The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

269

1980

13.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

283

1939

14.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1216	76	21278	5.71%	15	112
$150 PWPs:	2
$200 PWPs:	0
$250 PWPs:	0
$300 PWPs:	0
Total	2

 

TLK final count comp: 3.17M; adjusted: 2.56M

TRoS final count comp: 2.93M; adjusted: 2.53M

 

Looks like AMC is also doing PWPs.

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

276

1980

13.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

300

1939

15.47%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1282	66	21278	6.03%	15	112
$150 PWPs:	2
$200 PWPs:	0
$250 PWPs:	0
$300 PWPs:	0
Total	2

 

TLK final count comp: 3.31M; adjusted: 2.68M

TRoS final count comp: 3.06M; adjusted: 2.64M

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/17/2021 at 2:11 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-21 days Thursday: 1553(+34)/21439 in 14 theaters. $20,966 with $13.50 ATP

 

T-22 days Friday: 856(+14)/36730 in 14 theaters. $11,556 with $13.50 ATP.

 

I forgot to add the seat count for a theater, hence the overall seat increase. But there are no tickets sold there so far, which is why I forgot. Nothing exciting, especially since this wasn't a full 24 hour cycle. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-20 days Thursday: 1652(+99)/21439 in 14 theaters. $22,032 with $13.50 ATP

 

T-21 days Friday: 921(+65)/36730 in 14 theaters. $12,434 with $13.50 ATP

Edited June 19, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Fast 9 Megaplex

 

T-7 days Thursday: 683(+16)/13434 in 14 theaters. $9221 with $13.50 ATP

 

T-8 days Friday: 842(+62)/35471 in 14 theaters. $11367 with $13.50 ATP

 

Just to note, Thursday's increase is really over the past 14 hours.

Fast 9 Megaplex

 

T-6 days Thursday: 739(+56)/13434 in 14 theaters. $9977 with $13.50 ATP

 

T-7 days Friday: 948(+106)/35471 in 14 theaters. $12,798 with $13.50 ATP

[Maggie]

How's F9 doing? Does my UNDER 50M club have a chance?

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, Maggie said:

How's F9 doing? Does my UNDER 50M club have a chance?

Anything is possible if final days are weak, but with Friday sales looking robust it’s quite tough. I would consider 6*8.5 already pretty pessimistic.

[Menor the Destroyer]

22 hours ago, Menor said:

Black Widow MTC2 (315 theaters):

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 2834 (+71)

Seats Sold: 29175/435607 (+2960)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4899 (+71)

Seats Sold: 15724/462460 (+1564)

Thursday

Showtimes: 2849 (+15)

Seats Sold: 30853/437443 (+1678)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4906 (+7)

Seats Sold: 17003/763378 (+1279)

[Menor the Destroyer]

22 hours ago, Menor said:

F9 MTC2 (316 theaters)

 

Thursday: 

Showtimes: 2049 (+155)

Seats Sold: 23249/306001 (+3245)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4602 (+275)

Seats Sold: 22398/700303 (+3586)

 

For both this and BW this is about a 2-day update period as I forgot to update yesterday. 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 2102 (+53)

Seats Sold: 25139/312485 (+1890)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4672

Seats Sold: 24540/707597 (+2142)

[cax16]

Black Widow
Opening Weekend Range: $65 – 90 million
Domestic Total Range: $155 – 225 million

 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-black-widow/

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Black Widow
Opening Weekend Range: $65 – 90 million
Domestic Total Range: $155 – 225 million

 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-black-widow/

 

@Shawn Admit it.  You purposefully set the upper bound at 90m to chase away the plebs from @Lokis Legion's 100m OW club but make it tantalizingly close enough to grab for the risk takers on this board.   

[Legion Again]

High end 10M away from my club.

 

Low end of 5M away from @Maggie's club.  

 

This is *not* perfectly balanced 

[Shawn Robbins]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

@Shawn Admit it.  You purposefully set the upper bound at 90m to chase away the plebs from @Lokis Legion's 100m OW club but make it tantalizingly close enough to grab for the risk takers on this board.   

I wish I could say I had the evil genius (or knowledge of the club) within me to do that. 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Thursday:

Showtimes: 2102 (+53)

Seats Sold: 25139/312485 (+1890)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4672

Seats Sold: 24540/707597 (+2142)

Without having MTC 1, this is hard, but I will go $1.65M THU and $1.6M FRI so far. SAT and SUN may be another $1.6-1.7M, so $4.75-5M sales so far.

