The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[PKMLover]

48 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

IMO going for $5.5M previews but Friday def now looks like will beat Thu. 45 more REGAL theaters opening will reduce MTC 1 and MTC 2 ratio. Can see Fri hit $6-6.5M. Similarly Saturday seems uber strong. 

@WandaLegion you may get that number you said.

I think it maybe 5.5/6/6/3.5 (-40%) for a total of 21? 

@keysersoze

Edited April 22, 2021 by PKMLover

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

What about the Sun drop you expect for these 2 movies? Based on the current trend? 

Can DS Sat jump from Fri?

Yes DS SAT is certain to jump at this point. Sun DS drop may be smaller than MK.

[Borobudur]

So going by this pace, MK+DS would still likely to outgross GvK+Unholy (34.8m) even if we minus DS' preview. Domestic market can finally have a 50m total weekend. But still, Sunday number have been bad across the board since the start of the pandemic and constantly trend below that of Friday. Until then, the weekend total can hardly hit its upper limit.

[DAJK]

A Mortal Kombat breakout would be nice, but would probably also kill GvK's chances of surpassing KOTM domestically.

[Borobudur]

16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

A Mortal Kombat breakout would be nice, but would probably also kill GvK's chances of surpassing KOTM domestically.

I think Gvk chance to pass KOTM is basically dead, now even 100m total is in question unless it quickly stabilized. WB should really reconsider how they film hold up so bad compared to their peers. Nobody hit PVOD last week but still managed to post single-digit drop and Raya & Croods 2 were still doing great and they just chugging along with their streaming debut.

[marveldcfox]

52 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I think Gvk chance to pass KOTM is basically dead, now even 100m total is in question unless it quickly stabilized. WB should really reconsider how they film hold up so bad compared to their peers. Nobody hit PVOD last week but still managed to post single-digit drop and Raya & Croods 2 were still doing great and they just chugging along with their streaming debut.

Wom for GvK isn't good among general public. Fans dug it, but the casuals were like whatever. Frankly, it was always going to be a frontloaded movie like xmen series. Would have done 250ish after a 110+ OW in normal scenario.

Edited April 22, 2021 by marveldcfox

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

I think Gvk chance to pass KOTM is basically dead, now even 100m total is in question unless it quickly stabilized. WB should really reconsider how they film hold up so bad compared to their peers. Nobody hit PVOD last week but still managed to post single-digit drop and Raya & Croods 2 were still doing great and they just chugging along with their streaming debut.

You're comparing sub-10 mil openers to a movie that opened over 30 mil. It's been holding up fine so far.

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

You're comparing sub-10 mil openers to a movie that opened over 30 mil. It's been holding up fine so far.

It is been meh the hold, and every WB movies , no matter how much they open, sub-10m or above 10m, have consistently holding worse than other comparable movies.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

It is been meh the hold, and every WB movies , no matter how much they open, sub-10m or above 10m, have consistently holding worse than other comparable movies.

To be fair, stuff like Tom and Jerry and WW84 also constantly do single digit drops. The exception when they had more noticeble drops was during the second weekend and on the weekends of a big release. When they came across empty weekends these movies pretty much remained flat.

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

To be fair, stuff like Tom and Jerry and WW84 also constantly do single digit drops. The exception when they had more noticeble drops was during the second weekend and on the weekends of a big release. When they came across empty weekends these movies pretty much remained flat.

WW84 and T&J start showing some legs starting week 4, but since GvK has to face MK+DS combo in this week, I think we can only see GvK stabilize week 5 onwards. Until then, the hold certainly look meh.

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Wom for GvK isn't good among general public. Fans dug it, but the casuals were like whatever. Frankly, it was always going to be a frontloaded movie like xmen series. Would have done 250ish after a 110+ OW in normal scenario.

 

My son and I just watched it on HBO Max this week, and you hit that reaction exactly right:)...

[Legion Again]

4 hours ago, DAJK said:

A Mortal Kombat breakout would be nice, but would probably also kill GvK's chances of surpassing KOTM domestically.

It’s dead. Bury it.

 

100M probably also dead.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Wom for GvK isn't good among general public. Fans dug it, but the casuals were like whatever. Frankly, it was always going to be a frontloaded movie like xmen series. Would have done 250ish after a 110+ OW in normal scenario.

It had an A Cinemascore and good holds in some other countries (along with good audience scores across the board internationally). HBO Max seems as good an explanation as any for the meh legs domestically (yeah there is piracy, but when there's another legal option...).  

Edited April 22, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

New York DS Sellouts

 

Thu - 82
Fri - 64
Sat - 66
Sun - 33

Mon - 10 (Nice)
Tue - 7

[PKMLover]

37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

New York DS Sellouts

 

Thu - 82
Fri - 64
Sat - 66
Sun - 33

Mon - 10 (Nice)
Tue - 7

If it has good WOM, the weekend will be better and next week days can be good? 

[Porthos]

13 hours ago, Borobudur said:

So going by this pace, MK+DS would still likely to outgross GvK+Unholy (34.8m) even if we minus DS' preview. Domestic market can finally have a 50m total weekend.

Seeing how two films do in this stage of the pandemic era does make me wonder what would have happened if BW stuck to its May 7th date.

 

That is two weekends away, so room for continued improvement/more Regal.  But, I dunno.  Wondering if this is showing that 100m OW for Black Widow was a pipe dream after all.  Or at least a very very tough hill to climb.

 

The sheer number of screens set aside for it might have done the trick.  On the other hand, has capacity really increased that much?  Even with more Regal on the way and NYC jumping up to 33% next week.

 

Gut says "no" but I'd be curious what the trackers who are paying much more attention to total capacity than I would think.

[titanic2187]

 

https://deadline.com/2021/04/mortal-kombat-demon-slayer-box-office-battle-1234741769/

 

Current industry projections indicate $8M-$10M for Demon Slayer versus an estimated $10M-$12M start for Mortal Kombat at 3,073 theaters (a pandemic high in regards to bookings). 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

https://deadline.com/2021/04/mortal-kombat-demon-slayer-box-office-battle-1234741769/

 

Current industry projections indicate $8M-$10M for Demon Slayer versus an estimated $10M-$12M start for Mortal Kombat at 3,073 theaters (a pandemic high in regards to bookings). 

hm, their drug must be one of the highest in terms of quality that  i have ever seen

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

https://deadline.com/2021/04/mortal-kombat-demon-slayer-box-office-battle-1234741769/

 

Current industry projections indicate $8M-$10M for Demon Slayer versus an estimated $10M-$12M start for Mortal Kombat at 3,073 theaters (a pandemic high in regards to bookings). 

Classic Deadline, this is even worse than their GvK projection lol. 

Edited April 22, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

I... I.. is that... 

 

... I’m just gonna assume that’s a bullish pure Fri projection and move on