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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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7 minutes ago, Menor said:

Doesn't seem flat to me. MTC 1/2 numbers last morning were significantly lower than these. It was like 2.2 million vs 2.68 million here. Remember that those numbers Keyser posted are from the morning, just only posted now.

Ohh. I thought he updated those morning numbers to now.

 

If those are morning numbers, well then it won't be flat and later part of my comment will be true.

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at just before 4PM at MTC1 - 199921/1029593 2035160.00 (5991 shows). I hope it can leg close to high 200s. MTC2 is taking for ever but pace is around 170K at this hour. I think 225K is possible. May be we are looking at 500K between 2 MTC. But there are another 2K shows in non reserved theaters. That could add another 5% or so.  We are may be looking at 13m saturday. 

 

Edit: at MTC2 sellouts are up from 385 in the morning to 914 now. So walkups are good. 

Edited by keysersoze123
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12 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think @WandaLegion said something like 9.5*5.2 for the 5-day on Monday or Tuesday, so props because that looks like it will be almost exactly on the dot. 

 

On 3/29/2021 at 2:26 PM, WandaLegion said:

Before I think I was in on like a 13*4.6ish kind of scenario. Now if it hits I expect more along the line of 11*5.5 (but actually eyeballing more along the lines of 9.5*5.2)

Ah, lol 😆  

 

Thanks for the reminder.

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

at just before 4PM at MTC1 - 199921/1029593 2035160.00 (5991 shows). I hope it can leg close to high 200s. MTC2 is taking for ever but pace is around 170K at this hour. I think 225K is possible. May be we are looking at 500K between 2 MTC. But there are another 2K shows in non reserved theaters. That could add another 5% or so.  We are may be looking at 13m saturday. 

 

Edit: at MTC2 sellouts are up from 385 in the morning to 914 now. So walkups are good. 

MTC2 was at 179289/844374 1959323.04(5831 shows)  530 Pacific. Let us hope for strong evenings west coast to take it above 230K. 

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GVK Sunday PS

MTC1 - 54540/870079 607682.00 4815 shows(419 theatres) // 223 sellouts

MTC2 - 42066/668632 444314.79 4601 shows(293 theatres) // 128 sellouts

 

PWP - MTC1 - 1508 MTC2 - 2093 sellouts

 

Obviously numbers are well down from yesterday. It has to rely on walk ups to have reasonable drop. 

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GVK Saturday End

MTC1 - 258502/1043040 2715237.00 6137 shows (428 theatres) 

MTC2 - 219937/849998 2432065.22 5831 shows (293 theatres)

 

Did not do that great with walk ups as I expected. Still its solid. This is missing data from theatres with non reserved seats as I mentioned earlier. I dont have final number for yesterday(had to project from partial run). But this is under 10% increase from yesterday and so it needs better increase at other chains and PWPs. For now will say 12.5m saturday. 

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9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

GVK Saturday End

MTC1 - 258502/1043040 2715237.00 6137 shows (428 theatres) 

MTC2 - 219937/849998 2432065.22 5831 shows (293 theatres)

 

Did not do that great with walk ups as I expected. Still its solid. This is missing data from theatres with non reserved seats as I mentioned earlier. I dont have final number for yesterday(had to project from partial run). But this is under 10% increase from yesterday and so it needs better increase at other chains and PWPs. For now will say 12.5m saturday. 

12.5m including PWP? at this rate, it may miss 50m 5 days.....

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Just now, Cookson said:

Forbes is saying this will be around 300m worldwide by Monday. Accurate? Seems really good if true. Legendary needs to figure a way to continue this series. 

It will/may cross $300M on Monday but the reasoning Idiot Mendelson gave is If China is 1.95x of its 1st weekend by 2nd Sunday, the overseas box office will be also be 1.95x i.e. $240M.

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19 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

If today PS are ~OD level, that’s roughly 25% up from Fri. Expecting mild PSm drop, similar PWP share, 5-15% gross increase for 12-13 day.

If it’s hitting ~12.5, walkups were normal.  
 

As for Sun, even BvS was just -33%. I think 8.3-8.7 is a pretty good expectation. 

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15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

GVK Sunday PS

MTC1 - 54540/870079 607682.00 4815 shows(419 theatres) // 223 sellouts

MTC2 - 42066/668632 444314.79 4601 shows(293 theatres) // 128 sellouts

 

PWP - MTC1 - 1508 MTC2 - 2093 sellouts

 

Obviously numbers are well down from yesterday. It has to rely on walk ups to have reasonable drop. 

Morning update

MTC1 - 65257/927217 703636.00 5396 shows(428 theatres) // 223 sellouts

MTC2 -  49924/706241 524100.01 5037 shows (294 theatres) // 178 sellouts

 

PWP - MTC2 is at 2127 sellouts. MTC1 does not have same day booking for PWP and so final update was yesterday. 

 

It looks like 10% drop in shows today. Obviously sellouts and PWP sales are way down (MTC1 is off like 40% from yesterday and MTC2 like 33%). Let us see where walk ups take it today. I think 35% drop is likely end at this time(around 300K finish between 2 MTC). 

 

But monday drop wont be pretty as again 25% of MTC1 theatres go offline during weekdays. So show count will be 50% off on weekdays. I am not planning to track weekdays for now. I dont have the bandwidth and this wont be interesting either. If its still looking interesting I will capture thursday data to get baseline to track friday/saturday BO. 

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Looking ahead: Disney doing the stream/theatre combo for Black Widow. Needless to say, theatres aren't happy.

 

https://www.cbr.com/black-widow-release-plans-upset-theaters/

 

I know back last year there was discussion on some forums like reddit that "Mulan is one thing, but no way Disney would stream Black Widow first day"

 

Theatres can threaten to not show films, that just improves Disney's leverage with the viewer though, because that will increase more scarce viewings, leading more people to watch it on Disney Plus, which is what Disney really wants IMO. 

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