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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 7/4/2021 at 7:32 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Movie Day City Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Black Widow T-4 Jacksonville 6 64 11,033 1,078 50 9.77%
    Phoenix 6 54 8,942 919 66 10.28%
    Raleigh 7 47 5,835 1,392 80 23.86%
Black Widow Total     19 165 25,810 3,389 196 13.13%
Escape Room 2 T-11 Jacksonville 5 16 2,528 2 2 0.08%
    Phoenix 5 14 1,409 3 3 0.21%
    Raleigh 7 22 2,106 7 7 0.33%
Escape Room 2 Total     17 52 6,043 12 12 0.20%
Space Jam T-12 Jacksonville 5 25 4,140 43 4 1.04%
    Phoenix 5 17 2,120 30 6 1.42%
    Raleigh 7 29 3,746 56 9 1.49%
Space Jam Total     17 71 10,006 129 19 1.29%

 

BW preparing for take off -

 

HzZgN3K.png

 

Movie Day City Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
Black Widow T-3 Jacksonville 6 65 11,177 1,130 52 10.11%
    Phoenix 6 54 8,942 959 40 10.72%
    Raleigh 7 48 5,935 1,492 100 25.14%
Black Widow Total     19 167 26,054 3,581 192 13.74%
Escape Room 2 T-10 Jacksonville 5 16 2,528 2 0 0.08%
    Phoenix 5 14 1,409 5 2 0.35%
    Raleigh 7 22 2,106 7 0 0.33%
Escape Room 2 Total     17 52 6,043 14 2 0.23%
Space Jam T-11 Jacksonville 5 25 4,140 47 4 1.14%
    Phoenix 5 17 2,120 34 4 1.60%
    Raleigh 7 29 3,746 69 13 1.84%
Space Jam Total     17 71 10,006 150 21 1.50%

 

BW compared to F9

 

F9 T-3

Jacksonville - 406 (2.783x)

Phoenix - 480 (1.998x)

Raleigh - 562 (2.655x)

 

The take off did not happen.  In fact, BW had 15 less tickets sold on T-3 than F9 did.  Like others have said, we can attribute this to the holiday and hope we see a much bigger number for today.  Tomorrow I'll be pulling the f-s-s numbers as well.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Menor said:

Black Widow MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 3159 (+66)

Seats Sold: 65214/466789 (+4612)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 5183 (+66)

Seats Sold: 49377/795047 (+5406)

 

Thursday ramp up is fine but honestly I expected more acceleration in the last couple of days. I conservatively am going with 14m previews (170k finish at MTC2) for now, let's hope it can go higher. Friday seems healthy and I think it can double Thursday. 

 

GvK overperformed big time at MTC2, but a straight up comp gives ~13 million for previews. That will probably decline a bit in the next couple of days and then jump at the end as GvK had somewhat limited walkups. MTC1 numbers look much better.

 

Edit: This is from yesterday afternoon. I forgot to post yesterday. So don't take these as Sunday numbers (as that would make the pace disastrously slow). Should have made that clear in the original post. 

Black Widow MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 3188 (+29)

Seats Sold: 70818/470745 (+5604)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 5193 (+10)

Seats Sold: 56103/796795 (+6726)

 

As I alluded to last night, pretty meh bumps especially for Thursday. Hopefully today sees stronger results. 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I guess Sunday drops are pretty evident of July 4 impact

 


On a whim, I wanted to see just how much of a 4th of July effect was going on yesterday, so I took a quick(-ish) sample at 4pm alongside my normal end of day count.

 

Sample taken at 4:15pm - 4:55pm:  185 tickets sold since Sat night.

Sample taken at 9:45pm - 10:25pm: 120 tickets sold since 4pm sample.

 

See, "normally" there is usually a really nice boost in ticket sales post-5pm/6pm on a Sunday Night.  At least from what I recall watching Pulse back in the day (*pours a 40 out in remembrance for Pulse*), and I was fairly curious to see how much of a bump BW would get when everyone was trying to blow up the neighborhood out and about.

 

While there were some nice jumps at a couple of theaters, ngl, was expecting a bit more in that post 5pm period.  I don't know how much more, but it became pretty clear to me that the 4th was not only having an effect pre-4pm, but it was post-4pm as well.

 

Now don't get me wrong, I do like BW's trend overall.  But it's pretty clear that the 4th had an effect, yes. 

