The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

MK won't drop 45% on Sunday.42%-43% max.

DS will drop less than 30%.

You are right. It did do well with walk ups. I am thinking even lower at around high 30's based on MTC2 drop. But I dont have equivalent MTC1 data to extrapolate. Anyway raw data is here. 

 

Sunday BO

Mortal Kombat

MTC1 - 114858/651133 1157528.00 3618 shows(429 Theatres)

MTC2 - 106698/476785 1111501.46 3230 shows(294 Theatres)

 

Demon Slayer

MTC1 - 123899/561718 1573058.00 3877 shows(410 Theatres)

MTC2 - 96971/405886 1224275.70 3352 shows(276 Theatres)

 

$ value, demon slayer finished comfortably ahead of MK. But MK has PWP and so it could be close between the 2. I am thinking 4.8m for DS, 5m for MK.

 

Anyway it was fun tracking this but I wont be tracking weekdays. Let us hope we get to see bigger BO soon. 

Edited April 26, 2021 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

Thinking $5M for both.

[frog]

49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Sunday Estimates released this morning.  Keyser was tracking the Sunday Actuals and extrapolating.

When will they release the final numbers?

[PKMLover]

On 4/24/2021 at 10:05 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Friday BO(Final Update)

Mortal Kombat

MTC1 - 176827/684102 2076780.00 3938 shows(429 Theatres) +80024// 1049 sellouts

MTC2 - 148634/500216 1700656.85 3338 shows (294 Theatres) +66363 // 476 sellouts

 

Demon Slayer

MTC1 - 127449/574831 1621027.00 4066 shows(409 Theatres) +41072 // 791 sellouts

MTC2 - 96771/377470 1295967.90 3275 shows(276 Theatres) +28260 // 393 sellouts

 

I am not anticipating huge late ticket sales. But this should be 95%+ of final number. I am thinking flat 10m friday for MK if it has similar PWP numbers to GVK friday, To be conservative I would say 9.5m friday for MK. I am also hoping for lower MTC ratio for DS and it gets around to 5.7-6m friday. but this movie will be hard to project. 

 

 

 

58 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

You are right. It did do well with walk ups. I am thinking even lower at around high 30's based on MTC2 drop. But I dont have equivalent MTC1 data to extrapolate. Anyway raw data is here. 

 

Sunday BO

Mortal Kombat

MTC1 - 114858/651133 1157528.00 3618 shows(429 Theatres)

MTC2 - 106698/476785 1111501.46 3230 shows(294 Theatres)

 

Demon Slayer

MTC1 - 123899/561718 1573058.00 3877 shows(410 Theatres)

MTC2 - 96971/405886 1224275.70 3352 shows(276 Theatres)

 

$ value, demon slayer finished comfortably ahead of MK. But MK has PWP and so it could be close between the 2. I am thinking 4.8m for DS, 5m for MK.

 

Anyway it was fun tracking this but I wont be tracking weekdays. Let us hope we get to see bigger BO soon. 

 

DS Sun final number is nearly the same as Fri and Fri is 5.7, I think Sun should be at least 5? 🤔

Fri 

Mtc1: 127k

Mtc2: 96k

Sun 

Mtc1: 123k

Mtc 2: 96k

Edited April 26, 2021 by PKMLover

[keysersoze123]

^^^^

You could be right. Sometimes on Sunday MTC1 ratio could be higher as bigger markets tend to hold better. So overall ratio could be  higher, But comparing with friday is good. 5m looks good to me as well. I am not editing my predictions anyway.

[charlie Jatinder]

I actually think Deadline est. $3.8M Thursday on their own. My Sat projection of $6.4M was based on Fri being $5.5M, Sunday usually has higher MTC 1 & 2 ratio than Fri, so $5-5.1M will do quite ok.

 

Also not that it changed much, but Fri update was bit earlier than Sunday update. 

Edited April 26, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sun morning 81 sellouts NY.

 

Sacramento 83/106 sold out in advance.

Sacramento 26/58 sold out for Monday on Sunday night. 

[frog]

 

[titanic2187]

38 minutes ago, frog said:

 

Is this official? 

[frog]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is this official? 

No

[PKMLover]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sacramento 26/58 sold out for Monday on Sunday night. 

The 1st target about $20M weeekend already done. Now move to the 2x legs target 😛

So far do the weekdays drop much based on presale? 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, frog said:

When will they release the final numbers?

Sometime on Monday, probably before/around Noon Pacific.

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

The 1st target about $20M weeekend already done. Now move to the 2x legs target 😛

So far do the weekdays drop much based on presale? 

Actually if the movie managed to make 40-45m in the end, this will not be far below than Hollywood big studio animation like Raya and T&J

[Legion Again]

DS>Raya>50>MK 

[titanic2187]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

You are right. It did do well with walk ups. I am thinking even lower at around high 30's based on MTC2 drop. But I dont have equivalent MTC1 data to extrapolate. Anyway raw data is here. 

 

Sunday BO

Mortal Kombat

MTC1 - 114858/651133 1157528.00 3618 shows(429 Theatres)

MTC2 - 106698/476785 1111501.46 3230 shows(294 Theatres)

 

Demon Slayer

MTC1 - 123899/561718 1573058.00 3877 shows(410 Theatres)

MTC2 - 96971/405886 1224275.70 3352 shows(276 Theatres)

 

$ value, demon slayer finished comfortably ahead of MK. But MK has PWP and so it could be close between the 2. I am thinking 4.8m for DS, 5m for MK.

 

Anyway it was fun tracking this but I wont be tracking weekdays. Let us hope we get to see bigger BO soon. 

5,53m for MK, -36% sunday drop

[PKMLover]

Do you have data for Monday yet? Did it drop much? @charlie Jatinder

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

Do you have data for Monday yet? Did it drop much? @charlie Jatinder

Key isn’t tracking weekdays

[frog]

 

wtf????

[Tinalera]

I just want to take a moment to thank Key and everyone else who has been tracking (who actually have theatres TO track) the films. Its nice to be able to talk box office predictions in any capacity right now. People taking the time out to do it, even if its just on weekends, is certainly helpful in keeping the thread moving. Thank you!

[PKMLover]

There is no update on weekday from the official source now?