The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Actually folks, if anything, F9 numbers are improvement on what we had from @Menor.  Now we know that MTC 1 However. @keysersoze123 just filling you in, Menor data showed that F9 is doing better on Friday than THU weirdly, even better than BW, despite THU being a lot smaller. We also started a small Utah chain, there Friday is absolutely murdering THU.

 

For now THU suggests $1.9M for F9. Not exactly bad since it will probably explode on final day. Yes that happened with Hobbs and Shaw as well and in China as well, where pre-sales were turning out to be disaster only for final days to go boom and save it a bit.

 

Still its a pale shadow of where the franchise was previously. Even if it has great final week, Its OW will be disappointing. It does not have the excuse of going streaming day and date as well. Weird thing is last Jan when PS started very early for 2020 release, its PS started really strong. I dont have the data now but it should be in the thread somewhere. I think its core audience lost interest after the huge delay. At this point its not going to come close to AQP2 to me. But I could be wrong. Let us wait and watch. 

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Menor said:

Ah, I think I understand my confusion. You're taking OD as Friday right?

 

Yes. Since the thursday shows start only at 5PM, I look that as previews. 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Still its a pale shadow of where the franchise was previously.

I think depends on pov. I thought F7 did unreal numbers and FF8 was probably coming from high of F7 so had the added glory attached to it. With Hobbs and Shaw the franchise showed returning to ground, but that was dissed on basis that it isn't main film but a spin off. Now F9, as other markets also showed, played closely to H&S than FF8.

 

FF are pretty much general audience and small markets movies like Jurassic World movie IMO. So I am not surprised.

  

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird thing is last Jan when PS started very early for 2020 release, its PS started really strong. I dont have the data now but it should be in the thread somewhere.

 

I think we did check the data for Sacramento and other cities on when F9 last year sales, sales were IIRC better this time. Ofc that was 100 days to release vs 30 something this time but still.

Edited June 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

F9 OD

MTC1 - 42346/699529 560374.00 3401 shows (423 Theatres)

MTC2 - 36900/704186 452228.44 4652 shows(306 Theatres)

 

Good news is as @charlie Jatinder said, OD PS is better than previews with 5 more days of PS left. Still at raw numbers its disappointing. Let us see how things go final week. 

[charlie Jatinder]

So F9 MTC1 T-5 Days

 

Previews - ~37K ($540K)

OD - 42K ($560K)

 

MK OD at same time was ~31K in 424 theaters. It finaled 3.1x in pre-sales for OD.

 

That would mean around $1.7M final previews and around similar final PS for OD.  Adjusted for theaters not reported, final previews around $7.5M. Not sure how PSm for OD would be, MK had 1.9x while AQP2 was 2.7x. Something like 2.5x will see $19M True OD, while something like 2.1x may be just $15M. 

 

I will go with $55-65M OW for now, as I am going from last few weeks.

[Porthos]

On 6/18/2021 at 11:26 PM, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	87	11891	13384	1493	11.16%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	101
Total Seats Sold Today	79

 

T-6 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	153.95		67	949		5/75	2155/3104	44.04%		7.39m
F9 (adj)	---		79	1461		0/87	11803/13264	11.01%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

==

 

Meh.

 

One note.  Wasn't able to get an update from one of the Regals in town, but they aren't that heavily trafficked.  But if I can get an update before I head to bed, I'll edit into this post.

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	89	11878	13484	1606	11.91%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	100
Total Seats Sold Today	113

 

T-5 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	141.60		161	1110		6/76	2045/3155	54.28%		6.80m
F9 (adj)	---		111	1572		0/89	11792/13364	11.76%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

[Porthos]

On 6/18/2021 at 11:27 PM, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	105	16676	18618	1942	10.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

77

 

3.4433x the tickets that F9 sold at the same theaters at T-20 [1942 vs 564].

Black Widow has had 8 days of ticket sales while F9 had 4 days of ticket sales at this point in time.

 

No other official comps at the moment.

 

===

 

As noted in my last post, couldn't get an update at a theater.  If I can get an update, I'll edit in here.