 

T-6 Days other numbers we had (I know the above were mid-day but I adjusted them for end of day)

 

Comps

Mortal Kombat - 28577/412631 $351K 2647 shows (294 theatres) // 38 sellouts

 

GvK -  43831/389760 $500K 2544 shows (259 theaters)

 

GvK is pretty outdated due to the fact that more theaters are open now, so is MK but that's the latest one we have. Also these #s for MK are for Friday and not THU, so its not like MK is outselling F9. MK eventually did 5.3x from here, and if F9 did that, that would be $8.75M THU but for surety need MTC 1. Friday is really strong, may be $8M final PS and $18M True Friday.

[Legion Again]

Some Long range tracking factoids:

For a 100M OW, BW would need to beat the initial OW point estimate by 30%. This has happened 5/21 times (afaik no long range tracking was issued for IM1 or Hulk) -- 24%. Alternatively 3/17 solos (18%), 2/6 summer releases (33%), or 1/5 July releases (20%). Full list: TFA, TA, gotg, BP, Endgame.   

 

To go below a 150 total, it would need to go below the initial total point estimate by 20%, which has happened 0/21 times -- though AoU was close.  

 

Accordingly, there will be no bonus option for my club after all, it is already a nice bold goal (though firmly within reason as well).

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Thursday

Showtimes: 2849 (+15)

Seats Sold: 30853/437443 (+1678)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4906 (+7)

Seats Sold: 17003/763378 (+1279)

 

May be $2.2M THU and $1.3M FRI. T-20 Days. Overall $4.75M ish.

[Legion Again]

F9 long range tracking history:

6/18/21 -- 50-70 (geomean 59)

5/14/21 -- 60-90 (geomean 73)

 

I thought we had got some before the shutdown, but actually we didn't.

 

BW long range tracking history:

6/18/21 -- 65-90 (geomean 77)

3/6/20 -- 90-130 (geomean 108)

 

So BW is ~30% below the pre-covid forecast, would be closer without PA.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Fast 9 Megaplex

 

T-6 days Thursday: 739(+56)/13434 in 14 theaters. $9,977 with $13.50 ATP

T-7 days Friday: 948(+106)/35471 in 14 theaters. $12,798 with $13.50 ATP

I don't understand. For a chain which is very previews heavy, why is this being so backloaded. THU suggests $1.1M so far while Friday is $1.5M, not so far from MTC 2.

 

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-20 days Thursday: 1652(+99)/21439 in 14 theaters. $22,032 with $13.50 ATP

T-19 days Friday: 921(+65)/36730 in 14 theaters. $12,434 with $13.50 ATP

Great THU increase, beating F9 this far out. THU numbers suggests $2.4M THU, in line with MTC 2 and most of our other tracking. Friday is $1.4M, also around what MTC 2 suggests.

 

@Inceptionzq I guess can use $14 for THU for both.

Edited June 19, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	63	1055	9688	10.89%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 260

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

 

Comp

0.738x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-7 Before Release (7.16M)

1.330x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-7 Before Release (25.77M)

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	63	1141	9688	11.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 86

 

Comp

0.705x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-6 Before Release (6.84M)

1.271x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-6 Before Release (24.61M)

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	1416	13155	10.76%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 71

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	1469	13155	11.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

[Porthos]

On 6/17/2021 at 10:47 PM, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	86	11869	13283	1414	10.65%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	169
Total Seats Sold Today	91

 

T-7 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	156.68		91	882		2/78	2328/3210	37.89%		7.52m
F9 (adj)	---		91	1382		0/86	11781/13163	10.50%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

==

 

Not exactly trending in the right direction, locally...

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	87	11891	13384	1493	11.16%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	101
Total Seats Sold Today	79

 

T-6 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	153.95		67	949		5/75	2155/3104	44.04%		7.39m
F9 (adj)	---		79	1461		0/87	11803/13264	11.01%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

==

 

Meh.

 

One note.  Wasn't able to get an update from one of the Regals in town, but they aren't that heavily trafficked.  But if I can get an update before I head to bed, I'll edit into this post.

Edited October 13, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 6/17/2021 at 10:48 PM, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	105	16753	18618	1865	10.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

94

 

No official comps at the moment.

 

=====

 

Slight social media embargo lift bounce?  Could be variance, but 20 more tickets than yesterday points to a bump, if slight.

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	105	16676	18618	1942	10.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

77

 

3.4433x the tickets that F9 sold at the same theaters at T-20 [1942 vs 564].

Black Widow has had 8 days of ticket sales while F9 had 4 days of ticket sales at this point in time.

 

No other official comps at the moment.

 

===

 

As noted in my last post, couldn't get an update at a theater.  If I can get an update, I'll edit in here.

 

 

Edited June 19, 2021 by Porthos