Edited by Porthos
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Porthos said:


On a whim, I wanted to see just how much of a 4th of July effect was going on yesterday, so I took a quick(-ish) sample at 4pm alongside my normal end of day count.

 

Sample taken at 4:15pm - 4:55pm:  185 tickets sold since Sat night.

Sample taken at 9:45pm - 10:25pm: 120 tickets sold since 4pm sample.

 

See, "normally" there is usually a really nice boost in ticket sales post-5pm/6pm on a Sunday Night.  At least from what I recall watching Pulse back in the day (*pours a 40 out in remembrance for Pulse*), and I was fairly curious to see how much of a bump BW would get when everyone was trying to blow up the neighborhood out and about.

 

While there were some nice jumps at a couple of theaters, ngl, was expecting a bit more in that post 5pm period.  I don't know how much more, but it became pretty clear to me that the 4th was not only having an effect pre-4pm, but it was post-4pm as well.

 

Now don't get me wrong, I do like BW's trend overall.  But it's pretty clear that the 4th had an effect, yes. 

Pulse though was also affected by the sales of films currently in release as it was just sample data rather than absolute numbers. So I'm not sure how much of that trend was real, since even if PS were static you would expect them to take up a bigger portion of the pie on Sunday night as films currently in release peter out. 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Pulse though was also affected by the sales of films currently in release as it was just sample data rather than absolute numbers. So I'm not sure how much of that trend was real, since even if PS were static you would expect them to take up a bigger portion of the pie on Sunday night as films currently in release peter out. 

 

Fair enough, but I do think seeing a bump post 5pm as people start to set their plans for the week ahead helps explain why there is usually a noticeable jump in sales between Sunday and Saturday.

 

(If I really cared that much, one of these days I'd do a sample every couple of hours on a Sunday Before Launch for a big blockbuster and compare it to either the Friday or Saturday before)

((SPOILER ALERT: I, in fact, do not care that much. 👍))

Edited by Porthos
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 576 1980 29.09%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 578 2428 23.81%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2816 168 26062 10.81% 15 150

 

F9 comp: 21.57M

TLK comp: 16.35M

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 595 1980 30.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 623 2428 25.66%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3119 303 26062 11.97% 15 150

 

F9 comp: 20.97M

AQP2 comp: 19.07M

TLK comp: 16.19M

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 595 1980 30.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 623 2428 25.66%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3119 303 26062 11.97% 15 150

 

F9 comp: 20.97M

AQP2 comp: 19.07M

TLK comp: 16.19M

Considering the time of day that you normally post, much bigger jump than I expected. 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-4 days Thursday(91 showings): 3440(+243)/25346 in 14 theaters. $48,160 with $14 ATP

 

T-5 days Friday(102 showings): 2878(+265)/36855 in 14 theaters. $38,853 with $13.50 ATP

Black Widow Megaplex

 

T-3 days Thursday(91 showings): 3779(+339)/25346 in 14 theaters. $52,906 with $14 ATP

 

T-4 days Friday(102 showings): 3289(+411)/36855 in 14 theaters. $44,402 with $13.50 ATP

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Considering the time of day that you normally post, much bigger jump than I expected. 

Yeah I was pretty surprised. Maybe since today is ID observance, people made plans for Thursday earlier in the day than usual.

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
On 7/4/2021 at 2:19 PM, TalismanRing said:

Oi... the last time I tracked was Onward....  my old chart is under the spoiler cut

 

BW:  13 shows. 2 RPX, One 3D

 

As of 1pm, Sunday: July 4th -  224/3584 = 6.25%

 

Comps: (Monday)

 

Avengers: Endgame: 3948/4,736 (12am :lol:)

The Lion King:  236/3228 (6:30pm)

Hobbs & Shaw: 60/1543 (5:20pm)

IT Part 2:  147/2764 (9am)

Joker:  328/3536 (4:20pm)

Frozen 2: 122/1824 (4pm)

     

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

Monday (5pm)

 

Black Widow: 239/3584 = 6.66%

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ThomasNicole Blockbuster

ThomasNicole

Posted
Posted

Per Deadline:

Industry estimates project that the Scarlett Johansson standalone movie can feasibly open to between $80M-$90M at the domestic B.O.

 

Seems like they're been a little cautious. Correct me if i'm wrong but pre sales does make it looks like 90M is kinda easy with a reasonable shot at +100M.