 

 

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	105	16615	18618	2003	10.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

61

 

3.2675x the tickets that F9 sold at the same theaters at T-19 [2003 vs 613].

Black Widow has had 4 more days of ticket sales than F9 had at this point in time.

 

No other official comps at the moment.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	89	11878	13484	1606	11.91%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	100
Total Seats Sold Today	113

 

T-5 Comp                    USE WITH CAUTION

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	141.60		161	1110		6/76	2045/3155	54.28%		6.80m
F9 (adj)	---		111	1572		0/89	11792/13364	11.76%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

I'd like to get some folks thoughts about whether or not I should be artificially bumping up that AQP II comp by a bit or not.  Even though it will be only four weeks of difference, the movie theater landscape is still different now/will be on Thr than it was even then.  NY and CA have opened up the floodgates.  While AMC is dragging its feet, Regal and Cinemark are junking social distancing where they can.  More of Canada will be open by then, though admittedly still no Ontario.

 

I was also looking over my historical comps, and if AQP II were in a normal environment, Sacramento would have suggested something closer to 5.5m to 6.5m than the 4.8m it turned out to be (don't want to take the time right now to narrow the range). 

 

So I was thinking something of an ad-hoc  5 to 10 percent boost against AQP II, just like I had an ad-hoc 10 penalty for AQP II when compared to my historical comps.

 

Now, AMC is being AMC.  Still some caps across the nation (I presume).  And still no Ontario. So I don't think I'd feel comfortable doing a 100 percent comp against, say, Hobbs and Shaw.  But maybe 95% of H&S?  

 

Something to chew over at least.

[charlie Jatinder]

Hobbs and Shaw  vs F9 Final days at Sacramento

T-7 Day - 71 (453) vs 91 (1414) - 1.28x (3.12x)

T-6 Day - 43 (496) vs 79 (1493) - 1.8x (3.01x)

T-5 Day - 62 (558) vs 113 (1606) - 1.82x (2.88x)

T-4 Day - 89 (647)

T-3 Day - 133 (780)

T-2 Day - 260 (1040)

T-1 Day - 468 (1508)

Final - 2194 (3702)

 

Just to show backloaded FF franchise can be. Well not that F9 will be doing 7x from here like H&S did, but it can still do big. 

 

Edit: Comping with AQP2

 

A Quiet Place 2  vs F9 Final days at Sacramento

T-7 Day - 103 (922) vs 91 (1414) - 0.88x (1.53x)

T-6 Day - 71 (993) vs 79 (1493) - 1.11x (1.5x)

T-5 Day - 163 (1156) vs 113 (1606) - 0.69x (1.38x)

T-4 Day - 115 (1271)

T-3 Day - 240 (1511)

T-2 Day - 359 (1870)

T-1 Day - 523 (2393)

Final - 943 (3336)

 

I was thinking AQP2 will remain good comp in Sacramento, but even it was nowhere close to sort of explosion H&S had on final day. Before @Porthos calls me out on how I should have adjusted the comp for missing theater of Cinemawest, I just wanted to see the trend, comp on the absolute numbers.

Edited June 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

@Porthos comparing the absolute numbers, Hobbs and Shaw using $11 ATP was 0.7% of Nationwide in Sacramento while AQP2 was 0.77%. I will use absolute Hobbs and Shaw as comp for final number and adjust Canada. So for $8M, it will probably need 5400 ((8/5.8 * 3702) / 0.95) seats sold in Sacramento.

Edited June 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

34 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos comparing the absolute numbers, Hobbs and Shaw using $11 ATP was 0.7% of Nationwide in Sacramento while AQP2 was 0.77%. I will use absolute Hobbs and Shaw as comp for final number. So for $8M, it will probably need 5450 seats sold in Sacramento.

 

Don't forget those pesky theaters that I ain't including in the present track.  If I remove those theaters, H&S comes to 2,711 tickets sold.  Which if I understand your math right would be 0.514% of the Nationwide total.

 

And while F9 will have a couple of extra sources of info, I don't know if it'll be quite enough to make up for those three lost theaters.

