The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

If someone is willing, we can add Harkins to portfolio of tracking. 33 theaters, best thing they list all of them on one page. Chosing Harkins because they contribute 2% (for big openers can go low to 1.8% when lack of theaters come handy) of NA box office with just 30 odd theaters.

https://www.harkins.com/movies/black-widow-87856-3

One thing I noticed that every show has like 2 seats pre-blocked. So we might to remove that.

Edited June 14, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	53	846	8686	9.74%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 61

 

Comp

0.853x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-12 Before Release (8.28M)

1.867x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-12 Before Release (36.17M)

 

Oh hey. The GvK comp increased. That's cool I guess.

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	53	865	8686	9.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

 

Comp

0.778x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-11 Before Release (7.55M)

1.670x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-11 Before Release (32.34M)

 

Eesh. Not sure why today was so bad, but I hope this isn't a fluke.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	53	865	8686	9.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

 

Comp

0.778x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-11 Before Release (7.55M)

1.670x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-11 Before Release (32.34M)

 

Eesh. Not sure why today was so bad, but I hope this isn't a fluke.

Weekend are usually bad for future pre-sales of films.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	947	10055	9.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 132

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	1057	10055	10.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 110

 

Yeah, I think going above 100 tickets is still pretty good here. Still chugging along.

[Cmasterclay]

I've always, pre-pandemic, called Hitman's Wife Bodyguard as a Now You See Me 2 situation but starting from a lower baseline, so I will draw zero conclusions about the state of the movie business if/when it flops.

[charlie Jatinder]

Approximate Guess for MTC 1 pre-sales for CM, SM:FFH and BW

Day 1 - 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.05
Day 2 - 0.85 | 0.25 | 0.19
Day 3 - 0.25 | 0.11 | 0.17

 

Total - 1.8 | 1.45 | 1.41

 

CM and SM:FFH numbers I extrapolated from Pulse and @Deep Wang numbers.

Spoiler

DW numbers were FFH 1.7M in 7 days and CM 1.8M in 3 days.

 

Pulse.

Captain Marvel	5,983	8,166	3,334	2,250	1,167	595
	60 days	59 days	58 days	57 days	56 days	55 days

 

Spider-Man FFH	13,647	3,356	1,669	1,073	591	383
	57 days	56 days	55 days	54 days	53 days	52 days

 

Edited June 14, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	79	11394	12415	1021	8.22%

 

Showing Reaching Theater Cap*	1
Total Seats Sold Today	38

* NOTE:  Even though California is lifting all restrictions on movie theaters on June 15th, at least one theater in the region still marked a showing as Sold Out when it reached 50% of available seats sold.  Thus a new category of "Capped" is introduced to separate it from other, non-capped, sellouts that might occur. 

 

T-12 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	170.62		44	582		5/67	2315/2897	20.09%		8.19m
F9 (AQP adj)	---		38	993		0/79	11301/12295	8.08%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2:  F9 (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started on this track.

 

====

 

Not a good day for F9 locally.  Back-to-back days of meh to ick days.  Might be in the doldrums right now before it starts to pick up as we get closer to release.  Might also be suffering a little bit thanks to folks buying BW tickets.  Dunno.  Just not great day today.

 

(Can't adjust KotM, but unadjusted it sold 50 tickets at T-12 and even if a large portion of those tickets were from the three theaters currently not tracked [which I doubt], still not a good day-for-day comp)

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	79	11335	12415	1080	8.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-11 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	170.52		44	614		4/67	2283/2897	21.19%		8.19m
F9 (adj)	---		54	1047		0/79	11247/12295	9.15%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 2:  F9 (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started on this track.

 

====

 

Something of a bounce back day relative to the last couple of days, but even with that F9 only kept its current pace against AQP II.  Also, slightly misleading as 17 of the tickets were purchased at two showings, so I don't know if we'll see the same level of sales tomorrow.  Still, better than the last couple of days.

[Porthos]

On 6/12/2021 at 11:35 PM, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	104	16873	18186	1313	7.22%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	973
Total Seats Sold Today	224

 

No official comps at the moment.

 

===

 

Fairly strong "Day Two".  While it's hard to do like-for-like comps given the situation with Cinema West, not to mention theaters now having reserved seating that didn't in when I tracked earlier movies, for comparison Captain Marvel sold 195 tickets on its Day 2, The Lion King sold 261 tickets, and Toy Story 4 sold 208 tickets on its Day 2.