 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Per Deadline:

Industry estimates project that the Scarlett Johansson standalone movie can feasibly open to between $80M-$90M at the domestic B.O.

 

Seems like they're been a little cautious. Correct me if i'm wrong but pre sales does make it looks like 90M is kinda easy with a reasonable shot at +100M.

 

I think 90 is fairly likely, 100 possible but needs good boosts/walkups, 80 would be really presale-heavy at this point. 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Per Deadline:

Industry estimates project that the Scarlett Johansson standalone movie can feasibly open to between $80M-$90M at the domestic B.O.

 

Seems like they're been a little cautious. Correct me if i'm wrong but pre sales does make it looks like 90M is kinda easy with a reasonable shot at +100M.

 

 

42 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think 90 is fairly likely, 100 possible but needs good boosts/walkups, 80 would be really presale-heavy at this point. 

 

"Fairly likely" is exactly how I would put it. Maybe even "very likely", though that might be expectations of this board talking (see point four below).

 

There are a few variables here which makes things a bit more uncertain than a normal Marvel release.

 

1] The biggie: How much has the DOM actually recovered.  It's been hashed (and rehashed) to death, so consider all the comments as said.

2] The elephant in the room: How will PA affect things? I reckon there is next to no effect on opening night (fans be crazy and all that).  Into the weekend? Open question. Even a minor affect could knock of a couple of million from the OW.  This has also been hashed to death (if not quite rehashed), so it really is "wait and see".

3] How is the MCU fare on D+ affecting things?  Is it getting fans even more hyped, or is it satiating them to some degree? Fans be buzzing a lot over Loki, but I still think it is a tad uncertain how it'll play out for the OW of a mostly unrelated film.

4] This board.... Hmmm.  How to put it.  I think a good chunk of this board is somewhat pre-disposed to look at ambiguous numbers and take away a positive slant*.  Which in turn might be bumping up our collective expectations a smidge.

* Not unreasonable, either, given Marvel's massively impressive track record,

 

Everything else is pretty standard (Marvel solo film that is getting good reviews; timing release concerns, ZUN9w3L.gif).

 

Edited by Porthos
Edited out last comment as I was thinking more "studio estimates" than "industry estimates"
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

@ThomasNicole

 

There is also an undeniable "C'mon now" factor at play.  If F9 can get 70m OW, then, c'mon now, surely BW can hit 90m.

 

Is it reasonable to have that "C'mon now" attitude?  Well, this is Marvel.  Think I kinda have to give them the benefit of the doubt until given a reason not to.

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ThomasNicole Blockbuster

ThomasNicole

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@ThomasNicole

 

There is also an undeniable "C'mon now" factor at play.  If F9 can get 70m OW, then, c'mon now, surely BW can hit 90m.

 

Is it reasonable to have that "C'mon now" attitude?  Well, this is Marvel.  Think I kinda have to give them the benefit of the doubt until given a reason not to.

If it wasn't the PA i would think it is a reasonable attitude.

 

We all know at this point day on day don't destroy big movies, but it's hard to determinate how much it takes from box office so even 80M i would see as a win. 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@ThomasNicole

 

There is also an undeniable "C'mon now" factor at play.  If F9 can get 70m OW, then, c'mon now, surely BW can hit 90m.

 

Is it reasonable to have that "C'mon now" attitude?  Well, this is Marvel.  Think I kinda have to give them the benefit of the doubt until given a reason not to.

Also backed up by the PS. If not for PA I would have little uncertainty saying over 90 million as the PS is well ahead of F9 (except for yesterday in some areas, but from a look at MTC2 today I suspect that will be rectified tonight). 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Menor said:

Black Widow MTC2

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 3188 (+29)

Seats Sold: 70818/470745 (+5604)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 5193 (+10)

Seats Sold: 56103/796795 (+6726)

 

As I alluded to last night, pretty meh bumps especially for Thursday. Hopefully today sees stronger results. 

I don't have 24-hour data yet (that will be later tonight or tomorrow morning) but it has already sold 7362 more tickets for Thursday in less than a day after only selling 5604 in a day and a half and it's running at 800 tickets/hr at this point. It will be double yesterday's 24-hr pace which is crazy big for a Monday bump. July 4 certainly had an effect yesterday but now it's back on track. 

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