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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

IDK @Porthos these don't sound LOL-astic at this point, or are they😛

 

I must admit to being somewhat surprised at how in snyc they were with each other, yes.  And fairly reasonable.

 

Still, the potential difference in amount of days available for sale (which I didn't have time to check, hence the lack of a note about that) as well as the difference in presale pattern between a horror flick and an action one does make me a little leery of dropping the loltastic disclaimer right now.

 

(I think the KotM one might need it simply due to the inherent insanity in comparing a pre-pandemic movie with a late-stage pandemic one; even if an action flick and a monster movie are broadly similar enuf to compare in normal circumstances)

 

Still... Point taken. 👍 

Edited by Porthos
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10 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Hey, it’s been a long time since we had a real juicy meltdown weekend thread. PR2+ITH 25M would be a fun way to get ‘er dun 👀

 

All those Cinemark subscribers saving their one ticket a month for Fast 9...and then used their May ticket Memorial Day weekend:)...

 

Almost totally kidding...almost:)...

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tbh In the Heights was already going to be playing the long game if COVID never happened and it had opened against Top Gun at the end of June last year as originally planned. Even if it opens to less than $20M I wouldn't worry about staying power (since it's still going to be a while until theaters can really be forced to drop movies due to incoming product). All bets are off in the pandemic/simultaneous release era.

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In the Heights, counted today at 8am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7):
97 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
22 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 356 (6 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 3 theaters: 475.

Up 44% since Tuesday.
In the same 3 theaters AQP II had on Thursday 1.003 sold tickets for its previews on the same day but we have to keep in mind that AQP II had way more days to collect these 1.003 tickets; e.g. the shows for ITH in NY weren't listed before Monday.

 

In the Heights, counted today at 10am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 150 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24):
174 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18):
18 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9):
21 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11):
14 (5 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 190 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal):
356 (12 showtimes, indeed the same number as for Thursday)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 923.
Up 38% since Tuesday.
AQP II had on Thursday 1.582 sold tickets for its previews on the same day. So ITH has 1 day left and would – given it has a similar daily jump as seen so far = 20% – be at ca. 1.100 sold tickets tomorrow = ca. 70% of AQP II. This percentage is good but to stay at the same level ITH would need similar walk-ups and Idk if this is possible with the HBO Max release.
The Conjuring 3 had on Thursday 1.435 sold tickets for its Friday shows. ITH sold on Thursday + Friday 1.398 tickets so it's pretty much on par.
 

Overall I would say the presales are ok but not great. This movie needs the help of WOM to become the hit many see coming.

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Update with Thursday showtimes. Surprisingly, there are no extra screens for ITH this weekend; it only has 3 screens, two of which are PLF. Tagging sales under spoilers for space:

Spoiler

 

Thursday: 

In the Heights:

4:00 Dolby: 5/236

4:30: 0/40

6:00 IMAX: 2/372

7:30 Dolby: 12/236

8:00: 4/40

Total: 23/924

 

Peter Rabbit 2:

4:05: 8/40

6:55: 3/40

Total: 11/80

 

Friday:

2:30 IMAX: 0/372 (New)

4:00: 19/107 (+10)

5:00 Dolby: 25/236 (+1)

6:00 IMAX: 12/372 (+6)

7:30: 3/107 (+1)

8:30 Dolby: 25/236 (+5)

Total: 84/1,430 (+23/+372)

 

Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard Early Access: 21/107 (+11)

 

Peter Rabbit 2:

2:40: 8/107

3:40: 0/77

6:35: 0/77

9:20: 0/77

Total: 8/338

 

The House Next Door: Meet the Blacks:

4:40: 2/70 (-)

7:15: 3/70 (-)

9:15: 0/107 (New)

Total: 5/247 (-/+107)

 

 

In the Heights Comparisons:

 

Friday:

 

52% of AQP2's Friday the day before (10.1M Friday)

42% of AQP2 previews (2M Friday)

110% of Cruella's Friday the day before (8.5M Friday)

263% of Cruella previews (6.3M Friday)

 

 

Thursday:

 

12% of AQP2 previews (575k)

72% of Cruella previews (1.7M)

 

The lack of sales over the past few days is a bit concerning, but the Cruella comp should still be the closest/best option. The Memorial Day Sunday will be absorbed by Thursday, which I don't think a lot of audiences know is even happening because of how last minute the change was. It's very clear that fans will see it in theaters this weekend, but WOM needs to kick in among general audiences for good legs. Barring strong walkups, I'm thinking O/U 20M since this will be a city-only film.

