The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Question to other trackers, have you guys been including social distancing blocked seats in the "Seats Available/Total Seats" number? 

 

Before F9 I wasn't, but since Cali is transitioning to eliminating social distancing as a requirement starting on Tuesday, I started counting all seats in the Total Seats column with the F9 track even if a individual theater chain was still social distancing on their own, as trying to mix and match social distanced seats from chain to chain would be a nightmare logistically.  Not so much in a day-to-day track, but I didn't want to deal with the headache of suddenly having a huge number of seats become available when/if a chain suddenly stopped enforcing a social distance mid-track.

 

Probably doesn't matter too much one way or the other.  Just if you don't include them in the total seat column, prepare for a jump in available seats when/if social distance rules are changed mid-track.

 

[Inceptionzq]

31 minutes ago, Menor said:

Question to other trackers, have you guys been including social distancing blocked seats in the "Seats Available/Total Seats" number? 

Yes

[keysersoze123]

Sorry guys. Life has been insanely busy past few weeks. I am in a new job and we are closing on a new home. So have little time to look at BO. I definitely cannot track daily but did a quick look at BW.

 

Black Widow (T-26)

MTC1 - 30950/371916 461263.00 1870 shows 404 Theatres

MTC2 - 22052/394294 294004.53 2553 shows. 304 Theatres

 

Its quite good but nothing crazy. But looks like it should have no problems having the biggest OW of the year though I am not sure about Triple digit from these numbers. I dont know how often I will update but will try to drop in at times. 

[keysersoze123]

16 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Seems pretty safe to assume we will get biggest 24 hours pre-sales for an MCU solo film behind Endgame and Infinity War. 

 

Though can use confirmation from @Porthos data, as I believe that's the oldest one we have here for old comps.

Bigger than Black Panther or even Thor Ragnarok???? I am doubtful as there were no restrictions back then.

[cax16]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

I've seen some discussion in the thread about this the last couple of days, but I don't want to hunt for the quotes.

 

As I look into Canada, not taking caps into account, would it be safe to say that Ontario is the only major holdout right now?  Can't find any easy info on Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and PEI, but as I poke about it does appear that of the major areas of Canada, it's only Ontario which is still shuttered.

 

Which, given it's around 40% of the Canadian market ain't nothing.  But does make me want to adjust my ad-hoc 90% estimate in regards to pre-pandemic movies up to 95%.  Also might mean a slight bump to any AQP II comps, though I suspect F9 will be the best comp when all is said and done.

Ontario theatres won’t open till we get to stage three of our reopening plan. We just entered stage one yesterday and it’s “supposed” to be 21 days between each stage though I doubt that happens. If case counts keep dropping and as more people getting fully vaccinated I think they’ll move up the dates but we’ll see. I’ll let you guys know when things change. 

[charlie Jatinder]

52 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bigger than Black Panther or even Thor Ragnarok???? I am doubtful as there were no restrictions back then.

Record is with Far From Home I think for first 24 hours. MTC 1 3 days is with BP tho. BP was 2, CM 1.8 and SM 1.6ish.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Unless @keysersoze123 give FRI, SAT and SUN numbers, I am estimating $1-1.1M MTC 1 in 24 hours. That's par what FFH did but CM was probably a bit more in first 24 hours may be.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, cax16 said:

Ontario theatres won’t open till we get to stage three of our reopening plan. We just entered stage one yesterday and it’s “supposed” to be 21 days between each stage though I doubt that happens. If case counts keep dropping and as more people getting fully vaccinated I think they’ll move up the dates but we’ll see. I’ll let you guys know when things change. 

I admit its tough sometimes watching other theatres with their count and we're like waiting till at least Aug before we possibly see theatres opening. But it is what it is and Im HOPING that we are finally seeing a light....and hoping it's not a train lol

[charlie Jatinder]

Time	MTC 1						MTC 2						National Estimate
	Pre	Fri	Sat	Sun	FSS	Overall	Pre	Fri	Sat	Sun	FSS	Overall	Pre	Fri	Sat	Sun	FSS	Overall
24 Hours	0.43	0.22	0.14	0.06	0.85	1.08	0.27	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.52	0.54	1.47	0.82	0.53	0.22	3.05	3.11

 

 

FRI, SAT and SUN are estimated from @Menor update of MTC 2 and past trends. The number filled below days is what scrapped data gives and overall is estimated overall.

