The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

343

1980

17.32%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

351

1939

18.10%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1584	84	21278	7.44%	15	112
$150 PWPs:	2
$200 PWPs:	0
$250 PWPs:	0
$300 PWPs:	0
Total	2

 

TLK final count comp: 4.04M; adjusted: 3.27M

TRoS final count comp: 3.74M; adjusted: 3.23M

a sudden bump ? hm

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/22/2021 at 1:59 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-16 days Thursday: 1884(+54)/21439 in 14 theaters. $26,334 with $14 ATP

 

T-17 days Friday: 1114(+38)/36370 in 14 theaters. $15,039 with $13.50 ATP

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-15 days Thursday: 1973(+89)/21439 in 14 theaters. $27,622 with $14 ATP

 

T-16 days Friday: 1188(+74)/36370 in 14 theaters. $16,038 with $13.50 ATP

 

Possibly a nice Loki boost with the MCU on people's minds? Denver looks like it too

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Possibly a nice Loki boost with the MCU on people's minds? Denver looks like it too

 

It's possible.  I seem to recall that TRoS got Mando boosts on occasion during its pre-sale period.  Might be misremembering though.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Fast 9 Megaplex

 

T-2 days Thursday: 1177(+237)/16127(+617) in 14 theaters. $16,478 with $14 ATP

 

T-3 days Friday: 1831(+351)/51703(+15412) in 14 theaters. $24,719 with $13.50 ATP

Fast 9 Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday: 1448(+271)/16575(+448) in 14 theaters. $20,272 with $14 ATP

 

T-2 days Friday: 2262(+431)/51703 in 14 theaters. $30,537 with $13.50 ATP

[el sid]

It's indeed strange how F9 is at most places overperforming and sometimes way behind: These were the numbers of „my“ 7 theaters today:

F9 (always the first number) vs Hobbs & Shaw:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 728 vs 649
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 369 vs 169
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 214 vs 21
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 16 vs 82
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 99 vs 86
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 390 vs 614
LA (AMC Universal): 989 vs 320

[Cmasterclay]

Bay Area lagging tracks with Porthos numbers underperforming

[Legion Again]

I’m back in the Bay Area right now and it’s nuts how many stores are still requiring masks for no reason. Feels like one of the slowest regions in the nation to return to normalcy behaviorally despite having great virus numbers for a long time now.

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Bay Area lagging tracks with Porthos numbers underperforming

 

Will note that I'm only comping currently against AQP II.  We're close enough to final bell that the H&S adjusted comp becomes an interesting benchmark:

 

H&S [adj]: 2,630 tickets sold at stop of tracking [does not include four Cinema West locations]

F9 [adj]:   2,362 tickets sold as of last night       [does not include Century Folsom, most of Century Roseville, and Century Laguna's DBOX showings]

 

H&S sold around 2,000 tickets in its last two days locally, and if I do an eyeball adjustment to try and guess how many seats I should remove for CW locations, that'd be about 1,700 tickets adj (extremely rough estimate).  So if F9 matches that exactly, it'd head for 4,050 tickets.  

 

4,050/2,630 ≈ 1.541 which would be ≈ 8.93m.  Chop off 5% for lack of Ontario and minor caps still around, and we get 8.48m.

Consider that the optimistic scenario, especially if AQP II over-performed here [relative to the rest of the country]. 

Edited June 24, 2021 by Porthos
Adjusted some numbers as I accidentally didn't removed one of the CW theaters from the H&S comp

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, Menor said:

Looking at @keysersoze123 data for AQP2, PS for Thursday on T-1 was 32k. In my system that would probably be ~28k due to the DBOX issue. Currently F9 is at 43k and did about 6k yesterday. Say it does 7k today (very lowball) it will still be about 1.75x where AQP2 was at the same point. In fact, I think it really should be higher. A little odd, considering our data from Sac, Denver, and Philly is all pointing to comps lower than that. Perhaps it's just that more regions/theaters are doing good business now. 

I unfortunately dont either have the time or energy to debug at this point. 

 

Anyway MTC1 data for F9. 