 

Peter Rabbit's previews are running at 34% of Cruella (815k). It'll probably hit 10M this weekend.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, el sid said:

This percentage is good but to stay at the same level ITH would need similar walk-ups and Idk if this is possible with the HBO Max release.

I really don't see why the HBO Max release would affect walk-ups by much. Should easily still have better walkups than AQP2 because its a musical.

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 71 848 8.37%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 70 1665 4.20%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
449 43 12923 3.47% 15 63

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 9.6M

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 73 848 8.61%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 72 1665 4.32%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
475 26 12923 3.68% 15 63

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 9.66M

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2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I really don't see why the HBO Max release would affect walk-ups by much. Should easily still have better walkups than AQP2 because its a musical.

Broadway adaptations tend to be on the frontloaded side, at least for opening weekend (FYI the whole NYC Broadway scene is still offline and won't begin its comeback until September). If it's not showing real signs of strength in the areas it would do best in there's not much hope for anywhere else.

 

Given that it's available to watch at home the same day as theaters WB will probably be happy with whatever the result is. They know their expectations from when they began promoting it around Christmas 2019 are long gone by now.

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5 minutes ago, Blankments said:

a part of me is still being cautiously optimistic because I don’t think the Thursday release was well advertised at all but I’m prepping for the death of all cinema this weekend 

Pls

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Thursday Update:

 

Location Movie Time Capacity Sold
Robinson XD In the Heights 3:00 122 5
Robinson XD In the Heights 6:30 122 13
Robinson XD In the Heights 10:00 122 4
Robinson In the Heights 2:00 123 3
Robinson In the Heights 4:15 100 2
Robinson In the Heights 5:30 123 2
Robinson In the Heights 7:50 100 19
Robinson In the Heights 9:00 123 15
Robinson Peter Rabbit 2 4:00 100 35
Robinson Peter Rabbit 2 4:40 65 19
Robinson Peter Rabbit 2 5:50 59 8
Robinson Peter Rabbit 2 6:50 100 11
Robinson Peter Rabbit 2 7:35 65 19
Robinson Peter Rabbit 2 8:40 59 3
Robinson Peter Rabbit 2 9:30 100 0
Robinson Peter Rabbit 2 10:05 65 5
North Hills XD In the Heights 4:30 174 28
North Hills XD In the Heights 8:00 174 65
North Hills In the Heights 6:00 148 34
North Hills In the Heights 6:30 50 15
North Hills In the Heights 7:30 39 20
North Hills Peter Rabbit 2 4:00 93 60
North Hills Peter Rabbit 2 5:00 50 16
North Hills Peter Rabbit 2 6:40 93 42
North Hills Peter Rabbit 2 7:40 50 4

 

225 sold for In the Heights, 222 for Peter Rabbit.

 

Tomorrow, we've sold 285 for Heights, 215 for Peter, and 71 for The Hitman's Bodyguard. I'm honestly wondering if the HBO release hurt this more than, say, Godzilla v. Kong or Mortal Kombat, which had more explicit characteristics of being a must see tentpole in theaters. It's not too far behind the Conjuring, though, and it's selling well in NYC, so I think $20m is still doable, and WOM will be very promising.

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9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Idk if In the Heights should be taken as some barometer of the BO if it has a disappointing opening as sales seem to indicate. I'm not sure where such confidence that it would've done well in normal times came from? Musicals can be hit-or-miss at the BO. 

Usually, the ones that are hit or miss have mixed/bad reviews. 

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14 minutes ago, Menor said:

Idk if In the Heights should be taken as some barometer of the BO if it has a disappointing opening as sales seem to indicate. I'm not sure where such confidence that it would've done well in normal times came from? Musicals can be hit-or-miss at the BO. 

Seemed like a movie that had just about everything going for it. LMM is bigger than ever, musicals have been a more consistently solid box office genre, Jon Chu is fresh off Crazy Rich Asians, has crowd pleasing elements aplenty, it has the best reviews of the year. Seemed like an easy box office winner to me

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