 

THU numbers are about where most of our individual trackers data was pointing. $1.5M, so that's a win.

Edited June 13, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	53	785	8686	9.04%

 

Total Showings Added in the Last Two Days: 1

Total Seats Added in the Last Two Days: 3,090

Total Seats Sold in the Last Two Days: 83

 

Comp

0.813x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-13 Before Release (7.89M)

1.953x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-13 Before Release (37.82M)

 

So to clarify two things:

 

1. Yes, I forgot to report sales yesterday. Long story short, family came over, I got both distracted and exhausted from it that I could barely stay awake, and then I passed out when I tried to tally up tickets. Sorry for the incomplete picture, but this stuff happens, and I hope you guys understand that I was a bit too busy last night.

 

2. The massive seats jump may seem confusing. Basically, Regal theaters here have just shifted their social distancing policy and are now allowing zero social distancing at all. F9 is reaping those rewards here. AMC is still using social distancing well into Black Widow's opening, but that could change once we get closer to release.

 

And now, onto the real big boy.

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	53	846	8686	9.74%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 61

 

Comp

0.853x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-12 Before Release (8.28M)

1.867x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-12 Before Release (36.17M)

 

Oh hey. The GvK comp increased. That's cool I guess.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	815	10055	8.11%

 

@charlie Jatinder

 

So....

 

Godzilla vs. Kong Final Tickets Sold (Wed): 3,877

A Quiet Place Part II (Thu): 1,967

A Quiet Place Part II (Thu+Fri): 5,179

Cruella (Thu): 409

Cruella (Thu+Fri): 1,273

 

You asked for it, I delivered.

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	947	10055	9.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 132

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/12/2021 at 9:01 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

AMC Empire 25

Black Widow

 

IMAX - 185 ( 2 shows)

Dolby - 179 (2 shows)

Prime - 76 (2 shows)

Standard - 39 (2 shows)

 

Total - 479 (8 shows) ~$11K

 

AMC Empire 25 T-26 Days

Black Widow

 

IMAX - 204 ( 2 shows) +19 (~83%)

Dolby - 193 (2 shows) +14 (~75%)

Prime - 85 (2 shows) +9 (~40%)

Standard - 41 (2 shows) +2 

 

Total - 521 (8 shows) +44 ~$12K

 

Yeah this ain't moving much till shows increase in premium property. Smaller theaters will be ones moving the sales from here.

Edited June 13, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 6/12/2021 at 12:20 AM, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	11432	12415*	983	7.92%

* NOTE: Two showings had two seats removed from their seat maps resulting in four less seats in the region overall.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

48

 

UNRELIABLE DATA REMOVED (see here and here for explanation)

Total Showings Removed	12
Total Seats Removed	1730
Total Sold Seats Removed	34

 

T-13 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	177.51		31	538		5/65	2359/2897	18.57%		8.52m
F9 (AQP adj)	---		46	955		0/79	11340/12295	7.77%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj)  is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2:  F9 (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started on this track.

 

(KotM comp removed due to not having easily accessible archived seat map level data that far back)

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	79	11394	12415	1021	8.22%

 

Showing Reaching Theater Cap*	1
Total Seats Sold Today	38

* NOTE:  Even though California is lifting all restrictions on movie theaters on June 15th, at least one theater in the region still marked a showing as Sold Out when it reached 50% of available seats sold.  Thus a new category of "Capped" is introduced to separate it from other, non-capped, sellouts that might occur. 

 

T-12 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	170.62		44	582		5/67	2315/2897	20.09%		8.19m
F9 (AQP adj)	---		38	993		0/79	11301/12295	8.08%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2:  F9 (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started on this track.

 

====

 

Not a good day for F9 locally.  Back-to-back days of meh to ick days.  Might be in the doldrums right now before it starts to pick up as we get closer to release.  Might also be suffering a little bit thanks to folks buying BW tickets.  Dunno.  Just not great day today.

 

(Can't adjust KotM, but unadjusted it sold 50 tickets at T-12 and even if a large portion of those tickets were from the three theaters currently not tracked [which I doubt], still not a good day-for-day comp)

Edited June 25, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	99	16124	17213	1089	6.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1089

 

 

No official comps at the moment.