Previews - 67647/506916 965359.00 3034 shows

Friday -  91549/1083834 1174406.00 6086 shows

 

Dramatic increase in showcount as expected. If MTC1 is around 20% then high single digit or even double digit previews are possible with good walkups. Since Fast movies target audience outside big markets as well, I expect MTC1 share to be lower than for other blockbusters. Friday looks like 15m+ at this point, may be even close to 20m if walkups are good. So somewhere around 50-65m OW at this point. Still meh relative to what Fast series have done previously but this looks like beating AQP2 for sure. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

For record of future

 

Keyser update is T-1 days + 6 hours (PST)

 

Estimating for rest 6 hours, probably 73K THU and 99K FRI. 

 

Previews - $4.05M

Friday - $4.7M

Rest probably $4.7M+

 

Total - $13.5M

 

If I have to guess $8.5-9M final THU and $7.5-8M final FRI PS. Let's see what sort of PSm we get.

 

 

Edited June 24, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	97	1938	17196	11.27%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today: 1

Total Showings Added Today: 27

Total Seats Added Today: 6,564

Total Seats Sold Today: 319

 

Comp

0.741x of Godzilla vs. Kong 2 Days Before Release (7.19M)

0.755x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-2 Before Release (14.63M)

 

Yeah, feel like the 7M range is pretty solid at the moment, unless it just dies the next two days. Which hey, seems pretty good, especially if this ends up a bit more backloaded like people here are suggesting.

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	105	2526	18482	13.67%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 8

Total Seats Added Today: 1,286

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 588

 

Comp

0.869x of Godzilla vs. Kong 1 Day Before Release (8.43M)

0.717x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-1 Before Release (13.89M)

 

Pretty solid day today, though, like always, the last day will really determine whether this opens in the 7M range or 8M range.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	1720	16722	10.29%

 

Total Seats Added Today: 3,567

Total Seats Sold Today: 92

 

Comp

0.444x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Final Count (4.30M)

2.345x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-16 Before Release (22.77M)

0.874x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu Final Count (4.20M)

0.332x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri Final Count (6.43M)

 

This really does show just how much the lack of social distancing can really help when it comes to seat additions. I really didn't expect the seat count to grow that much. Anyways...yeah, film's still doing very solid business.

Black Widow Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	80	1767	16722	10.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 47

 

Comp

0.456x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Final Count (4.42M)

2.121x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-15 Before Release (20.58M)

0.898x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu Final Count (4.31M)

0.341x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri Final Count (6.61M)

[Borobudur]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I unfortunately dont either have the time or energy to debug at this point. 

 

Anyway MTC1 data for F9. 

Previews - 67647/506916 965359.00 3034 shows

Friday -  91549/1083834 1174406.00 6086 shows

 

Dramatic increase in showcount as expected. If MTC1 is around 20% then high single digit or even double digit previews are possible with good walkups. Since Fast movies target audience outside big markets as well, I expect MTC1 share to be lower than for other blockbusters. Friday looks like 15m+ at this point, may be even close to 20m if walkups are good. So somewhere around 50-65m OW at this point. Still meh relative to what Fast series have done previously but this looks like beating AQP2 for sure. 

 

AQP2 opening isn't a very high bar to beat even if we factor in franchise fatigue. A 60m opening could spell headline doom during normal time but now, this 60m is a life-saving moment for box office 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 6/22/2021 at 8:33 PM, Menor said:

Black Widow MTC2

 

Friday

Showtimes: 4948 (+2)

Seats Sold: 21522/770131 (+1023)

 

There was something weird with the Thursday run, it was giving me 72k tickets sold, so no real Thursday number for today. 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 2874 (+13 in two days)

Seats Sold: 38726/441038 (+3537 in two days)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 4948 (+0)

Seats Sold: 23261/771001 (+1739)

 

I took the update a little late today, but it does seem like there might have been a bump. Now for the real good stuff with F9.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

For record of future

 

Keyser update is T-1 days + 6 hours (PST)

 

Estimating for rest 6 hours, probably 72K THU and 97K FRI. 