 

No hard and fast conclusions from any of those comps, except to say:  Good second day locally.

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	104	16688	18186	1498	8.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

185

 

No official comps at the moment.

 

==

 

Another strong day for Black Widow locally.  Wish I could give some comps, but que será será.  Can follow @Inceptionzq's lead though and give:

 

BW (adj) = .24382x GvK (adj) final OD total at stop of tracking  ≈    2.34m

BW (adj) = .47632x AQP II (adj) final Thr total at stop of tracking ≈ 2.29m

BW (adj) = DBOX seats removed from track.  GvK (adj) and AQP II (adj) = total seats sold - seats sold at Cinema West locations.

 

No further adjustments made since they were relatively recent.  Seems to broadly agree with Inceptionzq's placement, if somewhat higher.

Edited June 15, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

without A:EG

 

MTC 1 only, not whole USA. Trend lines aren't actually that, I took whatever data points were there and joined those.

Edited June 14, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

As per our 3 cities data, F9 is roughly 60-80% of BW so far for THU. Since BW sales est at $4.2M overall, I think F9 would be around $2.5-2.75M Approx T-11 days. That's less than GvK at same time, which had $3M sales excl. PWPs for 5 days weekend.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If someone is willing, we can add Harkins to portfolio of tracking. 33 theaters, best thing they list all of them on one page. Chosing Harkins because they contribute 2% (for big openers can go low to 1.8% when lack of theaters come handy) of NA box office with just 30 odd theaters.

https://www.harkins.com/movies/black-widow-87856-3

One thing I noticed that every show has like 2 seats pre-blocked. So we might to remove that.

Bumping this.

Edited June 14, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[filmlover]

The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard has barely sold anything for its 5 day opening. Definitely feels like a low opening is incoming.

[LegendaryBen]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard has barely sold anything for its 5 day opening. Definitely feels like a low opening is incoming.

Let's see what @el sid and @WrathOfHan say. However, $10M or less for its 5-day wouldn't surprise me. This would allow AQP2 to be #1 again this upcoming weekend.

[Borobudur]

27 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Let's see what @el sid and @WrathOfHan say. However, $10M or less for its 5-day wouldn't surprise me. This would allow AQP2 to be #1 again this upcoming weekend.

Seem to be the case, and AQP2 have more father day appeal to other major holdovers

[CJohn]

Under 10M for the 5 day opening?!

 

Jesus theaters are fucking DEAD. Lionsgate should have just sold Hitman's sequel and Spiral to a streamer. Same with Sony and Peter Rabbit 2.

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Under 10M for the 5 day opening?!

 

Jesus theaters are fucking DEAD. Lionsgate should have just sold Hitman's sequel and Spiral to a streamer. Same with Sony and Peter Rabbit 2.

Lol, they should just shut the company down at once, the fastest way to sell everything

Edited June 14, 2021 by Borobudur

[LegendaryBen]

I've looked at @el sid's theaters that he tracks. Unless THWB gets massive walk-ups, my sub-$10M 5-day prediction may be accurate. 3 of his 7 theaters for Wednesday's showing have sold zilch. AMC Universal has earned the most tickets but still catastrophic.

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 6/12/2021 at 3:33 PM, Menor said:

Black Widow MTC2 (315 theaters)

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 2620

Tickets Sold: 19137/409072

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4689

Tickets Sold: 10340/733806

 

Will add estimated $ values in tomorrow's update. 

 

Question to other trackers, have you guys been including social distancing blocked seats in the "Seats Available/Total Seats" number? 

 

Thursday: 

Showtimes: 2707 (+87)

Tickets Sold: 23636/421168 (+4469)

Sales: $293,584

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4771 (+82)

Tickets Sold: 13055/742894 (+2715)

Sales: $108,071

 

[charlie Jatinder]

@Menor are you missing something or @keysersoze123 double counting something because he had 22k sold in 2550 shows 2 days ago in MTC 2.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor are you missing something or @keysersoze123 double counting something because he had 22k sold in 2550 shows 2 days ago in MTC 2.

Most likely, either Keyser is double counting DBOX showings or my subtraction of the DBOX "sold" seats is subtracting too much. I tested it with my local theater but they are tricky to handle.