 

EDITED::::

 

@charlie Jatinder

 

Prob should add the AQP II adjustment as well,

 

AQP II adj tickets was 3,084 tickets and using the same $11 ATP, in turn would be 0.707% of the nationwide total (have factors cutting in both directions as I have mentioned probably far too many times).

 

Don't know how that figures into your analysis, but I thot I should give the info.

Edited June 20, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

BTW, any and all analysis I've been making the last few days has partially been affected by the 100 to 110 degree heat (°F, of course) we've been getting locally frying my brain*.  So take that into account, s'il vous plaît.   

 

* FUN FACT:  Having the condenser unit shut down from overheating on one of the ACs you use while it is nearly 110 outside and thus shoot up the temperature in the rooms that particular AC was cooling (and by extension, the rest of the house) is probably a sign that one isn't going to have an enjoyable day.  👍

Edited June 20, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Hot day should be good for box office no? Since cinemas are indoor and Air Conditioned.

[Porthos]

32 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hot day should be good for box office no? Since cinemas are indoor and Air Conditioned.

 

Yes, but.... Gonna cool down by the time F9 opens, so no luck there,     Gonna be 92º F (33º C) or so on Thur, which is pretty much normal for this time of year.

 

The one thing that'll help is that 6pm to 7pm is around the time the "Delta Breeze" comes in from the Bay Area (when it does come in that is) and starts cooling the town down, so around 6:30pm to 8:30pm is the time Sacramentans like to travel about town. Stopping by a movie theater might be one of the items on the agenda.  On the other hand, that cool breeze on the face while you're enjoying life at a park is one of life's little pleasure we look forward to, so...

 

No, by our standards it won't be "hot" on Thursday.  Warm? Slightly above normal?  Sure.  But not "hot". That was the past few days.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

-snip-

Quite random but I hate summer. Winter's fun.

 

This year has been ok though. There were couple of days around 105-110 but mostly 95-105. Though forecast is of hitting 115 next week. 

[charlie Jatinder]

F9 in AUS. A$8.7M weekend. 

+20% Hobbs and Shaw
-32% FF8

 

If same applied to DOM 66-72M OW. Adjusting for Canada 62-67M.

[Eric Duncan]

On 6/18/2021 at 11:54 PM, Eric is Full of Pride said:

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	63	1141	9688	11.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 86

 

Comp

0.705x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-6 Before Release (6.84M)

1.271x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-6 Before Release (24.61M)

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	63	1294	9688	13.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 153

 

Comp

0.745x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-5 Before Release (7.23M)

1.255x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-5 Before Release (24.31M)

 

Sorry for not getting this up later. I was busy with a friend and things got too late and I really needed to go to bed. However, all these results, and Widow's, were tallied from last night.

[Eric Duncan]

On 6/18/2021 at 11:56 PM, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	1469	13155	11.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	1507	13155	11.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp

0.389x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Final Count (3.77M)

0.766x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu Final Count (3.68M)

0.291x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri Final Count (5.63M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

125

848

14.74%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

127

2062

6.16%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
847	75	15350	5.52%	15	82
$150 PWPs:	0
$200 PWPs:	0
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	2

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 397

 

Adjusted Hobbs comp: 9.99M

 

No AQP2 comp today, but FWIW, F9's just barely behind the two day pace of it. 

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

143

848

16.86%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

133

2062

6.45%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
927	80	15350	6.04%	15	82
$150 PWPs:	0
$200 PWPs:	0
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	2

 

A Quiet Place 2 comp: 7.43M

Adjusted Hobbs comp: 9.51M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

301

1980

15.20%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

316

1939

16.30%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1358	76	21278	6.38%	15	112
$150 PWPs:	2
$200 PWPs:	0
$250 PWPs:	0
$300 PWPs:	0
Total	2

 

TLK final count comp: 3.52M; adjusted: 2.85M

TRoS final count comp: 3.26M; adjusted: 2.81M

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

309

1980

15.61%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

318

1939

16.40%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1403	45	21278	6.59%	15	112
$150 PWPs:	2
$200 PWPs:	0
$250 PWPs:	0
$300 PWPs:	0
Total	2

 

TLK final count comp: 3.61M; adjusted: 2.92M

TRoS final count comp: 3.34M; adjusted: 2.89M