 

====

 

NOTE:  As explained up thread, three theaters are not being tracked due to extremely unreliable seat maps. Unlike the current F9 seat maps there is pretty much no way I can fake it on this one.  And it would just get worse as time goes on.  Hopefully this will be rectified one way or another in the fullness of time.

 

(yes, the unofficial counts I gave earlier were polluted — I might try to figure out what they were "really" later on, but I'm running super late right now).

 

No comp blocks as I am extremely behind schedule, but I can say that on an adjusted basis, GvK sold 149 tickets on its "Day One" when I remove the theaters I am presently not tracking. But there were a ton of theaters still missing, as Sacramento was only unofficially open at the time as well as there being no Regal open at all in the region.

 

FWIW, locally Captain Marvel sold 1498 tickets on its Day One, but I can't easily figure out an accurate comp as I'd have to break out some old hard drives to access the seat map level data and adjust for those theaters I am not tracking this time around (ie on an adjusted basis, CM sold less than 1498 tickets, but I don't know how much exactly).

 

All in all a pretty strong start, though it did seem to taper off after 6pm.  We'll see where it goes from here.

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	104	16873	18186	1313	7.22%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	973
Total Seats Sold Today	224

 

No official comps at the moment.

 

===

 

Fairly strong "Day Two".  While it's hard to do like-for-like comps given the situation with Cinema West, not to mention theaters now having reserved seating that didn't in when I tracked earlier movies, for comparison Captain Marvel sold 195 tickets on its Day 2, The Lion King sold 261 tickets, and Toy Story 4 sold 208 tickets on its Day 2.

 

No hard and fast conclusions from any of those comps, except to say:  Good second day locally.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel sold 195 tickets

224/195 * 20.7 = 23.7

 

I mean that's just math. 👀

Edited June 13, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[titanic2187]

5 hours ago, Tinalera said:

I admit its tough sometimes watching other theatres with their count and we're like waiting till at least Aug before we possibly see theatres opening. But it is what it is and Im HOPING that we are finally seeing a light....and hoping it's not a train lol

Ontario's regulation is freaking risk-adverse or a.k a. cowardice, for a 14m population state to close off the entire cinema chain because of 500-600 people getting sick daily and 15 death, is it really worth it? And it is not like there are no other alternative to counter the risk, just mandate the mask wearing and 1m social distancing and that would make win-win for everybody.  

[titanic2187]

11 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

In Denver, it’s just one seat between parties for the most part. There’s the occasional two seats between parties, even when most are just one seat between in the same showing, idk why some are like that.

One seat is still a reasonable ask. NYC's 6 foot distancing is a bit too much. I still don't understand how come AMC choose ditching mask mandate over doing away the social distancing. The former cost almost nothing to execute but latter bring in more potential footfall.   

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

94

848

11.08%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

84

1665

5.05%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
550	33	13037	4.22%	15	64

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 114

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 9.39M

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

99

848

11.67%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

84

1665

5.05%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
578	28	13037	4.43%	15	64

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 9.18M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

161

1980

8.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

189

1939

9.75%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 13 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
789	46	21278	3.71%	15	112

 

Won't have any actual comps for a while. I suppose I'll do a comp to the final total of Lion King and Rise of Skywalker, but take them with a big grain of salt.

 

Black Widow has sold 656 tickets in the comparable theaters.

 

TLK final count comp: 1.99M, adjusted: 1.61M

TRoS final count comp: 1.84M, adjusted: 1.59M

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

192

1980

9.70%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

221

1939

11.40%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
933	144	21278	4.38%	15	112

 

TLK final count comp: 2.37M, adjusted: 1.92M

TRoS final count comp: 2.19M, adjusted: 1.89M

 

Decided to try some adjusting to the final count comps. I'm guessing that Black Widow will be in at least 4000 theaters, so I used that as an estimate. Also adjusted a bit for Canada.  But again, take this with a grain of salt. Like @Lokis Legion was saying yesterday, Fast 9 will probably be the best comp for this. Obviously we won't have that for a while.

[WrathOfHan]

Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard:

 

4:10: 0/107

5:00 IMAX: 0/372

6:00 Dolby: 6/236

7:05: 0/107

8:00 IMAX: 0/372

8:45 Dolby: 0/236

Total: 6/1,430

 

Too early for comps given the Wednesday opening; hopefully sales pick up tomorrow. The Dolby shows were only added yesterday, so that's at least somewhat encouraging.