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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 minute ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Seemed like a movie that had just about everything going for it. LMM is bigger than ever, musicals have been a more consistently solid box office genre, Jon Chu is fresh off Crazy Rich Asians, has crowd pleasing elements aplenty, it has the best reviews of the year. Seemed like an easy box office winner to me

Feels more like a legs movie than a big opener. Even in a normal year, it feels like a 30-40M opener and legging it to 150M+ than a 50M opener. With the Max release, legs may be in shorter supply.

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1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Feels more like a legs movie than a big opener. Even in a normal year, it feels like a 30-40M opener and legging it to 150M+ than a 50M opener. With the Max release, legs may be in shorter supply.

Oh I wasn’t thinking 50M. I assumed like 35M as well and I felt that would be a very potent debut 

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Peter Rabbit 2 will be lucky to top $20m this weekend. I had my predictions at $17M, but now I'm trimming to $12m. As for ITH, I'm predicting $22M OW (3-day) and if you include previews, $26M. I'm sure this will be a cult classic years down the road. Let's please be nice to everyone in the forums. I send my love to you all!

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22 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

This also looks bad too. Guess the next couple weeks are gonna be real rough until F9. And F9's not even looking so hot at the moment. Maybe Memorial Day was just a fluke guys.

If Memorial Day weekend was only weekend that did well and films crashed after that would have bought that. But the films are holding well and Conjuring actually did well.

 

So its more of films opening this weekend problem not box office as overall.

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22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

91

13252

14150

898

6.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

T-15 Comp      FAIRLY LOL-TASTIC AT THIS POINT

 

   %

 

Sold T-15

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II

188.26

 

31

460

 

5/38

1399/1859

24.74%

 

9.04m

F9 (AQP adj)

---

 

71

866

 

0/91

13156/14022

6.18%

 

---

KotM

153.21

 

39

560

 

0/87

11056/11616

4.82%

 

8.69m

F9 (KotM adj)

---

 

69

858

 

0/91

10834/11692

7.34%

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #1:  The comp for KotM has been adjusted downward by 10% to reflect theaters closures in much of Canada.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2:  F9 (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold if I did not track D-BOX seating in the region, which I started to do with this track.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #3:  F9 (KotM adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for King of the Monsters.

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

91

13181

14150

969

6.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

T-14 Comp                    PERHAPS LOL - USE WITH CAUTION

 

   %

 

Sold T-14

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

AQP II

181.91

 

54

514

 

6/63

2214/2728

18.84%

 

8.73m

F9 (AQP adj)

---

 

67

935

 

0/91

13087/14022

6.67%

 

---

KotM

152.48

 

46

606

 

0/87

11010/11616

5.22%

 

8.64m

F9 (KotM adj)

---

 

64

924

 

0/91

10768/11692

7.90%

 

---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #1:  The comp for KotM has been adjusted downward by 10% to reflect theaters closures in much of Canada.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2:  F9 (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold if I did not track D-BOX seating in the region, which I started to do with this track.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #3:  F9 (KotM adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for King of the Monsters.

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55 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

150 shows listed for BW in New York for Fandago. Shows include REGAL and AMC.

Cinemark isn't up on Fandango locally, but is on corp site as I said a couple of days ago.

 

Anyway, IIRC Disney liked to start ticket sales on Mondays back in the Before Times.  At least they did in 2019 when they had their powerhouse lineup.

 

*checks*

 

Hmmm...

 

Raya went on sale on Feb 5th, a Friday.

 

Cruella tickets went on sale on May 14th, also a Friday.

 

*showtimes just went up on the MTCs (aside from Cinemark, which already had them)*

 

Hmmm...

 

Now I'm not sayin'....

Edited by Porthos
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12 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Seemed like a movie that had just about everything going for it. LMM is bigger than ever, musicals have been a more consistently solid box office genre, Jon Chu is fresh off Crazy Rich Asians, has crowd pleasing elements aplenty, it has the best reviews of the year. Seemed like an easy box office winner to me

 

Sometimes, it's timing and circumstances...as someone mentioned, this is an easier watch on HBO Max than the special effects spectaculars...and this is likely not drawing many  viewers from the most consistent box office goers this whole pandemic - the Wrath of Man/Nobody type viewers...while it would draw greatly from the most skittish (have we got any feedback on how 50+ are going to any movies yet)...

 

And maybe it just doesn't "hit" people from its ads...folks may not uber-love the advertised song (don't get me wrong, it's very good, but is it Hamilton-level, since audiences will compare)...and while huge dance scenes are impressive to watch in ads, it may read more "Broadway play" than movie, and that may be a turn off for a lot of folks, who might only want to see Broadway-type events "live" (ie - on stage in person)...

 

I hope it does well - I hope the late BOGO helps lift its opening weekend...but it wouldn't be a surprise to have an off-weekend after 2 "big for pandemic recovery" weekends in a row...there's now a lot of product around to see (unlike at any other point since March 2020), and even that might hurt b/c as I mentioned at my theaters, neither of the new movies got the largest sets...

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I don't know if they polished VFx there in break but that action set looks much better than first trailer.

 

I hope @keysersoze123 make a visit so that we can get 24 hour PS numbers.

 

NGL, the short has me pumped. I think it can play with $100M OW. 👀

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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It seems like summer is going to be mostly carried by blockbuster sequels and Disney (Cruella is already showing signs of potentially sticking around the whole summer). Which is honestly the direction the market was headed in before COVID happened and altered our entire way of life.

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There are only 8 shows listed right now at my local AMC for Saturday for Black Widow. I'm not sure why there are so few shows right now since even ATatW got over 20 shows for release Saturday as soon as tickets went on sale. Although this same theater didn't add additional ITH showtimes until Tuesday night before release, so maybe they're just waiting until we get closer to release? Anyway I don't expect huge presale numbers until they add more showtimes. 

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Captain Marvel MTC 1 first 3 days was $1.8M, extrapolating from pulse numbers we had, that would be $0.6M first day, $0.9M second day and $0.3M day three. Pre-sales started 60 days before release.

 

Spider-Man: Far From Home pre-sales started 57 days before release. First 6 days were $1.7M, extrapolating from pulse, 1st day being $1.1M and 2nd day being $0.4M. 

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28 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It seems like summer is going to be mostly carried by blockbuster sequels and Disney (Cruella is already showing signs of potentially sticking around the whole summer). Which is honestly the direction the market was headed in before COVID happened and altered our entire way of life.


Disney? What about WB. They carried us during the pandemic and 6 of their HBO max films have opened at #1. 
 

Horror has been carrying the summer box office. Thank you very much. 

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10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Horror has been carrying the summer box office. Thank you very much. 

 

39 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It seems like summer is going to be mostly carried by blockbuster sequels and Disney 

 

both of you are right. summer so far has been carried by horror and is going to be carried by Disney for most part as is the case in normalcy and now that normalcy is here.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:


Disney? What about WB. They carried us during the pandemic and 6 of their HBO max films have opened at #1. 
 

Horror has been carrying the summer box office. Thank you very much. 

I was strictly speaking for the past month or so. Those Who Wish Me Dead made peanuts at the box office for WB.

 

A Quiet Place and The Conjuring did really well (though the latter likely would've gone over $30M if it had been in theaters only) but Spiral pretty much sputtered. We'll see how the glut of horror movies coming out in the second half of the season do.

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