 

Previews - $3.9M

Friday - $4.5M

Rest probably $4.5M+

 

If I have to guess $8.5-9M final THU and $7.5-8M final FRI PS. Let's see what sort of PSm we get.

 

PS. Will update when I see @Menor numbers. For now, took 52K THU and 64K FRI.

Fast franchise late bumps come through again.

 

F9 MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 3239 (+190)

Seats Sold: 57117/418403 (+14108)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 6583 (+358)

Seats Sold: 73924/906455 (+22264)

 

Excellent late bumps. It's already nearly matched AQP2 final Friday PS at MTC2 with the biggest day left to go. Though the ratio at MTC1 isn't as good, for previews I will go with 9-9.5 and True Friday perhaps 20. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4M Previews PS. $8M is all but certain I guess. May be $9M even, but I will go with $8.5M.

 

As for FRI, a lot depend on PSm but considering how pre-sales are backloaded, PSm should be too right. A 2x will give only $16M while 2.5x will go for $20M. Hopefully not something like 3x. 👀

 

Even after knowing that this will be very very backloaded in sales, it sucks to see it in real.

Edited June 24, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	143	15720	18180	2460	13.53%

 

Total Showings Added Today	21*
Total Seats Added Today	919
Total Seats Sold Today	397

* Includes five showings from non-reserved seating theaters

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	136.38		329	1759		25/111	2247/4006	43.91%		6.55m
F9 (adj)	---		378	2399		0/143	15661/18060	13.28%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

====

 

Still not headed in the right direction in Sacramento, but if I apply that 105% adjustment to AQP II comp I mused about a couple of days ago (due to social distancing being removed and whatnot), then the AQP II comp comes out to 6.9m.  Which is, well, you know.

 

The good news is that for my final report on Thr I can adjust for the Cinema West theaters that are acting up and do a comp against Hobbs & Shaw and whatever else I think might be interesting, though I'd still apply an adjustment of some sort for the lack of Ontario plus the states that still have caps/distancing.  

 

Still, not taking off in Sacramento, and I doubt it was because of Cinemark acting up, as I had little trouble accessing it at 7:30pm my time.

 

(BW report in a couple of hours)

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	168	17632	20531	2899	14.12%

 

Showings Where Cap Was Lifted	1
Total Showings Added Today	25*
Total Seats Added Today	2351
Total Seats Sold Today	439

* Includes two showings from non-reserved seating theaters

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	126.49		480	2239		21/118	2454/4693	47.71%		6.07m
F9 (adj)	---		433	2832		0/168	17579/20411	13.87%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

====

 

 

105% AQP II adj = 6.4m

 

Did slightly outpace H&S's T-1 pace I think (eyeballing an adjustment for H&S puts it at around 400 tickets sold) which could mean that F9 does something similar tomorrow that H&S did on its Opening Night.  But maybe we just have a double whammy of AQP II over-performing locally and F9 underperforming.  I'll know more once I get some comps that I can officially adjust tomorrow.  Maybe add John Wick 3??

 

(the biggest wildcard is how much of the US/Canada re-opened/had caps lifted relative to Sacramento a month ago)

Edited June 24, 2021 by Porthos
Changed my H&S comp thoughts as I realized it did better than my comments warrented IF my earlier post's musing was correct

[Porthos]

20 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	16861	19134*	2273	11.88%

* NOTE: A couple of seat maps were adjusted resulting in four more seats being available in the region.

 

Total Seats Today

84

 

2.8377x the tickets that F9 sold at the same theaters at T-16 [2273 vs 801].

Black Widow has had 4 more days of ticket sales than F9 has had at this point in the track.

No other official comps at the moment.

 

Black Widow Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	16753	19134	2381	12.44%

 

Total Seats Today

108

 

2.7399x the tickets that F9 sold at the same theaters at T-15 [2381 vs 869].

Black Widow has had 4 more days of ticket sales than F9 has had at this point in the track.

No other official comps at the moment.

