require night walkups to be lower than an OD weeknight. That would be quite shocking to me. 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Just 200 and 150k would require night walkups to be lower than an OD weeknight. That would be quite shocking to me. 

MTC 1 can go higher but MTC 2 isn't looking that encouraging. But may be 210-165.

Edited April 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MTC 1 can go higher but MTC 2 isn't looking that encouraging. But may be 210-165.

That’s sad. I was hoping 13+, at worst 11. 10-10.5 wouldn’t be the end of the world, but would definitely be a bit of a downer.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

MTC 1 can go higher but MTC 2 isn't looking that encouraging. But may be 210-165.

Just before 6PM Pacific MTC1 already above 210K. Should finish around 230-240K. MTC2 run was a while back. It takes too long. I will update before end of day hopefully. Generally MTC2 does well with walk ups but show increase compared to yesterday is that much in MTC2. At MTC1 we are looking at 55% show increase with 105 more theatres opening today. Its around 15% increase at MTC2. So the increase wont be that dramatic. Overall its good news as MTC1 ticket prices are higher. FYI MTC1 number is 210630/947227 2294995.00 (5593 shows 428 theatres). There seem to be tons of sellouts as well including at non reserved theatres. I think that boost will be higher today. I think MTC1 in itself will finish above 3m (may be even close to 3.5m). 

[Legion Again]

50+ seems rather tough. Need 33.7 3-day, 12+12.7+9 or something. Over 45 will be in the right ballpark, Fri at 10.5+ should do it.
 

Though with this Fri won’t be surprised if Sat bounce goes low double digits.

 

Edit: and 1 minute ago Keyser numbers bring a little more optimism. Basically should hit the 45-55 window.

Edited April 3, 2021 by WandaLegion

[keysersoze123]

GVK D4 PS update 430PM Pacific 

MTC1 - 101852/995565 1163915.00 (5575 shows 428 theatres) // 599 sellouts

MTC2 - 79685/786287 906598.25 5327 shows 293 theatres) // 222 sellouts

 

PWP - MTC 1 has 2108 sellouts and MTC2 has 3176 sellouts !!!

 

I will try to get data overnight for final PS. But its looking at a good increase. I expect 6000+ shows in MTC1 tomorrow and close to that at MTC2 as well. This is just reserved. Another 2K shows at MTC1 is possible at non reserved theatres as well. It  I think Zilla will increase tomorrow for sure. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Much bigger growth in MTC 1 then I expected. May be MTC 2 also follow suit. with 235-180, expecting $11-11.25M ish.

 

The guy I was expecting to get cS number ain't online yet. I hope he do soon. That will give an idea. Though considering Deadline hasn't wrote anything yet, could very well means numbers aren't shown.

Edited April 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

That said MTC2 seem to be underperforming today. Probably will finish below Day 1. Overall could be still higher as MTC1 will pick up stack. Plus hopefully all Regal locations did gangbusters and smaller chains also did well, BO still could be higher. I am hoping for 12m friday. But we dont want MTC2 to be way below OD for that to happen. 

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That said MTC2 seem to be underperforming today. Probably will finish below Day 1. Overall could be still higher as MTC1 will pick up stack. Plus hopefully all Regal locations did gangbusters and smaller chains also did well, BO still could be higher. I am hoping for 12m friday. But we dont want MTC2 to be way below OD for that to happen. 

I can only hope the underperforming of MTC2 is due to higher share of PWP....10-11m Friday just doesn't sound fun

[keysersoze123]

33 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I can only hope the underperforming of MTC2 is due to higher share of PWP....10-11m Friday just doesn't sound fun

I dont have final number but MTC2 looks like just squeezing past OD final.  But MTC1 is broken and so I dont have final number either. But it was going towards 15-20% increase from OD.  I am thinking 10.5-11M Friday(around 450K combined admits in tracked shows). But I am not 100% sure. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

If its 450K in 2 MTCs, it will be $10.25-10.5M excluding PWPs. PWPs may be $1.25-1.5M? 

 

11.5-12M.