 

====

 

Slightly misleading total seats sold, as there was a group sale of 20 tickets sold at a showing, which inflated the total a bit.  Even with that taken out, fairly strong total for T-15.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	168	17632	20531	2899	14.12%

 

Showings Where Cap Was Lifted	1
Total Showings Added Today	25*
Total Seats Added Today	2351
Total Seats Sold Today	439

* Includes two showings from non-reserved seating theaters

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
AQP II (adj)	126.49		480	2239		21/118	2454/4693	47.71%		6.07m
F9 (adj)	---		433	2832		0/168	17579/20411	13.87%		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE 1:  AQP II (adj) is the amount of seats sold after the theaters which currently have unreliable data polluting their seat maps have been removed.

 

====

 

 

105% AQP II adj = 6.4m

 

Did slightly outpace H&S's T-1 pace I think (eyeballing an adjustment for H&S puts it at around 400 tickets sold) which could mean that F9 does something similar tomorrow that H&S did on its Opening Night.  But maybe we just have a double whammy of AQP II over-performing locally and F9 underperforming.  I'll know more once I get some comps that I can officially adjust tomorrow.  Maybe add John Wick 3??

 

(the biggest wildcard is how much of the US/Canada re-opened/had caps lifted relative to Sacramento a month ago)

 

So I did some digging in my files, and this is how things currently stand with a Wick 3, H&S, and F9 comps:

 

H&S [Final Adj]:     2,630 tickets sold | 5.8m previews [had a slightly wrong number earlier]

Wick 3 [Final Adj]: 2,722 tickets sold | 5.9m previews

F9 [T-1 Adj]:         2,777 ticket sold  | ??? previews.

---

AQP II  [Final Adj]: 3,084 tickets sold | 4.8m previews

F9 [T-1 Adj]:         2,832 tickets sold | ??? previews

 

Choose Your Adventure time.  Has enough of the box office recovered to be more like Track 1, even with some adjustments for lack of Ontario, or are things more like Track 2?  Data from the resident trackers here on this thread suggests the former.  

So those comps against H&S and Wick 3 do make me feel better about F9's chances.  Just wish I really knew why AQP II did so much better locally than would be suggested from this data.

 

*does some more digging*

 

It 2 sold 5,659 tickets to AQP II [(slightly different) adj]'s 3,172.  That's suggests that AQP II over-performed even after a 10% slice was made for lack of Canada at the time.  AQP II was more like 18% over what a pure It 2 comp would have suggested.  A pure It 2 comp would have suggested 2,587 tickets sold for AQP II [adj].  If I did my math right.

 

So, yeah.  Just have to wait and see if F9 locally is more like H&S/Wick 3, even with some adjustments for lack of Canada and other capping or if it is more like AQP II, with allowances for more theaters/seats reopening in the last month.

Edited June 24, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

So I did some digging in my files, and this is how things currently stand with a Wick 3, H&S, and F9 comps:

 

H&S [Final Adj]:     2,630 tickets sold | 5.8m previews [had a slightly wrong number earlier]

Wick 3 [Final Adj]: 2,722 tickets sold | 5.9m previews

F9 [T-1 Adj]:         2,777 ticket sold  | ??? previews.

---

AQP II  [Final Adj]: 3,084 tickets sold | 4.8m previews

F9 [T-1 Adj]:         2,832 tickets sold | ??? previews

 

Choose Your Adventure time.  Has enough of the box office recovered to be more like Track 1, even with some adjustments for lack of Ontario, or are things more like Track 2?  Data from the resident trackers here on this thread suggests the former.  

So those comps against H&S and Wick 3 do make me feel better about F9's chances.  Just wish I really knew why AQP II did so much better locally than would be suggested from this data.

 

*does some more digging*

 

It 2 sold 5,659 tickets to AQP II [(slightly different) adj]'s 3,172.  That's suggests that AQP II over-performed even after a 10% slice was made for lack of Canada at the time.  AQP II was more like 18% over what a pure It 2 comp would have suggested.  A pure It 2 comp would have suggested 2,587 tickets sold for AQP II [adj].  If I did my math right.

 

So, yeah.  Just have to wait and see if F9 locally is more like H&S/Wick 3, even with some adjustments for lack of Canada and other capping or if it is more like AQP II, with allowances for more theaters/seats reopening in the last month.

Edit: misread

Edited June 24, 2021 by Menor